Thread by @francisjfarrell

Weird timing for publishing to concide with Kursk, but in this op-ed, I wanted to talk straight about a realistic path to the end of the war, tackling the semi-taboo (in Ukraine) idea of negotiations and what really needs to be done for peace. A thread 1/

kyivindependent.com/the-difficult-…

My last op-ed from November ruffled some feathers: it was early days, but it had become clear to me that the paradigm of the war had shifted: from a grand attempt at Ukrainian military victory to a renewed fight for survival, more brutal than in 2022. 2/

kyivindependent.com/francis-farrel…

What followed was another five months of delayed U.S. aid, the fall of Avdiivka, and the exacerbation of Ukraine's manpower problems amid shortcomings in ammunition, fortifications, and of course, the internal mobilisation process. 3/

Complete Ukrainian victory is the only just outcome of this war. But now, with aid coming in but the manpower situation still worsening, in the current state of things, only radical power shifts in Ukraine, the West, and Russia could bring it back within reach. 4/

Being real about the prospects of victory in the short to mid term shouldn't mean the alternative is opening to a vague idea of "negotiations." But rejecting the concept of peace talks altogether leaves it in a grey zone of understanding that Russia can exploit. 5/

As different actors slowly come up with their own frameworks for peace, friends of Ukraine need to be very clear on the inside and out that there are two scenarios for entering negotiations: one that ensures the survival of independent Ukraine, and one that is akin to defeat. 6/

Many people, especially here in Ukraine, often talk about the likelihood of Russia violating a peace deal and invading again when it suits them as a reason to reject negotiations entirely. This, of course, is completely understandable. But there is a solution. 7/

What is needed to avoid a repeat invasion is the same thing needed to secure peace on favourable terms, and coincidentally, the same thing crucial to keeping the hope of full victory alive in the future.

The focus must be on winning the defensive war and doing so decisively. 8/

Real, sustained pressure needs to be put back on Moscow, not just the temporary discomfort that something like Kursk will likely bring (though I hope it's more that that). Material, financial, social pressure. Putin needs to understand that his path to victory is hopeless. 9/

For this, both the West and Kyiv need to refocus and get their act together, as Ukraine's manpower reserves are under strain and ultimately limited, so is time itself. Events in the Pokrovsk sector are an early warning sign of what future battlefield collapse might look like. 10/

The broad steps that I think the West and Ukraine have to take are in the article. But first and foremost, both sides need to be on the same page about a realistic plan, and how we go forward to peace must always be grounded in a solid connection to the battlefield reality. end.