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Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
@michael_hoerger
Aug 10, 2024 • 4 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
Just plugged today's CDC numbers into my new forecasting model (releases Mon). My initial reaction was "Jesus Christ. That's bad. That's really really bad."

If you live in the West in particular, it's currently about as bad as last winter. About 1 in 23 infectious out West. CDC regional COVID-19 transmission graph. The West region is nearly identical to last winter's peak.
Those of us modeling have been talking about the late-summer wave -- all year -- as a given.

The 1-day isolation policy, the lack of a twice-annual updated vax, & the vilification of masks are emblematic of #LaissezFairePublicHealth. A wintery summer surge is the result.
I hope the present numbers are revised downward, but there is no reason to suspect that. In my view, the current estimates are as likely to be overestimates as underestimates.
Here's the updated CDC COVID "heat" map released today, recolored with dark red to equal more transmission. Highest transmission: West coast, Utah, Wyoming, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Florida, Carolinas

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More from @michael_hoerger

Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Apr 22
🧵1 of 8 | PMC Dashboard, April 21, 2025 (U.S.)

🌤️Only 1 in 5 days of the pandemic have seen transmission as low as today
🌤️1 in 196 actively infectious
⚡️BUT still 1.7 million weekly infections, resulting in >85,000 LC cases and up to 1,000 deaths

I'll walk you through it... Current Levels for Apr 21, 2025 % of the Population Infectious 0.5% (1 in 196) New Daily Infections 244000 New Weekly Infections 1708000 Resulting Weekly Long COVID Cases 85,000 to 342,000 Resulting Weekly Excess Deaths 600 to 1,000 Monthly Forecast Average % of the Population Infectious 0.7% (1 in 147) Average New Daily Infections 324800 New Infections During the Next Month 9744000 Resulting Monthly Long COVID Cases 487,000 to 1,949,000 Resulting Monthly Excess Deaths 3,500 to 5,800 Running Totals Infections Nationwide in 2025 62331000 Average Number of Infecti...
🧵2 of 8 | PMC Dashboard, April 21, 2025 (U.S.)

We're in the 6th year. See the small red line, bottom left. Notice how closely it tracks the median (gray), year 4 (yellow), & year 5 (orange).

Acknowledging caveats, those are plausible gist-level scenarios for months ahead. year over year graph, summarized in post
🧵3 of 8 | PMC Dashboard, April 21, 2025 (U.S.)

Expect steady transmission bouncing up and down around the current national lull-level estimate the next several weeks. 200-350k daily infections nationally.

This is about as low as lulls bottom out anymore. Past 12 months and forecast, summarized in post
Read 8 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Apr 14
🧵1/5 | PMC Dashboard, Apr1il 14, 2025 (U.S.)

🔹2.2 million weekly infections
🔹1 in 149 actively infectious
🔹>100,000 LC cases resulting from the week's infections
🔹>800 deaths resulting from the week's infections
🔹"Lull" transmission steady/slightly decliningCurrent Levels for Apr 14, 2025 % of the Population Infectious 0.7% (1 in 149) New Daily Infections 320000 New Weekly Infections 2240000 Resulting Weekly Long COVID Cases 112,000 to 448,000 Resulting Weekly Excess Deaths 800 to 1,300 Monthly Forecast Average % of the Population Infectious 0.7% (1 in 138) Average New Daily Infections 345366.6667 New Infections During the Next Month 10361000 Resulting Monthly Long COVID Cases 518,000 to 2,072,000 Resulting Monthly Excess Deaths 3,700 to 6,200 Running Totals Infections Nationwide in 2025 60891000 Average Number of ...
🧵2/5 | PMC Dashboard, Apr1il 14, 2025 (U.S.)

Year-over-year transmission (red line, lower left) is tracking the median (grey), year 4 (yellow), and year 5 (orange) closely.

If that trend continues, expect steady yet bumpy transmission the next couple months, until June/July.line graphs, described in tweet
🧵3/5 | PMC Dashboard, Apr1il 14, 2025 (U.S.)

The heat map shows only 4 states in the CDC 'high' level and none in the 'very' high level.

Check local data. Those timing activities to lulls may see a clear opportunity.heat map, described in tweet
Read 6 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Apr 9
The NIH Clinical Center drops universal masking after 5 months of protecting patients, family, & staff.

Wastewater-derived estimates indicate 2.79 million Americans are getting Covid per week AND top actuaries suggest an American dies of Covid every 3 minutes.

🧵1/5 Masks are optional beginning April 11. Staff will mask on request.
These are the current wastewater-derived estimates of transmission.

2.79 million Covid infections/week in the U.S. in the current high "lull."
🧵2/5
This thread with video explains in exquisite detail how every 3 minutes in 2025 an American dies of Covid.

🧵3/5
Read 5 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Apr 7
1) PMC COVlD Dashboard, April 7, 2025 (U.S.)

🔹1 in 120 actively infectious
🔹1 in 3 chance of exposure in a room of 50
🔹2.8 million weekly infections
🔹>140,000 resulting LC cases from the week's infections
🔹>1,000 deaths resulting from the week's infections Current Levels for Apr 7, 2025 % of the Population Infectious 0.8% (1 in 120) New Daily Infections 399000 New Weekly Infections 2793000 Resulting Weekly Long COVID Cases 140,000 to 559,000 Resulting Weekly Excess Deaths 1,000 to 1,700 Monthly Forecast Average % of the Population Infectious 1.0% (1 in 105) Average New Daily Infections 455766.6667 New Infections During the Next Month 13673000 Resulting Monthly Long COVID Cases 684,000 to 2,735,000 Resulting Monthly Excess Deaths 4,900 to 8,100 Running Totals Infections Nationwide in 2025 55591000 Average Number of...
2) Watch this video to understand how we use excess death data from one of the world's largest reinsurers to estimate how this week's infections will result in >1,000 deaths.
3) Transmission is steady or declining across much of the nation, but remains high in 11 states and DC, per the CDC.

Other sources, such as WastewaterSCAN, show a near doubling of transmission in the Northeast the past few weeks, so remain cautious.
Read 4 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Mar 31
🧵1 of 5
PMC Dashboard, March 31, 2025 (U.S.)

🔹800-1,400 deaths expected to result from this week's infections (new stat, see video next Tweet)
🔹100,000+ Long Covid conditions to result from this week's infections
🔹1 in 142 actively infectious todayCurrent Levels for Mar 31, 2025 % of the Population Infectious 0.7% (1 in 142) New Daily Infections 337000 New Weekly Infections 2359000 Resulting Weekly Long COVID Cases 118,000 to 472,000 Resulting Weekly Excess Deaths 800 to 1,400 Monthly Forecast Average % of the Population Infectious 0.8% (1 in 120) Average New Daily Infections 397233.3333 New Infections During the Next Month 11917000 Resulting Monthly Long COVID Cases 596,000 to 2,383,000 Resulting Monthly Excess Deaths 4,300 to 7,100 Running Totals Infections Nationwide in 2025 52303000 Average Number of ...
🧵2 of 5
PMC Dashboard, March 31, 2025 (U.S.)

This video explains U.S. COVID excess death statistics, which we have incorporated into the dashboard.

🧵3 of 5
PMC Dashboard, March 31, 2025 (U.S.)

The transmission forecast suggests 300-500k daily infections the next month. If the data get retroactively corrected downward, we could dip to 200k.

Check local dashboards, and time events accordingly.Forecast graph, described in post
Read 5 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Mar 31
PMC Update on #ExcessDeaths

🔥109,000-175,000 people in the U.S. are expected to die as a result of COVID in 2025, based on estimates derived from Swiss Re
🔥COVID deaths expected to be on par with lung cancer in the U.S. in 2025
🔥Death data added to the dashboard
2) Full video links to learn more about COVID #ExcessDeaths in the U.S.

Dashboard page (presently featured): pmc19.com/data
Downloadable file: pmc19.com/data/deaths033…
Veed platform: veed.io/view/558039f4-…
3) The new #ExcessDeath statistics build on what we described in the 5-year pandemic anniversary video.

Watch from 12:14-20:00 to see how simplistic models underestimate COVID deaths. The Swiss Re model solves that problem. PMC extends that work.
Read 6 tweets

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