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JWeiland Profile picture
@JPWeiland
Aug 9 • 5 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
August 9th update:

Estimated daily infections reach 1 million. Remarkable infection rates for a summer surge. Only BA.2->BA.5 was higher in the 2022 summer.

🔸1,000,000 new infections/day
🔸1 in every 33 people currently infected
🔸74% higher than 12 month avg. Image
Prevalence by region:

Every region increasing in wastewater levels. Both the South and West are at roughly 12 month highs.

Midwest: 1 in 42 ⬆️
South: 1 in 25 ⬆️
Northest: 1 in 58 ⬆️
West: 1 in 22 ⬆️ Image
Make no mistake- though waning is a very important driver of waves, variant evolution plays a large role in the differences between years.

Last summer was "just" F456L mutation on XBBs.

This year we had FLiRT->KP.3->KP.3.1.1 back to back, each quickly overtaking the last. Image
This was part of the concern with the Pirola variant tree: a huge evolutionary jump on the spike may allow for a lot more optimization in the months after arrival. We saw the same thing with Omicron: many meaningful mutations in the first 9 months after it arrived.
@cml199002 Also note: this data is for the US, not Alberta. I don't know what the current stats are for Alberta.

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More from @JPWeiland

JWeiland Profile picture
Oct 19
FYI:
All of the news stories of the sudden jump in severity of XEC comes from a dentist in the UK (Dr. Snieguole Geige) who most likely does not even know that it's only been 1/6 infections over the past month.

It's nearly impossible to judge any severity change this early. Image
Image
This is not a knock for dentist speaking about covid. This is not my day job either. Sci/docs have made important contributions studying this virus even though it's outside their field. The issue:
🔸️Big claim
🔸️No data in hand
🔸️No evidence this Dr studies covid
Take for example @LongDesertTrain . A high school physics teacher who used his skill sets to become one of the top mutational experts in the world. He has demonstrated for years a high level of expertise and measured analysis on Covid unmc.edu/healthsecurity…
Read 4 tweets
JWeiland Profile picture
Sep 30
Outlook for Fall and Winter:

This is not an official forecast, rather a general idea of how I anticipate fall and winter Covid trends to look at the moment, with XEC being the main growing variant.
⚠️A strong new variant would change this relatively positive outlook. Image
The winter wave would be lead by the Northeast followed by the Midwest in terms of prevalence.

Note: I've been sitting on this outlook for 3 weeks, but waited to post it until we could see if XEC had stronger competition. That hasn't happened yet.
If this outlook comes to pass, it would result in the lowest winter surge in infections since 2020 and the lowest winter hospitalizations and deaths since the start of the pandemic. Fingers crossed.
Read 4 tweets
JWeiland Profile picture
Jul 19
July 19th update:

Another substantial increase this week (+26%). Wastewater signal now higher than last summer's peak, and over a month earlier.

🔸780,000 new infections/day
🔸1 in every 43 people currently infected
🔸45% higher than 12 month avg. Image
Ratio of people currently infected by region:

Midwest: 1 in 59 ⬆️
South: 1 in 34 ⬆️
Northest: 1 in 73 ⬆️
West: 1 in 25 ⬆️ Image
I expect a peak in the next couple of weeks nationally. Regionally, I think the West at South are closer to peak than the Northeast and Midwest.
Read 4 tweets
JWeiland Profile picture
Jul 5
Largest spike AA evolutionary jumps from 2020-2024, plotted:

BA.1 Omiron's top spot was followed closely by JN.1 Pirola, and both stand well above the rest over the past 4 years. Image
Viewed from a different lens of total AA spike divergence from the current lineages, JN.1 takes the top spot. This is branch to branch distance. Also note BA.2 divergence from BA.1. Image
Divergence is not necessarily a direct predictor of impact to caseloads. A lot depends on the diversity of population antibody protection when the evolution occurs. BA.1 easily holds that title because of the lack of antibody diversity at arrival.
Read 4 tweets
JWeiland Profile picture
May 16
The cost of preventing a pandemic is far lower than the cost of dealing with a pandemic. The current response to H5N1 in bovine needs to be dramatically increased.
1) Federal funds for compensation of lost profits on H5N1 farms (increases cooperation)
2) Abundant sequencing of.. Image
H5N1 positive cows and mammals on or near outbreak farms
3) Ramp up testing of farms and farm animals
4) Detailed sequencing metadata: date, location, etc.
5) Guarantee privacy on any humans with symptoms, test, trace, isolate, seq any positives
6) Guarantee immunity for...
...migrant workers on milk farms to encourage cooporation
7) If no temporary ban, require testing on all raw milk lots
8) Improved safe cattle transfer. Require testing of mixed milk lot from farm and cow before transfer
9) Survalence testing of other cattle
Read 4 tweets
JWeiland Profile picture
May 8
What is "FLiRT"?

FLiRT is the clever nickname for two mutations on the spike protein of the highly mutated variant "Pirola", that accounts for >99% of all Covid right now.
F->L at position 456 and R->T at 346.
Both escape mutations were present last year, but never on Pirola. Image
The two mutations are like makeup and lipstick to disguise the virus a bit more to sneak past some of your antibodies from prior infection and vaccination. And she wears it well.
And what is "Pirola"? That's the name I coined for this highly mutated variant. This level of sudden mutation has only happened twice; Omicron, and Pirola. Pirola had even more new mutations than Omicron did when it evolved. A big jump like that definitely deserves a name. Image
Read 4 tweets

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