1/12 Beyond symbolism: What potential objectives might Ukraine have in the current Kursk region incursion?
2/12 The magnitude and apparent success of this incursion have exceeded previous ones, catching everyone off guard. Yet, due to limited information, we must await a comprehensive assessment of the outcomes while attempting to evaluate Ukraine's objectives in the meantime.
3/12 As I mentioned in yesterday's thread, this operation could involve military and political objectives, both of which will require time to evaluate for success.
4/12 Militarily, the ongoing incursion could lead to the russians moving troops to that area, reducing the deployment capacity on the main front. It would require a significant troop movement for russia to consider it worthwhile, but it is not totally out of the question.
5/12 This operation could have numerous political ramifications. It is a source of humiliation for Putin and serves to demonstrate to both russians and the global community that his level of control may not be as absolute as he portrays it to be.
6/12 This could awaken some russians to the realities of war on their own soil, prompting some to become more pro-war while others become more anti-war. It's important for Ukraine to garner as much opposition from russians as possible.
7/12 This operation underscores the insignificance of Putin's red lines, dispelling the West's fears of escalation. It leaves Scholz with no excuse to withhold Taurus missiles and the US with no reason to refrain from using its weapons to prevent strikes on russian airfields.
8/12 This operation can offer hope not only to Ukrainians but also to Ukraine's allies. It instills hope across the globe that the front can still shift, challenging the prevailing pessimism and the push for negotiations, which favor russia, as being disconnected from reality.
9/12 This operation provides Ukraine with russian prisoners of war, enabling the potential exchange to secure the release of Ukrainians held in russian captivity. This is vital for morale and fairness, especially considering the reported torture of Ukrainians in russian custody.
10/12 Above all, if Ukraine retains even a portion of the captured territories, it could provide leverage to prevent freezing the lines and strengthen their position in potential negotiations.
11/12 Nonetheless, it's important to bear in mind that while these may be some of Ukraine's potential objectives, it's premature to evaluate the success, and we can expect more clarity in the coming days.
1/11 Scared coward: Putin's fear to mobilize is justified, as a russian mobilization would ultimately work in Ukraine's favor in the long term.
2/11 Following Putin's mobilization in the fall of 2022, which was unsuccessful, many russians felt betrayed in their social contract with him and a considerable number fled the country. Consequently, Putin is scared to mobilize again.
3/11 russia is facing increasing difficulty in recruitment. While it does manage to recruit a significant number of men, the need to cover losses has led to a substantial increase in signing bonuses in order to attract enough recruits.
1/7 Four possible explanations for why iran keeps delaying its retaliation against Israel
2/7 One potential reason is that it allows Iran to carefully plan and prepare its retaliation, as well as to coordinate with its proxies in the Middle East.
3/7 Another potential reason is iran's fear of escalation, leading to hesitation as they make careful calculations. They aim to avoid losing face while steering clear of a full-scale war with Israel.
1/9 Karma: russia is getting exactly what it deserves, and this is just the beginning.
2/9 russia's invasion and genocide of Ukraine are as illegitimate as they come, and russia is well aware of this. The fact that russia had to conceal and deceive about their invasion plan and resort to false excuses provides strong evidence of this.
3/9 russia's invasion of Ukraine, a former and current victim of russian imperialism, mirrors the behavior of an extremely violent and toxic ex-partner stalking their ex and preventing them from moving on, but resulting in thousands of monthly deaths.
1/16 Kursk: now that russia's reinforcements have arrived, what is Ukraine's next move?
2/16 On the 4th day of the Kursk incursion, Ukraine has managed to exceed expectations, surprising everyone. While the situation is not yet fully clear, Ukraine has achieved a significant PR victory. How can Ukraine capitalize on this success to achieve more than a morale boost?
3/16 It is quite challenging to anticipate Ukraine's next steps, as even if we can speculate about some of the military and political objectives, without a clear understanding of the military goals, predicting the next moves becomes difficult.
1/9 Exactly what she needs: Tim Walz is the perfect choice to be Harris' running mate.
2/9 Vice President Kamala Harris has made a decision on her running mate, with four people close to the process saying Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota is her choice.
3/9 Walz, formerly a high school football coach, has transformed during his tenure in office into somewhat of a progressive populist figure – precisely the kind of outspoken voice that Democrats challenging Trump are eager to emphasize.
1/11 Useless in exile: russia will only abandon its invasion once its population becomes fatigued and realizes that the war cannot be won. Until then, the opposition in exile holds no significant influence.
2/11 Some russian opposition figures have a good reason for choosing to take the risk of remaining in russia or returning there. It is impossible to exert any significant influence in russia while living abroad.
3/11 This fact also clarifies why Putin is willing to swap and send opposition figures out of russia. It is probable that Putin will continue to do so in future exchanges if given the opportunity.