Thread by @emilkastehelmi

Kursk offensive, situation update:

Ukrainians have pushed further in all directions. They have at least a partial control of Sudzha and they're pushing towards Koronevo-Rylsk direction.

Smaller detachments are operating on in the area of the Sudzha-Lgov road. 1/

It is unclear how large the Ukrainian area of control actually is, and what areas are so-called grey zones, where neither party has a solid control. The map is a conservative assessment - Ukrainians may control additional villages. OPSEC is still very tight. 2/

Some Ukrainian units were able to exploit the disorganized state of the Russian defences, and pushed further north towards Lgov. Most likely the Russians still don't have the situation under full control, and we may still see more areas fall to Ukrainians. 3/

Russians have been nervous about additional incursions, for example from Hlukhiv to Rylsk. If Ukraine wants to exploit the situation further and if it is ready to commit more forces, we should be seeing more attacks from new directions happening in the very near future. 4/

Ukraine is operating with it's strategic reserves, while the situation in the east is still very difficult. My personal opinion is that I'm still worried about the Kursk direction, as there are still negative scenarios that may unfold because of this. 5/

The Kursk operation attrits precious reserves and doesn't solve the current problems elsewhere. Ukraine has not captured very significant residential centers yet, and the Russians have been able to halt Ukraine in front of Koronevo. 6/

Ukraine can't continue too far north without widening the flanks. A narrow salient isn't ideal, if Ukraine wants to hold the land it has captured for a longer period of time. Time is also running against Ukrainians - Russians won't be disorganized forever. 7/

If reserves are spent in an operation where the outcome is, for example, taking only a couple of dozen villages and towns in the border area, it cannot be considered particularly successful in the big picture - just like the Russian operation in north Kharkiv direction. 8/

However, as I said, there are still multiple scenarios possible, also more positive ones, if Ukraine can go further towards Kursk. At least in the information space, Russians are suffering an embarrasing defeat the media is again focused on Ukrainian successes. 9/

Our team at @Black_BirdGroup continues to closely follow the situation with multiple daily updates. 10/10

Link to our interactive map: scribblemaps.com/maps/view/The-…