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https://x.com/ChristopherJM/status/1821086440593236385

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Artur Rehi

@ArturRehi

Apr 2

The sharp rise in oil prices due to the war in Iran strongly plays into russia’s hands, as prices for russian oil grades have exceeded 100 dollars per barrel and Asian countries such as Vietnam, Thailand, the Philippines, Indonesia and Sri Lanka are actively ordering russian
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oil, increasing the likelihood that demand in the region will exceed russian supply. This is driven by the easing of US sanctions. This allows russia, despite waging an aggressive war, to improve its standing on the international stage. Along with oil contracts, russia also

offers investments in other sectors and new business opportunities, including military cooperation. Thus, instead of isolation and toxicity, russia gains new markets and expands its influence. All thanks to Trump. However, oil is not only russia’s strength but also its most

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Artur Rehi

@ArturRehi

Mar 27

Russia is facing severe budget problems and is looking for additional ways to replenish it. At a closed meeting with oligarchs held on March 26 after the congress of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs (RSPP), Vladimir Putin stated his intention to continue
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the war against Ukraine and proposed that large businesses make voluntary contributions to the budget. This was reported by The Bell citing sources familiar with the discussion. “They said, we will keep fighting,” one source summarized Putin’s remarks. “We will go to the borders

of Donbas,” another added. Some businessmen responded to the request immediately during the meeting. Suleiman Kerimov promised to contribute 100 billion rubles (~ $1.22 bln), according to The Bell’s sources. At least one other major businessman present at the meeting supported

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Artur Rehi

@ArturRehi

Mar 24

The story of internet shutdowns in Russia is not an accident and not a “temporary measure.” It is a system that has been built for years and has now simply begun to operate at full capacity. What many people saw in Moscow in March 2026 - the inability to pay a bill,
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open a map, or simply send a message - has long been the norm for other regions; Moscow has simply been the last to enter this reality. The timeline is important here: back in 2019, the law on the “sovereign internet” was adopted - formally to protect against external threats,

but in reality to create an infrastructure for centralized traffic control, forcing operators to install equipment under state supervision. This was followed by annual drills in which the network was tested for isolation and autonomous operation - no longer theory, but

Read 22 tweets

Artur Rehi

@ArturRehi

Mar 23

Exports of Russian oil through Baltic Sea ports - the main channel for shipping “black gold” abroad - have been completely halted, Reuters reports citing industry sources familiar with the situation. According to them, due to a drone attack on the Leningrad region, which 🧵

became the largest since the start of the war and involved at least 60 UAVs, both Baltic ports - Primorsk and Ust-Luga - have stopped operations, and together they handle up to half of all oil exported from Russia. On the evening of March 22, Leningrad region governor

Alexander Drozdenko reported a drone attack on Primorsk, through which about 1 million barrels per day are exported. According to him, several fuel storage tanks caught fire in the port. Reuters sources also report that shipments at the port of Ust-Luga, through which oil

Read 6 tweets

Artur Rehi

@ArturRehi

Mar 19

Vladimir Putin has stopped appearing at public events in the Kremlin after details emerged about a US and Israeli operation to eliminate Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. As previously reported by Financial Times, before the strike Israeli intelligence tracked

Khamenei’s movements using hacked surveillance cameras. According to calculations by the outlet “Agentstvo,” the last time Putin held a public event in the Kremlin was on March 9 - a meeting on the situation in the global oil and gas market. After that, according to the

presidential press service, he met several times with regional governors, the Minister of Education, and the head of Sberbank, and also participated in Security Council meetings via video link. However, as “Agentstvo” notes, such meetings are often recorded in advance,

Read 11 tweets

Artur Rehi

@ArturRehi

Mar 18

The Estonian initiative currently being discussed in the EU to ban former Russian army combatants from entering the Schengen area should become a model for others. And here is why. The issue is not only that they pose a threat to society through the risk of committing crimes -
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these individuals also pose a threat to state integrity. At present, citizens from more than 120 countries and unrecognized territories are fighting on Russia’s side. The largest numbers of mercenaries come from countries such as Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Nepal

Armenia, Moldova, Georgia, China, India, Egypt, as well as numerous African countries. These individuals are trained fighters who have undergone military preparation in an army where nearly 200,000 personnel are criminals recruited from penal colonies, pre-trial detention centers

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