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Trent Telenko Profile picture
@TrentTelenko
Aug 9, 2024 • 15 tweets • 7 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
The Russian Army railway logistics are now in worse shape than when Wagner's revolt over ran Rostov on Don's railway marshaling yard.

Per @Schizointel

>>Ukraine now has physical access and control over the
>>Lgov-Belgorod line
>>Lgov-Vorozbha line

Summer 1940 redux🧵
1/
The two key railway marshalling yards for the Russian Army in occupied Ukraine are in Belgorod and Rostov on Don.

And Belgorod railway marshalling yard just got cut off from the north.

Rerouting train traffic like this hasn't happened in Russia since 1941.

2/
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This Reddit map of AFU advances indicates the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant (NPP), upper right, may soon be isolated from the Russian power grid to points south.

Given the Rostov on Don NPP lost one of two reactors to a maintenance casualty.

3/
 reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVi…
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The stability of the Russian power grid is going to be affected with that much baseline nuclear power going off line.

Given 70% of Russian railway engines are electrically powered. This is a huge honking deal...

...a loss of RuAF strategic mobility kind of deal.

4/ Image
And the situation is it is getting worse as Russian civilians are bugging out en mass as refugees from Kursk Oblast.

RuAF doesn't have many fuel tanker trucks because the Russian Army always projects power from railheads.

5/
This is why there was the 40 mile convoy to Kyiv that ran out of fuel in Feb 2022.

Like Texas evacuating Houston in 2005 with Hurricane Rita, Russian civilians are creating a fuel desert where the RuAF needs to go.

6/
 npr.org/sections/thetw…
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Given the number of confirmed AFU brigades involved in the Kursk operation, and the complete lack of a Russian strategic ground forces reserve anywhere.

It is looking far more like @secretsqrl123 idea strategic envelopment of Belgorod than mine of a strategic raid.

7/
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The much reported AFU woes in the Donbas were the result of mostly 2nd line units being put into the front lines behind a "Ghost Army" strategic deception while the elite units were being quietly prepared for the Kursk/Belgorod axis envelopment.

8/ en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghost_Army
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A Ukrainian drone swarm of OWA Drone/propeller cruise missiles have destroyed the VKS munitions stocks at Lipetsk airfield.

This takes the VKS off the table as a strong operational reserve on the Kursk/Belgorod axis.



9/



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Meanwhile, AFU ground forces are making amphibious raid demonstrations at the Kinburn Spit to try and freeze RuAF ground units in Kherson from redeployment.

10/
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RuAF desperation on the Kursk/Belgorod axis is such they are sending the following:

- MT-LB w/a 9K55 Grad-1 multiple rocket launcher
- MT-LB w/a twin 2M-3 25 mm naval gun,
- MT-LB w/a ZU-23-2 gun, & an
- MT-LB w/a MT-12 Rapira 100 mm AT-gun.
11/
 mil.in.ua/en/news/mt-lb-…

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This MT-LB "Franken-Grad" just screams of a deep attrition of RuAF trucks available to mount 122mm rocket launchers on them.

An AFU thrust into Belgorod would allow it a pivot to the East to envelop the RuAF incursion into Kharkiv.

12/
The Kursk incursion forces the RuAF to spread their inadequate local reserves and covers the Western flank of an AFU thrust into Belgorod.

Pocketing 100K RuAF troops at Belgorod, with 14 brigades behind RuAF's strategic northern right flank, with no strategic reserve
13/
...looks like N. France in the summer of 1940.

I'm not saying Belgorod will be successfully enveloped by AFU, or that Russia will fall 6 weeks afterwards if it is.

I will say General Guderian is smiling.

14/14 End Image
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More from @TrentTelenko

Trent Telenko Profile picture
Apr 27
The effectiveness of drones is directly affected by the electronic warfare competence of the drone users.

The fact that the US Army defenestrated every EW practitioner in the 2000's and has compete "EW virgins" as flag rank leadership means it will fail with mass casualties in its first major drone war combat.
1/3
A US Army serious about drone warfare would:

- Rebuild the full EW enterprise with organic division-level EW battalions and real exercises.

- Embed EW jamming into all combat branches (not MI-only).

- Shift to gun/autocannon dominant combined-arms counter-drone doctrine.

2/3
- Require FAA drone pilot + Ham radio licenses for flag ranks to build drone domain literacy.

None of these four reforms will happen until after US Army soldiers are deep in both defeat and buckets of blood.

3/3
Read 4 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Apr 26
It is extremely unlikely that this shooter acted alone given the following:

1. Reports are the guns were cached disassembled in a black bag, in a room outside the secured Secret Service perimeter.

2. The room the guns were cached in didn't have television surveillance.

🧵
1/
3. The shooter arrived at the hotel the day before the event.😯

4. TSA rules require firearms to be transported in checked baggage, unloaded, and locked in a hard-sided container, declared to the airline at check-in.

2/
5. Local DC law requires firearms in vehicles to be inaccessible from the passenger compartment and unloaded.

6. Washington DC is not a "safe passage" jurisdiction for non-residents without a license. The shooter lacked this license.

3/
Read 10 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Apr 14
USN flag ranks & their staffers have been fighting the idea of distant economic blockade of China tooth an nail as a response to China invading Taiwan for 30 years.

They really don't want a recent precedent of a successful blockade...

1/3
...to prevent their Carrier fleet Pickett's charge into the South China Sea.

Specifically distant blockade as a strategy against China makes having/regaining 100 Cold War era

2/3 Image
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...frigates and destroyer tenders supporting them on distant blockade stations outside the 2nd Island chain, "budget relevant" for a military strategy of conducting three years of blockade enforcement.

3/3 Image
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Read 4 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Apr 14
The high death rate of Russian troops due to a lack of casualty evacuation was highly visible in March-September 2022.

I've documented this consistently, repeatedly and at great technical depth.

Russia Strong "slopaganda" has buried it over and over.

1/
I was calling out two dead for every three Russian wounded in Sept 2022 as the more realistic Russian casualty ratio in Ukraine because it was taking more than 24 hours to get to the equivalent of a battalion aid station.

2/3
I asked @grok to summarize my receipts on Russian casualty ratios since February 2022, which are clipped below:

3/3 Image
Read 4 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Apr 1
This fact:

"Oil revenue collapsed to roughly 5% of the national budget, down from 32% the prior year. Taxes increased over 60%. Food prices climbed at least 50%. ATMs across major cities are running out of cash."

Underlines a major point of mine. 🧵

1/
Since Clausewitz, the West recognized "war as an extension of politics."

The corollary of that is "politics is an extension of money."

Iran doesn't have any money, thanks to hyper-inflation and now an 84% reduction in oil revenue.

2/ Image
The failed January 2026 Iranian uprising kicked off because hyperinflation caused massive food insecurity that required the mass murder of 30,000 (+) Iranian protestors to suppress.

The 12-day war and the current one have made Iranian hyper-inflation far worse.

3/
Read 6 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Mar 31
Not for US aircraft. ⬇⬇️

Hardened aircraft shelters are against the secular budget religion of US flying service flag ranks.

Not that other Western air forces are any better.

1/
The Chief of Air Staff RAAF 12 months ago gave a lecture trashing HAS as a bad idea and how "dispersal is better."

Dispersal didn't help USAF E-3G's in Saudi Arabia because they had nowhere to disperse too.

Places like Italy are politically off limits.
2/ Image
The RAAF CoS appeared to believe that every HAS was like the cheapest Iraqi HAS that we could crack with a single BLU-109/B, not the serious HAS needing multiple BLU-109/B down the same hole.

All of China's HAS built since 1991 are of the 2nd variety or are 'super-hardened' deep tunnels.

3/3Image
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Read 4 tweets

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