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JWeiland Profile picture
@JPWeiland
Aug 9, 2024 • 5 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
August 9th update:

Estimated daily infections reach 1 million. Remarkable infection rates for a summer surge. Only BA.2->BA.5 was higher in the 2022 summer.

🔸1,000,000 new infections/day
🔸1 in every 33 people currently infected
🔸74% higher than 12 month avg. Image
Prevalence by region:

Every region increasing in wastewater levels. Both the South and West are at roughly 12 month highs.

Midwest: 1 in 42 ⬆️
South: 1 in 25 ⬆️
Northest: 1 in 58 ⬆️
West: 1 in 22 ⬆️ Image
Make no mistake- though waning is a very important driver of waves, variant evolution plays a large role in the differences between years.

Last summer was "just" F456L mutation on XBBs.

This year we had FLiRT->KP.3->KP.3.1.1 back to back, each quickly overtaking the last. Image
This was part of the concern with the Pirola variant tree: a huge evolutionary jump on the spike may allow for a lot more optimization in the months after arrival. We saw the same thing with Omicron: many meaningful mutations in the first 9 months after it arrived.
@cml199002 Also note: this data is for the US, not Alberta. I don't know what the current stats are for Alberta.

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More from @JPWeiland

JWeiland Profile picture
Jan 20
How accurate are my infection estimates? The calibration is based on 2020-early2022 historical WW&case data, so we have no easy way to validate today's calibration in the US.

But we do have *measured* UK prevalence in December 2023 that arrives very close to my US estimates. Image
This is unfortunately about as good of validation as we can have since we don't measure prevalence directly in the US. UK and US are obviously not the same entity, but they do tend to spike together in December each year. Their data was not used to feed my calibration, so it..
..is reassuring that they arrived at very similar numbers on their actual prevalence measurements.

It would be great if the US did a similar measured prevalence study of their own, but we don't have anything like that at the moment.
Read 4 tweets
JWeiland Profile picture
Dec 27, 2024
The sequence from the 2nd severe H5N1 case in North America (Louisiana) has been released, and again, ⚠️has mutations that favor a2,6. Is it simply a coincidence that both severe cases have 2,6 favoring mutations? Or is this an indication of severity with 2,6?
I don't like this. Image
Link to the CDC update: cdc.gov/bird-flu/spotl…
@HelenBranswell wrote about this development further in STAT
Read 4 tweets
JWeiland Profile picture
Dec 21, 2024
PSA (again): *Never* use the last 3 or 4 days of WWscan averages. They're always wrong, and I keep seeing this mistake being made. Half the time it's a straight line up or down. The midwest showed a vertical spike a couple days ago then it got reduced by 40% a day later. Image
Image
@WastewaterSCAN is a fantastic resource, but it has an averaging issue in the latest few data points, as they dont have samples from all of their sites yet, so it's not comparing apples to apples. They should consider averaging to tmax-4 days in their algorithm.
By the way here is what the NE looks like with t-5 days Image
Read 4 tweets
JWeiland Profile picture
Dec 16, 2024
Dec 16th update:

Increasing numbers this week as the holiday season kicks in. I believe the prior week was undersampled and this week was oversampled. ED data shows a slower rise over 2 wks (next post)

🔸286,000 new infections/day
🔸1 in every 112 people currently infected Image
Emergency department data is currently 5 more days up to date than WW, and the trend looks quite different. Slow, steady increases. The reality may lie somewhere between them. I didn't post a WW update last week because I thought the decrease was a mirage. Image
Either way, we are still over 3x lower on case levels than the prior two years at this time. But we are getting back to moderate levels of spread- just not the large surge we are used to at this time.

I have kept my calibration consistent.
Read 4 tweets
JWeiland Profile picture
Dec 10, 2024
Updated December-Early January Forecast:

Given recent data, the expected peak has decreased even further, and the range has shrunk.

This is now guaranteed to be a record low for Holiday infection rates, hospitalization, and deaths. Image
A comparison of Holiday surge estimates from 2020 to 2024 shows just how unusual this prediction is. Image
I've explained the reasons for this anomaly over the past month. After the appearance of highly divergent Pirola, we had a ton of new escape mutations that led to a summer wave, infecting most of the susceptable populations. Evolution shut off suddenly after, with only...
Read 4 tweets
JWeiland Profile picture
Nov 16, 2024
Ok, this is actually concerning. The sequence of the hospitalized teen with H5N1 has been released. Both of these mutation sites are known to impact α2,6 binding that is needed for human to human transmissibility.

Need top experts on H5N1 to immediately to look into this.
⚠️The right mutations at these sites can, on paper, significantly increase h-h transmission. That's why there needs to be immediate focus on this sample. It's somewhat unclear if the mutations occurred in this patient or prior to their infection.
It is also concerning that this is the first severe case we've had in North America out of many now. Is it a coincidence that these potentially h-h supporting mutations are linked to the most severe outcome?
Read 5 tweets

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