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JWeiland Profile picture
@JPWeiland
Aug 9, 2024 • 5 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
August 9th update:

Estimated daily infections reach 1 million. Remarkable infection rates for a summer surge. Only BA.2->BA.5 was higher in the 2022 summer.

🔸1,000,000 new infections/day
🔸1 in every 33 people currently infected
🔸74% higher than 12 month avg. Image
Prevalence by region:

Every region increasing in wastewater levels. Both the South and West are at roughly 12 month highs.

Midwest: 1 in 42 ⬆️
South: 1 in 25 ⬆️
Northest: 1 in 58 ⬆️
West: 1 in 22 ⬆️ Image
Make no mistake- though waning is a very important driver of waves, variant evolution plays a large role in the differences between years.

Last summer was "just" F456L mutation on XBBs.

This year we had FLiRT->KP.3->KP.3.1.1 back to back, each quickly overtaking the last. Image
This was part of the concern with the Pirola variant tree: a huge evolutionary jump on the spike may allow for a lot more optimization in the months after arrival. We saw the same thing with Omicron: many meaningful mutations in the first 9 months after it arrived.
@cml199002 Also note: this data is for the US, not Alberta. I don't know what the current stats are for Alberta.

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More from @JPWeiland

JWeiland Profile picture
Aug 30
It took them over 2 months to fix this, but the CDC finally updated their Nowcast variant proportions and corrected their mistakes.

As I mentioned about a dozen times, XFG >> NB.1.8.1. Image
Not keeping score on Weiland vs CDC for variants and forecasting, but if I were, it'd be "A lot to a little".

😄
Here's what I think was the CDC's largest forecasting blunder. How does one miss the 2021 massive Omicron wave only days in advance?

3 weeks prior to their forecast I was already forecasting a tsunami.

Image
Read 4 tweets
JWeiland Profile picture
Aug 28
🧵 My favorite new scientific tool to observe the universe does what no other telescope can. It *LISTENS TO THE SOUNDS OF THE UNIVERSE*

LIGO, (Laser Interferometer Gravitational Wave Observatory) are 8km long L shaped detectors that measures mirror length to 1/10,000 of a proton Image
All other telescopes observe the EM spectrum (different wavelengths of light, from gamma ray to radio waves.) This is different, as if detects the rumbles of space time when big collisions happen. Neutron stars on collision course disturb space time to such an extent that it..
It sends "sound" waves all the way through the universe, not using air as the medium, but the fabric of space time at the speed of light. When it arrives at earth, LIGO measures the disturbance. Between the 3 (2 in the US and 1 in Italy) it can pinpoint where the sound came from Image
Read 9 tweets
JWeiland Profile picture
Aug 2
I still see frequent posts on here about how "easy" it would be to send covid to extinction via just everyone wearing masks and/or temporary lockdowns. It's poorly thought out logic, borderlining on fantasy. I'll explain why below:0/4🧵
1) Mask mandates and restaurant/bar lockdown across the world. About 5% of the population would get behind that, and only maybe 60% were behind it when it was killing 120-200x more people per week than today.
2) Impoverished countries:. You're going to force remote villages in west and central Africa, SE asia to abide by the new decree? Create travel bans from there? Good luck on all of that (including racial specific bans?!)
Read 5 tweets
JWeiland Profile picture
May 19
XFG* looks to me like the likely summer wave generator. From modeling NY growth:

🔸️~65% wkly advantage
🔸️Fastest since JN.1 or KP.2
🔸️Slower than the combo of KP.2/KP.3/KP.3.1.1
🔸️Dominance in NY within 2 weeks
🔸️Dominance in US in June Image
I focused on New York state because XFG* is far ahead there relative to anywhere else, and they still have a lot of sequencing. It will take some time to evaluate it in other places to confirm the growth rates.
I used @RajlabN 's Tableau to determine sequence frequencies over time. Thanks Raj
Read 4 tweets
JWeiland Profile picture
Apr 27
I'm not sure if we'll get quite as low in transmission this spring as the minimums the last 2 years because of a very low winter peak not as efficiently cleaning up the susceptables. A bit of uncharted territory, since immunity is waning but we don't have strong variant growth. Image
Even without a strongly growing variant, I'm still confident we will have a decently sized summer wave. Parts of the south and west basically had no wave at all in the winter, thus the susceptibility is slowly increasing. Image
But the question is, how long will the decline hold on until we start the summer increase without a new fast variant? If the decline hangs on until late May or June, we may get below 2023/24's lows.
Read 5 tweets
JWeiland Profile picture
Apr 14
🧬 Variant Evolution Rate Since 2020

We witnessed a huge weekly growth advantage in new variants for the first year after Omicron arrived, and then to a lesser extent after Pirola. Now we have 9 months of the lowest growth advantages since 2020. 🧵 Image
Both Alpha and Delta had only moderate divergence from their predecessors, but they increased transmission in a time with a mountain of people with no immunity to severe disease. Their waves of cases were moderate, but the waves of death and hospitalization were huge. Image
Omicron came in and wiped more than half of immunity to infection without heavily impacting resistances to severe disease. What it also did was open up a lot of new evolutionary potential for immune escape, and BA.2, BA.5, and XBBs demonstrate that impact well
Read 6 tweets

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