In recent days, we see Russian forces bearing down on more large pockets of southern Donetsk Oblast, from Selydove to Kurakhove and Vuhledar.

As Zelensky publicly pushes towards an endgame, what happens here is as crucial as what happens in Washington this week. 🧵 1/

Over summer, the toughest battles has been the defence of the Pokrovsk axis, where, unlike that of Bakhmut or Avdiivka, the fight has been characterised by a loss of control.

I wrote about how we got there here, for @KyivIndependent: 2/

kyivindependent.com/russias-pokrov…

Weird timing for publishing to concide with Kursk, but in this op-ed, I wanted to talk straight about a realistic path to the end of the war, tackling the semi-taboo (in Ukraine) idea of negotiations and what really needs to be done for peace. A thread 1/

kyivindependent.com/the-difficult-… My last op-ed from November ruffled some feathers: it was early days, but it had become clear to me that the paradigm of the war had shifted: from a grand attempt at Ukrainian military victory to a renewed fight for survival, more brutal than in 2022. 2/

kyivindependent.com/francis-farrel…

Wrote about the Kursk Oblast offensive as of last night for @KyivIndependent. A few thoughts from myself, two days in: watching this operation, it's important to separate the emotional effects from the kinetic. 1/

kyivindependent.com/ukraine-brings… Yes, the incursion's results are looking pretty spectacular so far (by design given the serious forces committed), and carry with them symbolic weight: bringing the war to Russian soil, exposing Putin's weakness, boosting morale etc. etc. 2/

Wrote about the storm building around Ukraine's mobilisation policy for @KyivIndependent:

This issue is both a uniquely painful catalyst of societal tension in a country at war, but also a very stark condensation of all of Ukraine's internal woes. 1/

kyivindependent.com/move-to-expand… There are so many layers to this: but to boil it down to its very simplest essence: this is about a military fighting a brutal war of attrition needing more men to keep up the fight and a civilian male population not keen to go at this point in the war. 2/

Apart from Western aid deliveries, Ukraine's ability to defend effectively is the most important factor for how the war will play out in 2024. For that they must dig.

I wrote about Ukraine's need to fortify for @KyivIndependent: Some thoughts here: 1/

kyivindependent.com/ukraine-finall… As much as the leadership doesn't want to publicly give up on the idea of pressing forward, Ukraine has been forced into a strategic defensive stance, after the summer/autumn counteroffensive failed to make gains that would strategically change the game. Why did it fail? 2/

The last month has been a bit of a depressing one for Ukraine, especially for those who are here, invested, and paying attention rather than cheering on their sports team from afar.

I want to inject some clarity into this key point in the war. Thread:

kyivindependent.com/francis-farrel… Zelensky's and Zaluzhny's respective pieces in Western magazines triggered the discussion and the bad vibes about the future, but they all described things we already knew. This wave of gloom was brought not by the articles, but by two key events. 1/

Reading all the talk about the Arakhamiia interview, the possibility of peace in April 2022, and the mischievous warmonger Boris, I feel like I'm taking crazy pills.

A reminder: the most important factor in Russia/Ukraine peace talks is territorial control and its status. 1/ Let's refresh: This is what the war looked like in April 2022. Russia's war of conquest had failed around Kyiv, but had achieved an equally stunning victory in the south.

Russian forces had taken Kherson and a lot of land west of the Dnipro, and linked Crimea to Donbas. 2/

Went from Kyiv to just outside Klishchiivka for this deep dive into the current state of the drone war for @KyivIndependent.

Judging the drone war is very much like the war as a whole- balancing a confusing mess of qualitative and quantitative data. 🧵:

kyivindependent.com/head-first-int… Just like with the war as a whole, with drones you see a pattern over time: Ukraine with the edge over Russia (especially in the use of civilian DJIs for frontline recon) for the first months of of full-scale thanks to initiative, innovation, and flexibility on the battlefield. 2