Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
JWeiland Profile picture
@JPWeiland
Aug 9 • 5 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
August 9th update:

Estimated daily infections reach 1 million. Remarkable infection rates for a summer surge. Only BA.2->BA.5 was higher in the 2022 summer.

🔸1,000,000 new infections/day
🔸1 in every 33 people currently infected
🔸74% higher than 12 month avg. Image
Prevalence by region:

Every region increasing in wastewater levels. Both the South and West are at roughly 12 month highs.

Midwest: 1 in 42 ⬆️
South: 1 in 25 ⬆️
Northest: 1 in 58 ⬆️
West: 1 in 22 ⬆️ Image
Make no mistake- though waning is a very important driver of waves, variant evolution plays a large role in the differences between years.

Last summer was "just" F456L mutation on XBBs.

This year we had FLiRT->KP.3->KP.3.1.1 back to back, each quickly overtaking the last. Image
This was part of the concern with the Pirola variant tree: a huge evolutionary jump on the spike may allow for a lot more optimization in the months after arrival. We saw the same thing with Omicron: many meaningful mutations in the first 9 months after it arrived.
@cml199002 Also note: this data is for the US, not Alberta. I don't know what the current stats are for Alberta.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with JWeiland

JWeiland Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @JPWeiland

JWeiland Profile picture
Jul 19
July 19th update:

Another substantial increase this week (+26%). Wastewater signal now higher than last summer's peak, and over a month earlier.

🔸780,000 new infections/day
🔸1 in every 43 people currently infected
🔸45% higher than 12 month avg. Image
Ratio of people currently infected by region:

Midwest: 1 in 59 ⬆️
South: 1 in 34 ⬆️
Northest: 1 in 73 ⬆️
West: 1 in 25 ⬆️ Image
I expect a peak in the next couple of weeks nationally. Regionally, I think the West at South are closer to peak than the Northeast and Midwest.
Read 4 tweets
JWeiland Profile picture
Jul 5
Largest spike AA evolutionary jumps from 2020-2024, plotted:

BA.1 Omiron's top spot was followed closely by JN.1 Pirola, and both stand well above the rest over the past 4 years. Image
Viewed from a different lens of total AA spike divergence from the current lineages, JN.1 takes the top spot. This is branch to branch distance. Also note BA.2 divergence from BA.1. Image
Divergence is not necessarily a direct predictor of impact to caseloads. A lot depends on the diversity of population antibody protection when the evolution occurs. BA.1 easily holds that title because of the lack of antibody diversity at arrival.
Read 4 tweets
JWeiland Profile picture
May 16
The cost of preventing a pandemic is far lower than the cost of dealing with a pandemic. The current response to H5N1 in bovine needs to be dramatically increased.
1) Federal funds for compensation of lost profits on H5N1 farms (increases cooperation)
2) Abundant sequencing of.. Image
H5N1 positive cows and mammals on or near outbreak farms
3) Ramp up testing of farms and farm animals
4) Detailed sequencing metadata: date, location, etc.
5) Guarantee privacy on any humans with symptoms, test, trace, isolate, seq any positives
6) Guarantee immunity for...
...migrant workers on milk farms to encourage cooporation
7) If no temporary ban, require testing on all raw milk lots
8) Improved safe cattle transfer. Require testing of mixed milk lot from farm and cow before transfer
9) Survalence testing of other cattle
Read 4 tweets
JWeiland Profile picture
May 8
What is "FLiRT"?

FLiRT is the clever nickname for two mutations on the spike protein of the highly mutated variant "Pirola", that accounts for >99% of all Covid right now.
F->L at position 456 and R->T at 346.
Both escape mutations were present last year, but never on Pirola. Image
The two mutations are like makeup and lipstick to disguise the virus a bit more to sneak past some of your antibodies from prior infection and vaccination. And she wears it well.
And what is "Pirola"? That's the name I coined for this highly mutated variant. This level of sudden mutation has only happened twice; Omicron, and Pirola. Pirola had even more new mutations than Omicron did when it evolved. A big jump like that definitely deserves a name. Image
Read 4 tweets
JWeiland Profile picture
Feb 1
A set of 8 highly mutated variant designated BA.2.87.1 were released from South Africa today from Sept-Nov 2023.

While this deserves close watch, at this point, I don't think it's as concerning as the arrival of Pirola. I'll explain my reasoning:

1/
Image
It's apparently been 4 months since the first sample collection date, and it still hasnt been detected in any other country that does sequencing.

When Pirola first appeared, there were sequences spotted all over the world within a week or two of first detection.

2/
BA.2.86 already was as fast as the fastest variants out there, and the L455S mutation supercharged it to JN.1. This JN.1 background is going to be a very big hill to climb for a variant that hasn't managed a foothold outside of SA yet in a number of months. Pirola in SA:

3/ Image
Read 7 tweets
JWeiland Profile picture
Jan 24
Biobot update 1/23/2024:

Wastewater receding quickly off of the peak, though still near 1 million new infections a day in America. Decline will continue.

🔸990,000 new infections/day
🔸1 in every 330 became infected today
🔸1 in every 33 people currently infected Image
My latest model run forecasts a steady decline of infections, with no variants competing for dominance against JN.1.

The forecast and result of my previous model (Nov 30) can be found here:

Peak numbers were missed by 0.5%.
Image
Image
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

Send Email!

:(