Thread by @LovelyLad_

The Third day of the Kursk Incursion According to open sources
Tactical Analysis
Thread🧵

During such operations every minute matters and speed is of the essence. Currently Ukraine is in a race against time trying to secure their operational goals before a Russian response is possible.

During the last thread I got shuttle criticism about the fact that I don't properly cover the Russian forces, which is valid but tracking ragtag groupings formed the same day combined with troops from multiple units is not the easiest thing to do.
But I'll try to anyways.

Early in the morning 2 dismounted RVC Companies would begin their movement, their objective would be to move into 2 villages on the southern outskirts of Sudzha in a general attempt to isolate the remaining Russian garrison.

The companies would be supported by the 88th occupying the nearby heights.
Some elements would move into the town's center which was a grey zone throughout the night after the Russian withdrawal.

Meanwhile the 22nd Brigade's deployed battalion would start assembling on the railway north of Sudzha to attempt an outflanking maneuver.

On day 3 reinforcements would also show up in the form of a new Airmobile BTG consisting mainly of elements of the 80th Air assault brigade but it would also have Marders of the 82nd in the unit.
It would be equipped with Marders, MT-LBu's, BTR80s, HMMWVs and some other stuff.

The first thing this BTG would do is to relieve the 2 companies of the 82nd which would be redirected west and then assault the Russian garrison at Malaya Loknya, which would be destroyed pretty quickly.

Then after that a Grouping of the 80th with 2 Mechanized Platoons, 6 tanks and attached reconnaissance and DRG elements would launch a thrust to the north, their objective remains unclear to me, we'll cover the thrust in a couple slides.

In the west TDF companies supported by the Georgian Legion would launch a general push in the outskirts of Kerenevo while a company of the 82nd and one from the 54th would move into the eastern part of Kerenevo.
The 2 relieved companies of the 82nd would secure the northern flank

Kerenevo was held by roughly a battalion of the VKS regiment and it is a hard chokepoint to secure with the small amounts of troops Ukraine has pushed into it.
Despite that it is a necessary objective for the operation.

Despite everything throughout the day heavy fighting would take place in the Town's entrance and outskirts but by the end of the day the outskirts would be under Ukrainian control and a foothold inside the towns entrance would be secured
The bridges though remain under Ru Control

After assembling the 22nd Brigade would launch it's maneuver in the afternoon, their objective would be to cut off the last service route the 488th Motor Rifle Regiment and setup on the heights from where they would attack by fire into the town.

The last organized defense of the Russian 488th Regiment was encircled, all exit routes were under Ukrainian fire control and their defense was crumbling to the south as they were being eaten away by the Ukrainian infantry.

Fighting would continue throughout the day but by the night all organized resistance would be stopped and only small pockets of resistance would remain by the next day.
This would spell the death of the Russian 488th Regiment.

Now let's get back to the raiding groups of the 80th Air Assault Brigade.
There were 2 Main Raiding groups the eastern and the western, the stronger one was in the west and it also started moving a couple hours earlier than the eastern one.

The Western Column would ride up until 9AM when they would run into a grouping of Russian troops, under the confusion of the accidental ambush parts of the column would engage different enemy positions.
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The fighting would last up until the afternoon after that the Ukrainian column would regroup and access the situation.

After that The Ukrainian column would try to break through again around 5PM but realizing that their ammunition was dwindling and that the Russians were getting reinforced, they would stop, camp out and wait for a resupply.

The information on the eastern column is a bit more foggy but our theory is the following:
A more light Ukrainian column during the afternoon hours would move from Malaya Loknya onto the R200 route in an attempt to secure Bolshoe Soldatskoe and move further north

The Russian force at Bolshoe Soldatskoe likely consisted of mainly Russian Service support troops and other remnants from the 488th and other units.
Despite the attempt the small Ukrainian grouping failed to quickly secure the town and DRGs would bypass it.

The Ukrainian column in the east would be repelled and forced to withdraw as serious Russian reinforcements are arriving from Belgorod currently they are assembling at Bolshoe Soldatskoe and other towns and a serious situation would present the Ukrainian on Day 4

Thank you for reading a lot of work goes into these threads and I'm really happy that people are enjoying them