Thread by @LovelyLad_

The Fourth day of the Kursk Incursion According to open sources
Tactical Analysis
Thread🧵

As of the 9th of August the Russian Intelligence perplexed by the situation on the first days and unable to properly identify enemy formations would start to be more efficient

The previous day reserves started to form up in the towns of Bol'shoe Soldatskoe and Belitsa, the Ukrainians didn't expect them to be engaged so soon instead they expected them to wait for a higher concentration but they would be proven wrong.

Russian Air reconnaissance would observe in the morning for Avenues of attack, they would discover an eerie silence inside Goncharovka, something that was unexpected as it was situated on an important tactical height.
The reason for that would be the withdrawal of heavy equipment

The newly arrived Russian tactical reserves would attack from 2 avenues, their objectives would be to relieve the trapped Russian troops of the 488th, destroy the Ukrainian troops on the eastern part of Sudzha and secure the height at Gocharovka.

The problem with the Ukrainian defense in this sector was that the Ukrainian positions in Mirnyi could very easily be cut off, their southern flank was unprotected as they expected the remotely placed mines to stop the Russians on the Belitsa road
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These remotely placed mines would have passed their Self-Destruction time as they were placed around 48 hours earlier meaning that the Russian could very easily exploit the weaker southern flank.
2/2

Around 9AM the Russians would initiate the Counter attacks, the first Russian mechanized company would move south and try to dislodge the Ukrainian troops from Martynovka.
The fighting in this axis would be the easiest for the Ukrainians.

The Russian column would get ambushed from Kruglik with NLAWs and after taking hefty fire they would switch their attention on dislodging the Ukrainian element from Kruglik as tanks of the 22nd were observing the road outside Martynovka.

The Russians were only able to dislodge some forward Ukrainian positions during their assault on Martinovka in exchange for some serious losses among their forces

In the south the Russian Column would manage to enter Goncharovka almost without resistance and then immediately taking the Ukrainian troops in the Hospital by surprise.

The Ukrainian troops would be in a difficult situation as the Russians were rushing into the town.
In response the Ukrainians would immediately deploy their tactical reserve which would be the 99th Battalion of the 61st brigade.

The Svoboda Rusiya company held off the Russians until reinforcements arrived which would manage to push them out, some Russians would leave, some would be cleared out but by the evening the town was clear.

Meanwhile on the other side of the river the Russian 488th counter attacked the Ukrainian troops around Mirniy, the Ukrainians were able to hold off the Russians at the time but if Martynovka or Goncharovka feel the situation would have been very difficult.

The Ukrainian troops in the eastern bank withdrew after the Russians were cleared in Goncharovka and disaster was averted.

On the other fronts, the situation was relatively quite
The raiding group of the 80th air assault withdrew overnight and the BTG would setup a defense on the northern flank.
Rotations and certain redirections would also happened to west.

Some Ukrainian reconnaissance units would advance around Russkoe Porechnoe to do recon and assist in artillery observing.

The only other assault that happened was conducted in the morning by a company of the 82nd reinforced with an armored plt from the 80th in attempt to move towards the bridges but the small grouping was not able to push through.

Today was a day that left neither side satisfied the Ukrainians were not able to advance and they were put under significant pressure in Suzhda while the Russians failed to achieve their goals with their counter attacks, now uncertainty exists moving forward

The Ukrainians despite that did understand their mistakes and they would deploy additional remotely placed mines on the road to stop further Russian attempts.

As a final note for the people that are having doubts about these analyses I'm leaving this here.
A video came out days later confirming the area of the breach that I talked about on Day 1
there are other examples but this is the clearest one

Thanks for reading.