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Trent Telenko Profile picture
@TrentTelenko
Aug 9, 2024 • 15 tweets • 7 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
The Russian Army railway logistics are now in worse shape than when Wagner's revolt over ran Rostov on Don's railway marshaling yard.

Per @Schizointel

>>Ukraine now has physical access and control over the
>>Lgov-Belgorod line
>>Lgov-Vorozbha line

Summer 1940 redux🧵
1/
The two key railway marshalling yards for the Russian Army in occupied Ukraine are in Belgorod and Rostov on Don.

And Belgorod railway marshalling yard just got cut off from the north.

Rerouting train traffic like this hasn't happened in Russia since 1941.

2/
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This Reddit map of AFU advances indicates the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant (NPP), upper right, may soon be isolated from the Russian power grid to points south.

Given the Rostov on Don NPP lost one of two reactors to a maintenance casualty.

3/
 reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVi…
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The stability of the Russian power grid is going to be affected with that much baseline nuclear power going off line.

Given 70% of Russian railway engines are electrically powered. This is a huge honking deal...

...a loss of RuAF strategic mobility kind of deal.

4/ Image
And the situation is it is getting worse as Russian civilians are bugging out en mass as refugees from Kursk Oblast.

RuAF doesn't have many fuel tanker trucks because the Russian Army always projects power from railheads.

5/
This is why there was the 40 mile convoy to Kyiv that ran out of fuel in Feb 2022.

Like Texas evacuating Houston in 2005 with Hurricane Rita, Russian civilians are creating a fuel desert where the RuAF needs to go.

6/
 npr.org/sections/thetw…
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Given the number of confirmed AFU brigades involved in the Kursk operation, and the complete lack of a Russian strategic ground forces reserve anywhere.

It is looking far more like @secretsqrl123 idea strategic envelopment of Belgorod than mine of a strategic raid.

7/
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The much reported AFU woes in the Donbas were the result of mostly 2nd line units being put into the front lines behind a "Ghost Army" strategic deception while the elite units were being quietly prepared for the Kursk/Belgorod axis envelopment.

8/ en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghost_Army
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A Ukrainian drone swarm of OWA Drone/propeller cruise missiles have destroyed the VKS munitions stocks at Lipetsk airfield.

This takes the VKS off the table as a strong operational reserve on the Kursk/Belgorod axis.



9/



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Meanwhile, AFU ground forces are making amphibious raid demonstrations at the Kinburn Spit to try and freeze RuAF ground units in Kherson from redeployment.

10/
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RuAF desperation on the Kursk/Belgorod axis is such they are sending the following:

- MT-LB w/a 9K55 Grad-1 multiple rocket launcher
- MT-LB w/a twin 2M-3 25 mm naval gun,
- MT-LB w/a ZU-23-2 gun, & an
- MT-LB w/a MT-12 Rapira 100 mm AT-gun.
11/
 mil.in.ua/en/news/mt-lb-…

Image
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This MT-LB "Franken-Grad" just screams of a deep attrition of RuAF trucks available to mount 122mm rocket launchers on them.

An AFU thrust into Belgorod would allow it a pivot to the East to envelop the RuAF incursion into Kharkiv.

12/
The Kursk incursion forces the RuAF to spread their inadequate local reserves and covers the Western flank of an AFU thrust into Belgorod.

Pocketing 100K RuAF troops at Belgorod, with 14 brigades behind RuAF's strategic northern right flank, with no strategic reserve
13/
...looks like N. France in the summer of 1940.

I'm not saying Belgorod will be successfully enveloped by AFU, or that Russia will fall 6 weeks afterwards if it is.

I will say General Guderian is smiling.

14/14 End Image
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More from @TrentTelenko

Trent Telenko Profile picture
Apr 18
There is an tragi-comic story behind this Russian foreign ministry claim.

The Russian use the term "direct participation" because of a lie by Chancellor Scholz a year ago when he claimed the computer system used to program the Taurus missiles...
1/
...was a huge supercomputer in Germany that could not be replicated for Ukraine.

But German computer scientists found an article that described the 20 year old computer system used by Taurus.

2/ Image
BLUF: Today that Taurus mission planning software could be operated on a MacBookPro.

But the lie was never retracted by Scholz and the Russians still use it for propaganda.

So Russians can not exploit Scholz's lie to scare Germans, because they know it's a lie.🤡

3/3 Image
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Read 4 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Apr 17
The CO of the top scoring Buk [Nato designation SA-11 Gadfly] battery in the PSU did an interview ~2 years ago (early 2023).

He said they used their own Mavic drones to check that their camouflage and

Zoltan Dani & A2/AD doctrine🧵
1/ Image
...that their battery concealment was good enough to fool Russian drones.

So, the PSU does a drone quality assurance check on its camo during the "hide" phase of the hide-shoot-scoot cycle, AKA you have to survive in order to have the opportunity to shoot enough to become the highest scoring SAM battery.


2/
In contrast, the Russian VKS parks their missile TELARs in the middle of a field to get maximum obstacle clearance and range. Then they are shocked when hit by deep strike assault drone or GMLRS rocket.


3/
Read 18 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Apr 16
In 2005, the Strategypage -dot- com web site had the following on the downing of an F-117 over Serbia.

These tactic are the heart of Ukrainian IADS doctrine.
---
How to Take Down an F-117

November 21, 2005: The Serbian battery commander, whose missiles downed an American F-16, and, most impressively, an F-117, in 1999, has retired, as a colonel, and revealed many of the techniques he used to achieve all this. Colonel Dani Zoltan, in 1999, commanded the 3rd battery of the 250th Missile Brigade. He had search and control radars, as well as a TV tracking unit.

1/Image
The battery had four quad launchers for the 21 foot long, 880 pound SA-3 missiles. The SA-3 entered service in 1961 and, while it had undergone some upgrades, was considered a minor threat to NATO aircraft. Zoltan was an example of how an imaginative and energetic leader can make a big difference. While Zoltan’s peers and superiors were pretty demoralized with the electronic countermeasures NATO (especially American) aircraft used to support their bombing missions, he believed he could still turn his ancient missiles into lethal weapons

2/Image
The list of measures he took, and the results he got, should be warning to any who believe that superior technology alone will provide a decisive edge in combat. People still make a big difference. In addition to shooting down two aircraft, Zoltan’s battery caused dozens of others to abort their bombing missions to escape his unexpectedly accurate missiles. This is how he did it.

3/Image
Read 15 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Apr 15
Lots of US military officers like to believe Ukraine is identical in most ways to Saddam's Iraq & some are foolish enough to say so publicly.

It'd just not true in terms of Ukrainian IADS leadership, equipment, organization, training and doctrine.

1/
The #2 of PSU in Feb 2022 had been imbedded in Serbian air defense in 1999 during Operation Allied Force.

Where Col Zoltan Dani SA-3 Goa unit not only defeated USAF SEAD doctrine from 24 Mar to 10 June 1999 with good training & tactics.

Zoltan also bagged an F-117.

2/ Image
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Ukraine spent 23 years duplicating Zoltani's emissions control and mobility doctrine for it's IADS.

Additionally in 2014-2015, the PSU IADS operated under the Russian long range MLRS/TBM park directed by UAV's that were cued by EW-Sigint for a year.

Minimally the Ukrainians
3/
Read 11 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Apr 14
The problem for this USN-Taiwan "hellscape strategy" is it's obsolete given that the Chinese have access to Russia's newest generation of FPV interceptor drones to counter it, via using China's "5 times bigger than the rest of the world combined" drone industry & sea militia.

1/ Image
US Flag ranks and their senior staffs' refuse to acknowledge the disintermediation of drones mil-tech.

All you need is a game controller/radio or a smartphone controller & a waiter tray stand.

Then you are launching a FPV drone with 70% the lethality of a Javelin ATGM
2/ Image
The Drone paradigm shift for Flag rank ground officers is like Horse Cavalry from 1913 to the WW1 1918 battlefield - cold.

For Flag Rank naval officers, it is like going from the 1922 battleship line to 1950's jet carrier battle group.

USN senior leaders have more problems.
3/
Read 6 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Apr 13
One of the 'benefits' of being a 33 year 3 month vet of the US military procurement enterprise is you are around when the bodies are buried, directly or through people you know.

Such was the case with US Army anti-drone procurement.

Portrait of US Army procurement failure🧵
1/
This is an email correspondent of mine talking about US Army anti-drone kit testing, prior to 2010, about a competition between two anti-drone contractors --

"The toughest part of detecting drones is figuring out if they're drones or birds.
2/
That was actually the big 'step' they managed.

But, no, the directed pulse did not interfere with their radar. And the test they did they took down seven drones in less than seven seconds at range.
3/ Image
Read 18 tweets

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