Thread by @joni_askola

1/12 Beyond symbolism: What potential objectives might Ukraine have in the current Kursk region incursion?

2/12 The magnitude and apparent success of this incursion have exceeded previous ones, catching everyone off guard. Yet, due to limited information, we must await a comprehensive assessment of the outcomes while attempting to evaluate Ukraine's objectives in the meantime.

3/12 As I mentioned in yesterday's thread, this operation could involve military and political objectives, both of which will require time to evaluate for success.

4/12 Militarily, the ongoing incursion could lead to the russians moving troops to that area, reducing the deployment capacity on the main front. It would require a significant troop movement for russia to consider it worthwhile, but it is not totally out of the question.

5/12 This operation could have numerous political ramifications. It is a source of humiliation for Putin and serves to demonstrate to both russians and the global community that his level of control may not be as absolute as he portrays it to be.

6/12 This could awaken some russians to the realities of war on their own soil, prompting some to become more pro-war while others become more anti-war. It's important for Ukraine to garner as much opposition from russians as possible.

7/12 This operation underscores the insignificance of Putin's red lines, dispelling the West's fears of escalation. It leaves Scholz with no excuse to withhold Taurus missiles and the US with no reason to refrain from using its weapons to prevent strikes on russian airfields.

8/12 This operation can offer hope not only to Ukrainians but also to Ukraine's allies. It instills hope across the globe that the front can still shift, challenging the prevailing pessimism and the push for negotiations, which favor russia, as being disconnected from reality.

9/12 This operation provides Ukraine with russian prisoners of war, enabling the potential exchange to secure the release of Ukrainians held in russian captivity. This is vital for morale and fairness, especially considering the reported torture of Ukrainians in russian custody.

10/12 Above all, if Ukraine retains even a portion of the captured territories, it could provide leverage to prevent freezing the lines and strengthen their position in potential negotiations.

11/12 Nonetheless, it's important to bear in mind that while these may be some of Ukraine's potential objectives, it's premature to evaluate the success, and we can expect more clarity in the coming days.

12/12 Sources:

reuters.com/world/europe/r…

https://x.com/joni_askola/status/1821173938677829965

understandingwar.org/backgrounder/r…