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Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
@michael_hoerger
Aug 10, 2024 • 4 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
Just plugged today's CDC numbers into my new forecasting model (releases Mon). My initial reaction was "Jesus Christ. That's bad. That's really really bad."

If you live in the West in particular, it's currently about as bad as last winter. About 1 in 23 infectious out West. CDC regional COVID-19 transmission graph. The West region is nearly identical to last winter's peak.
Those of us modeling have been talking about the late-summer wave -- all year -- as a given.

The 1-day isolation policy, the lack of a twice-annual updated vax, & the vilification of masks are emblematic of #LaissezFairePublicHealth. A wintery summer surge is the result.
I hope the present numbers are revised downward, but there is no reason to suspect that. In my view, the current estimates are as likely to be overestimates as underestimates.
Here's the updated CDC COVID "heat" map released today, recolored with dark red to equal more transmission. Highest transmission: West coast, Utah, Wyoming, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Florida, Carolinas

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More from @michael_hoerger

Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Aug 16
🚩🚩🚩
As a vigorous defender of #CDC data, their switch from using normalized to non-normalized COVlD wastewater surveillance data today harms data quality.

"Normalizing" means accounting for basic confounders like rain levels. It is a choice to use worse data.
1/5🧵 Image
Historically, the CDC data have correlated near-perfectly with similar metrics, such as Biobot's wastewater estimates (still active) or the IHME true case estimates (through mid-2023).

The changes reduce those correlations. It's like going from an A+ to a B.

2/5🧵
You can readily see the loss of data quality in the PMC "whole pandemic" graph (preview shown, subject to change) with choppier waves, caused by the CDC adding extra noise to the data and applying retroactively from BA.1 Omicron to present.

3/5🧵 Longitudinal graph of the pandemic waves. Notice how they start becoming choppier in 2022, as a result of today's changes at the CDC
Read 5 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Aug 12
PMC COVID Dashboard, August 11, 2025 (U.S.)

The CDC says transmission is heating up.

"Very High" (3)
🔺Guam
🔺Hawai'i
🔺Louisiana

"High" (12)
🔺Alabama
🔺Alaska
🔺California
🔺Colorado
🔺Delaware
🔺Florida
🔺Indiana
🔺Mississippi
🔺Nevada
🔺S. Carolina
🔺Texas
🔺Utah

🧵1/12Heat map from CDC data. High/Very high states noted in post
Transmission is highest in these regions. Graphics note the CDC levels and PMC prevalence estimates.

🔥Louisiana (Very High): 1 in 19 actively infectious
🔥Guam (Very High): 1 in 26
🔥Hawai'i (Very High): 1 in 28
🔥Texas (High): 1 in 45

🧵2/12 Graphics show heat maps and prevalence estimates, noted in the post
Statewide transmission remains "High" in Florida, according to the CDC. PMC estimates 1 in 50 actively infectious.

Several cities report "Very High" transmission. Several sites are offline.

🧵3/12 Heat map and prevalence estimate noted in the post
Read 12 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Jul 29
PMC COVID Dashboard, July 28, 2025 (U.S.)
🧵1/12

PMC estimates 400,000 new daily infections. 1 in 118 people actively infectious.

Weekly stats:
🔹2.8 million infections (>40x reported cases)
🔹>140,000 resulting #LongCOVID cases
🔹>1,000 resulting excess deaths Heat map Very High: Louisiana, Guam High: Hawai'i, Florida
PMC COVID Dashboard, July 28, 2025 (U.S.)
🧵2/12

Please excuse any typos and delays. Any time Mimal's boot turns deep red, we're doing local outreach in addition to dashboard work, etc.

If you don't know Mimal yet, you won't be able to unsee them.
es.wikipedia.org/wiki/MIMALDeep red boot = Louisiana
Minnesota (M), Iowa (I), Missouri (M), Arkansas (A), Louisiana (L) = Mimal Louisiana is the boot. Sometimes depicted with Kentucky fried chicken on a Tennessee pan.
PMC COVID Dashboard, July 28, 2025 (U.S.)
🧵3/12

It's HOT COVID SUMMER in the Deep South. No geographic/political prejudices, see next.

Covid is burning through Guam, Louisiana, Florida, and Texas (underestimate due to sites down). Louisiana: 1 in 32, Very High (CDC)
Texas: 1 in 98, Moderate (underestimate, CDC)
Guam: 1 in 25, Very High (CDC)
Florida: 1 in 59, High (CDC)
Read 12 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Jul 25
U.S. CDC numbers just released. Good news (for those not in Louisiana). "Only" a 5% national increase.

2025 has closely tracked with summer 2023 transmission. A 12-13% increase would have been expected based on those numbers. That said... Up: Midwest, Northeast Down: West, South
real-time data have been prone to retroactive corrections. This is frustrating, of course, because it leaves people making decisions based on data that are only of good quality when 2 weeks old.

If we saw a 12% increase this week, I'd say look at 2023 for a glimpse...
at the future. Instead, I would consider these plausible scenarios:
🔹Wave still similar to 2023
🔹Later wave with schools more implicated
🔹Something temporarily much better

Of course, temporarily better often means...
Read 6 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Jul 21
1. PMC COVlD Dashboard, July 21, 2025 (U.S.)

COVlD is surging in 7 states, according to the CDC.
🔹Hawai'i (Very High)
🔹California (High)
🔹Nevada (High)
🔹Texas (High)
🔹Louisiana (High)
🔹Florida (High)
🔹South Carolina (High) Heat map, summarized in post
2. PMC COVlD Dashboard, July 21, 2025 (U.S.)

Western surge:
🔹California: 1 in 63 actively infectious, much higher in LA & Bay areas
🔹Hawai'i: 1 in 35 actively infectious
🔹Nevada: 1 in 63 actively infectious

These are wastewater derived estimates, not from individual tests CA map with stat summarized in post
NV map with stat summarized in post
HI map with stat summarized in post
3. PMC COVlD Dashboard, July 21, 2025 (U.S.)

Southern surge:

🔹Texas: 1 in 56
🔹Louisiana (New Orleans): 1 in 65
🔹Florida: 1 in 66
🔹South Carolina: 1 in 71

Again, wastewater estimates (wise indicator), not individual testing (low-quality data). SC map and stat noted in post
LA map and stat noted in post
FL map and stat noted in post
TX map and stat noted in post
Read 12 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Jul 15
1) PMC COVlD Dashboard, July 14, 2025 (U.S.) 🧵

We estimate 1 in 148 Americans are actively infectious. This equates to 2.3 million infections/week, expected to result in >100,000 new #LongCOVID conditions & >800 deaths.

A room of 100 people is a coin toss of an exposure. Figure shows each wave of the pandemic. Tables: Current Levels for Jul 14, 2025 % of the Population Infectious 0.7% (1 in 148) New Daily Infections 324000 New Weekly Infections 2268000 Resulting Weekly Long COVID Cases 113,000 to 454,000 Resulting Weekly Excess Deaths 800 to 1,300 Monthly Forecast Average % of the Population Infectious 1.3% (1 in 80) Average New Daily Infections 598766.6667 New Infections During the Next Month 17963000 Resulting Monthly Long COVID Cases 898,000 to 3,593,000 Resulting Monthly Excess Deaths 6,400 to 10,700 Running Totals Infection...
2) PMC COVlD Dashboard, July 14, 2025 (U.S.) 🧵

Transmission (red) is closely tracking the path of 2 years ago (yellow). However, the incoming data are spotty. >20% of CDC states have limited/no data, & Biobot hasn't reported in weeks.

Could be MUCH worse or slightly better. Graph of year over year transmission. The current year (red) is tracking the path of two years ago (yellow) extremely closely. Two years ago, the peak was around September 1, at about 1 million daily estimated infections, and significantly higher than the Delta wave (blue).
3) PMC COVlD Dashboard, July 14, 2025 (U.S.) 🧵

Our model formalizes the mathematical assumptions in those predictions. If transmission follows what we know in terms of how waves grow or slow generally and historical patterns, this is what we'd expect.

The spottiness of the current real-time data reduce precision substantially. Retroactive corrections can make the forecast jump around from better to worse from one week to the next. Expect the worst. Hope for the best.Graph shows national transmission expected to increase the next several weeks.
Read 11 tweets

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