Maybe we can finally dispense with the ‘transparent battlefield’ fallacy. War’s enduring feature, as Clausewitz described, is that it is a human endeavour and that it is full of uncertainty, friction, emotion and surprise. 1/5 🧵
2/ The level of strategic, operational and tactical deception shown by the Ukrainians during the planning, assembling forces and ongoing execution of the #Kursk operation has been superb.
3/ This is not a technical achievement - it is a human one. People who have learned from their successes and failures since February 2022 have crafted an operational design that is being competently executed by motivated soldiers.
4/ The design is physical of course. But it also has a profound moral dimension - the operation has shocked the Russian military and citizenry. The Ukrainians are exploiting this shock to move quickly through Kursk. This shock will unveil other opportunities for Ukraine to strike.
5/ But the strategic shock will also need to be exploited. It will have an impact on the status of Putin at home and abroad (can’t defend his own country). And, I hope, this will reinvigorate Western publics & politicians to force a change in our strategy to one that embraces and resources defeating Russia In Ukraine. End.
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Now that we have had a couple of days to observe the new Ukrainian cross-border attack into Kursk, I wanted to offer a quick assessment of what we know, as well as Ukraine's potential objectives and the challenges it faces. 1/23 🧵( (Image: @DefenceU)
2/ Surprise is an important continuity in human competition and warfare. The aim is to shock an adversary and overwhelm them when they are their weakest or when they least expect it. That shock, and the accompanying break down in enemy cohesion & ability to effectively respond, can then be used to seize ground and destroy enemy formations.
3/ It appears that yet again, the Ukrainians have surprised Russia, and observers in the west, with their latest operation. Over the past 72 hours, we have watched as Ukraine has launched a significant cross-border assault into Russia’s Kursk region.
A good thread from @RALee85 on the new Ukrainian operation on the Kursk axis. Given defensive pressures elsewhere, particularly with Russia's advances towards Pokrovsk and Toretsk, the strategic rationale for this operation at this time is difficult to fathom. 1/5 🧵
2/ One potential driver is political. The government of #Ukraine want to shift momentum and the strategic narrative, and have directed such an operation.
3/ Another potential driver is operational. That is, to draw away Russian forces from the Donbas to defend on the Kursk axis. However, given Russian advantages in manpower, Russia can probably cover both with limited impact on its operations in eastern #Ukraine.
“The threats the United States faces are the most serious and most challenging the nation has encountered since 1945 and include the potential for near-term major war.” The report from U.S. National Defense Strategy Commission has been released. Some highlights. 1/11 🧵
2/ On China - “The Commission finds that, in many ways, China is outpacing the United States and has largely negated the U.S. military advantage in the Western Pacific through two decades of focused military investment. Without significant change by the United States, the balance of power will continue to shift in China’s favor. “
3/ Russia - “Russia will devote 29 percent of its federal budget this year on national defense as it continues to reconstitute its military and economy after its failed initial invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Russia possesses considerable strategic, space, and cyber capabilities and under Vladimir Putin seeks a return to its global leadership role of the Cold War.”
In the last 48 hours, #Ukraine conducted one of its longest-range strategic strikes yet. Today, an update on what is occurring with Ukraine’s multiple strike campaigns, their key functions and the challenges that Ukraine will face in strike operations against Russia for the remainder of 2024 and into 2025. 1/18 🧵🇺🇦
2/ The weekend strikes are claimed to have damaged a Russian Tu-22M3 long-range supersonic bomber at the Olenya airfield, south of Murmansk. This particular airfield lies about 1800 kilometres from Ukraine and is close to Russia’s border with northern Finland.
3/ The Ukrainians have also recently struck key targets in Crimea. This included the significant damage to Russia’s last railway ferry in Crimea. This vessel has been used to transport military equipment to Russian forces in the occupied peninsula and thence to forces in southern Ukraine.
In the past 24 hours we have seen again the brutality of the Putin regime, and the murderous band of barbarians called the Russian military. The deliberate attack by a Russian precision missile on the Okhmatdyt hospital, despite its horror, is part of a wider Russian campaign to terrorise the people of #Ukraine. 1/10 🧵🇺🇦
2/ This was not the action of a few bad apples. It is the outcome of a systemic, command-led campaign to terrorise and brutalise Ukrainians, just as the Russians did with Syrians and Chechens.
3/ Russian political and military leaders have nurtured a culture of indiscriminate killing in Ukraine and set the conditions for it to flourish. They bear full responsibility for the killings at Okhmatdyt hospital, Bucha and other atrocities across Ukraine in the past two and half years.
In the next 48 hours, NATO will hold its annual summit. This time it will be hosted by the U.S. in Washington DC. There will be a range of topics discussed, including the war in #Ukraine. But, China's role in supporting Russia may also be a subject of some discussion. 1/11 🧵
2/In June, the U.S. Permanent Representative to NATO described how “China has taken a side; China has opted to support Russia through the provision of these dual-use components; and that if it opted to stop doing that, we believe it would have a major impact on Russia’s ability to conduct the war on the ground inside Ukraine.”
3/ But how does China benefit from supporting Russia, and indeed, benefit from a continuation of the war? I think there are three key areas where it does so: strategic, economic and ideological.