Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Aug 10, 2024 4 tweets 1 min read Read on X
Just plugged today's CDC numbers into my new forecasting model (releases Mon). My initial reaction was "Jesus Christ. That's bad. That's really really bad."

If you live in the West in particular, it's currently about as bad as last winter. About 1 in 23 infectious out West. CDC regional COVID-19 transmission graph. The West region is nearly identical to last winter's peak.
Those of us modeling have been talking about the late-summer wave -- all year -- as a given.

The 1-day isolation policy, the lack of a twice-annual updated vax, & the vilification of masks are emblematic of #LaissezFairePublicHealth. A wintery summer surge is the result.
I hope the present numbers are revised downward, but there is no reason to suspect that. In my view, the current estimates are as likely to be overestimates as underestimates.
Here's the updated CDC COVID "heat" map released today, recolored with dark red to equal more transmission. Highest transmission: West coast, Utah, Wyoming, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Florida, Carolinas

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More from @michael_hoerger

Jun 24
PMC COVlD Dashboard, Jun 23, 2025 (U.S.)

🔥Biggest uptick since Jan
🔥1 in 167 actively infectious
🔥>2 million weekly infections
🔥700-1,200 resulting excess deaths from weekly infections

Track transmission closer to home w/our new state & international resources 👇

🧵1/6
PMC COVlD Dashboard, Jun 23, 2025 (U.S.)

🔹With >90% probability, we have entered the 11th COVlD wave.
🔹In a room of 50 people, there is already a 1 in 4 chance of an exposure.
🔹We expect nearly 15 million infections in the next month, and rising.

🧵2/6Current Levels for Jun 23, 2025	 % of the Population Infectious	 0.6% (1 in 167)	 New Daily Infections	 287000	 New Weekly Infections	 2009000	 Resulting Weekly Long COVID Cases	 100,000 to 402,000	 Resulting Weekly Excess Deaths	 700 to 1,200	 	 Monthly Forecast	 Average % of the Population Infectious	 1.0% (1 in 97)	 Average New Daily Infections	 493300	 New Infections During the Next Month	 14799000	 Resulting Monthly Long COVID Cases	 740,000 to 2,960,000	 Resulting Monthly Excess Deaths	 5,300 to 8,800	 	 Running Totals	 Infections Nationwide in 2025	 74869000	 Average Number of Infect...
PMC COVlD Dashboard, Jun 23, 2025 (U.S.)

We continue to expect transmission to break 500,000 daily infections in the U.S. around July 9th.

This is the same prediction as last week, as the forecast was dead on. Yet, there is considerably uncertainty around this timing.

🧵3/6Longitudinal transmission, past 12 months and 1-month forecast
Read 6 tweets
Jun 17
1) PMC COVlD Dashboard, June 16, 2025 (U.S.)

Current transmission (red line) closely tracks that of summer 2023 (yellow line).

We expect to break 500k daily infections between July 9 and the end of July. Our current forecast...Year over year graph of tranmission
2) PMC COVlD Dashboard, June 16, 2025 (U.S.)

Our current forecast is a bit more aggressive, predicting breaking 500k daily infections by July 9. The 2023 trend suggests end of July.

The 95% confidence interval shows large variation. Note that...Past 12 months of transmission (U.S.) and forecast
3) PMC COVlD Dashboard, June 16, 2025 (U.S.)

Note that CDC and Biobot both had retroactive corrections to last week's data, meaning the relative "lull" will last a little longer than the uncorrected data suggested. No big news on NB.1.8.1.

All good news, but...10 pandemic waves. Soon 11
Read 7 tweets
Jun 16
1) Here's a quick example of how the federal government is censoring the best scientific research. It's not just cuts to ongoing research.

It's new grant submissions too... "No forbidden words found"
2) In January, I re-submitted a promising Covid/cancer grant to a non-federal funder. Hundreds of pages. Hundreds of hours of work. The best proposal I've submitted as a scientist.

Out of curiosity, I used Sean Mullen's Scan Assist tool to see how many banned words it had...
3) The proposal had 1,750 banned words. No big deal -- they're non-federal.

BUT I had planned to submit a smaller version to NIH this month as a "back up." Impossible!

It's not a matter of using a thesaurus or the find/replace command. The grant is on *Covid*... 1,750 banned words found
Read 13 tweets
Jun 9
1) PMC COVlD Dashboard, June 9, 2025

CDC wastewater surveillance data show transmission rising. This is our forecast if transmission growth follows typical patterns.

The high & low estimates could be thought of as optimistic & pessimistic scenarios for NB.1.8.1.Forecast graph: Rising transmission the next month
2) PMC COVlD Dashboard, June 9, 2025

Notice that current transmission (red line, lower left) tracks closely with two years ago (yellow), slightly below the median (gray), and not far below last year (orange).

Consider each of these trajectories realistic scenarios.Image
3) PMC COVlD Dashboard, June 9, 2025

All indications are that we are headed into the start of an 11th national wave in the U.S.

We could percolate near the lull point another couple weeks (fingers crossed), but that scenario is becoming less likely.Graph of 10 C19 waves
Read 7 tweets
Jun 3
1/ PMC COVlD Dashboard, June 2, 2025 (U.S.)

National COVlD transmission recently fell to its lowest levels since the pre-Delta era.

It's go-time for many who have delayed medical appointments. The situation will likely get much worse in Jul/Aug.
2/ PMC COVlD Dashboard, June 2, 2025 (U.S.)

An estimated 1 in 211 are actively infectious. Most states are "low" or "very low" per CDC.

The situation remains serious even in a relative "lull." >1.5 million weekly estimated infections to result in 600-900 excess deaths.C19 heat map
year over year graph, tracking closely with the median and past 2 years
Current Levels for Jun 2, 2025	 % of the Population Infectious	 0.5% (1 in 211)	 New Daily Infections	 227000	 New Weekly Infections	 1589000	 Resulting Weekly Long COVID Cases	 79,000 to 318,000	 Resulting Weekly Excess Deaths	 600 to 900	 	 Monthly Forecast	 Average % of the Population Infectious	 0.7% (1 in 139)	 Average New Daily Infections	 344566.6667	 New Infections During the Next Month	 10337000	 Resulting Monthly Long COVID Cases	 517,000 to 2,067,000	 Resulting Monthly Excess Deaths	 3,700 to 6,200	 	 Running Totals	 Infections Nationwide in 2025	 70132000	 Average Number of Infe...
Graph of the whole pandemic, 11th wave forthcoming
3/ PMC COVlD Dashboard, June 2, 2025 (U.S.)

By the end of the month, we forecast an increase to 450k daily infections. If NB.1.8.1 takes off, closer to 600k. If overhyped, percolating only slightly higher.Past 12 months and forecast
Read 5 tweets
May 26
1) PMC Dashboard, May 26, 2025 (U.S.)

The lull exit is coming. Despite being in a lull:

🔥1 in 180 actively infectious
🔥1.9 million weekly infections
🔥>93,000 new #LongCOVID cases from the week's infections
🔥1,100 excess deaths from the week's infections

This is a "lull."
2) PMC Dashboard, May 26, 2025 (U.S.)

The forecast calls for a near-doubling in transmission the next month to 450k daily infections.

The 95% confidence interval includes flat transmission (percolating), or escalating to 650k (if NB.1.8.1 takes off). Forecasting graph, summarized in post
3) PMC Dashboard, May 26, 2025 (U.S.)

Looking at year-over-year transmission, 2025 (red) is closely tracking the median (gray).

It transmission accelerates, it could look more like last year (orange). If it slows, more like two years ago (yellow). Year-over-year graph summarized in post
Read 7 tweets

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