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Aug 10 12 tweets 4 min read Read on X
NEW: Russian sources claimed on August 9 that Ukrainian forces advanced further east in Kursk Oblast but are likely no longer operating as far north or as far west as Russian sources previously claimed on August 8. Tactical Update🧵(1/12)

1/ Geolocated footage published on August 9 indicates that Ukrainian forces were recently operating west of Sudzha, within the settlement, north of Sudzha near Kazachya Loknya, and northeast of Leonidovo and in Dmitriukov.Image
2/ A Russian milblogger claimed on August 9 that Ukrainian forces conducted another cross-border incursion northeast of Sumy City and advanced towards Kucherov (roughly one kilometer from the international border) but have not entered the settlement. Image
3/ A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast advanced as far east as Plekhovo (southeast of Sudzha) on the left bank of the Psyol River. Image
4/ ISW is recessing the claimed limit of Ukrainian advances up to Snagost (south of Korenevo), given that a Russian milblogger claimed on August 8 that Russian forces began clearing the settlement. Image
5/ ISW is also recessing the claimed limit of Ukrainian advances to the northern outskirts of Malaya Loknya (northwest of Sudzha and roughly 13 km from the international border) as Russian milbloggers claimed on August 9 that Russian forces counterattacked near the settlement. Image
6/ Russian milbloggers continued to issue contradictory statements about Ukrainian positions in Sudzha. One source claimed that Ukrainian forces are not operating within Sudzha, while another claimed that Ukrainian troops are located in the settlement but cannot operate freely. Image
7/ Other Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces partially control Sudzha and that the town is a contested "gray zone."
8/ Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces are also operating northeast of Sudzha near Martynovka; north of Sudzha near Vtoroy Knyazhiy, Ivnitsa, Zaoleshenka, and Russkoye Porechnoye (16 kilometers from the international border); and west of Sudzha near Goncharovka. Image
9/ A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces control the area near Korenevo (north of Sumy City and roughly 23 kilometers north of the international border) and denied reports of fighting on the settlement's outskirts. Image
10/ The Russian milblogger claimed on August 8 that Ukrainian forces control Novoivanovka (SE of Korenevo) and Lyubimovka (SE of Korenevo). Another Russian source claimed on August 9, however, that Russian forces regained lost positions in Novoivanovka and Leonidovo. Image
11/ A Russian source claimed that there is no confirmation of Ukrainian forces operating in Kromskiy Byki. Image
12/The vast majority of Russian reporting about Kursk Oblast on August 9 is not consistent with previous claims that mobile Ukrainian groups were operating beyond 20 kilometers into Kursk Oblast.

Latest: isw.pub/UkrWar080924

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More from @TheStudyofWar

Aug 9
The lack of a coherent Russian response to the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast and the reported rate of Ukrainian advance indicates that Ukrainian forces were able to achieve operational surprise along the border with Russia. 🧵(1/8)
2/ Both Russian and Ukrainian forces have struggled to achieve operational surprise in the past year and a half of fighting due to the partially transparent battlefield in Ukraine.
3/ Ukraine's ability to achieve operational surprise highlights that the widespread visual and sensor-based transparency that both sides have established does not translate into a fully transparent battlefield, however, and that the belligerents in Ukraine can leverage ambiguity around operational intent to achieve operational surprise.
Read 8 tweets
Aug 9
Potential Russian Courses of Action 🧵(1/6)

The Kremlin will almost certainly endeavor to retake Russian territory in Kursk Oblast that Ukrainian forces have seized and stop Ukrainian activity further into Russia, as substantial Ukrainian advances within Russia would be a strategic blow to Russian President Vladimir Putin's decades-long effort to cement a legacy of Russian stability, security, and geopolitical resurgence.

If Russian reporting on the situation in Kursk Oblast is accurate and if the Russian military command perceives the situation to be the same as Russian sources have described, then the Russian military command has an array of likely courses of action (COAs) it could pursue to respond to the Ukrainian operation in Kursk Oblast.
2/ ISW is not prepared at this time to assess which of these possible COAs is most likely, and it is possible that the Russian military command may not rely on only one COA to respond to the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast. The Russian military command's decision-making will be influenced by its perception of the size and capability of Ukrainian forces in the area, about which ISW makes no assessment. The following COAs are not presented in order of likelihood:
3/ COA 1: The Russian military command may decide to use existing conscripts, Federal Security Service (FSB) border guards, Rosgvardia, and other irregular forces already deployed to the international border area to push Ukrainian forces back and defend against the Ukrainian operation in Kursk Oblast.Image
Read 6 tweets
Aug 9
Tactical Update 🧵(1/12)

Geolocated footage and Russian claims indicate that Ukrainian forces continued rapid advances further into Kursk Oblast on August 8, and Ukrainian forces are reportedly present in areas as far as 35 kilometers from the international border with Sumy Oblast. Ukrainian forces most certainly do not control all of the territory within the maximalist extent of Russian claims about Ukrainian advances in Kursk Oblast, however.Image
2/ Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces advanced as far as Kromskiye Byki and Molyutino (up to 35 kilometers from the international border and 17 kilometers southeast of Lgov) but noted that these are small groups not immediately trying to hold territory.
3/ Russian milbloggers issued contradictory claims about Ukrainian positions in Sudzha, with some milbloggers claiming that Ukrainian forces seized the settlement while other milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces only seized part of the settlement. Image
Read 13 tweets
Aug 9
NEW: Ukrainian cross-border mechanized offensive operations into Kursk Oblast that began on Aug. 6 are continuing as part of a Ukrainian operational effort within Russian territory.

ISW will not offer assessments about the intent of this Ukrainian operation to avoid compromising Ukrainian operational security. 🧵(1/5)Image
2/ ISW will continue to map, track, and evaluate operations as they unfold but will not offer insight into Ukrainian planning, tactics, or techniques.
3/ ISW is not prepared to map control of terrain in Russia at this time & will instead map observed events associated w/ the Ukrainian incursion into Russia as well as the maximalist extent of claims & unverified reports about Ukrainian advances. Details: isw.pub/KurskIncursion…
Read 5 tweets
Aug 9
NEW: ISW and @criticalthreats continue to assess that a coordinated large-scale drone and missile attack on Israel by Iran and its Axis of Resistance is the most likely Iranian response to Israel’s killing of senior Axis leaders.

More ⬇️🧵(1/5)Image
Image
Image
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2/ Iranian leaders may decide that Iran cannot successfully design and execute a strike that would penetrate Israeli air defenses to establish deterrence, despite strong statements by its officials and media.
3/ Iranian leaders may additionally calculate that the risk of triggering a large-scale Israeli response is too high to justify conducting a coordinated large-scale missile and drone attack.
Read 5 tweets
Aug 8
NEW: Ukrainian forces have made confirmed advances up to 10 kilometers into Russia's Kursk Oblast amid continued mechanized offensive operations on Russian territory on August 7.

🧵(1/9)Image
2/ Geolocated footage published on August 6 and 7 shows that Ukrainian armored vehicles have advanced to positions along the 38K-030 route about 10 kilometers from the international border.
3/ The current confirmed extent and location of Ukrainian advances in Kursk Oblast indicate that Ukrainian forces have penetrated at least two Russian defensive lines and a stronghold.
Read 9 tweets

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