When we talk about immigration, we're often told that we need immigration because our public services, like the NHS, are reliant on it.
A short 🧵 on why this is nonsense - and why we shouldn't let the NHS be a thought-terminating cliché when discussing migration:
Let's start with a basic point - most migrants don't come to the UK to work in the NHS.
In fact, according to analysis from @BernoulliDefect, just 2.6% of the 1.22 million migrants who came to the UK in 2023 did so using the Health and Social Care Visa route.
It's not even fair to say that immigrants are *disproportionately* likely to work in the NHS - thanks again to @BernoulliDefect.
Clearly then, it's possible to cut immigration - even radically so - without impacting the NHS' access to an overseas labour pool...
But maybe it's still fair to say that the system is 'dependent' on migration? After all, we don't have enough people training to be doctors and nurses here in the UK - it's simply inevitable that we have to prop up our system with foreign-trained practitioners, right?
Nope - this is entirely a self-imposed problem.
In partnership with the British Medical Association, the Government caps the number of training places at UK medical schools - currently it's 7,500, though there are indications that this might be increased over time to 15,000.
When the cap was temporarily lifted in 2020/21, demand for medical training places shot up - before the cap was reimposed in 2022.
The obstacle to a self-sustaining NHS workforce is the UK Government's reticence to make a long-term investment in the UK's domestic workforce.
This decision stems back to 2008, when the BMA voted to cap the number of medical places and ban the opening of new medical schools - for fear of "overproducing" doctors and "devaluing the profession".
This is racketeering and protectionism, plain and simple.
Between 2010 and 2021, 348,000 UK-based applicants were refused a place on a nursing course.
The House of Lords found that, in 2016 alone, 770 straight-A students were rejected from all medical courses to which they applied.
Failing to train our own workforce is a choice.
And, of course, there are second-order impacts of migration on public services as well. Like the rest of us, migrants use the NHS - between 2010 and 2020, there were 7 million new GP registrations by migrants.
That's BEFORE the 2022/23 spike in overall migration.
"But what if we rejected those applicants because they weren't good enough? We don't want low-quality medical practitioners."
As @93vintagejones notes, foreign-trained doctors are 2.5x more likely to be referred to the GMC as unfit to practice than British-trained doctors.
We've known for years that foreign-trained doctors are more likely to fall below expected standards than British-trained ones.
We're substituting a high-quality domestic workforce for a low-quality international one, thanks to BMA protectionism and government incompetence.
"But training takes time! We won't be able to fill those gaps immediately."
First, successful management of public services requires a long-term perspective.
Second, that may be the case - so create a special, time-limited visa route for practitioners from certain countries.
Plenty of countries have schemes that enable high-quality migrants to come to the country for a fixed period of time, under particular conditions.
A policy of using migrant doctors to fill short-term gaps doesn't require us to open the borders in perpetuity - obviously.
"But even if you opened those training places, you wouldn't fill them with British people."
Once again, we know that this isn't true - when the cap was temporarily removed, applications increased.
And if that doesn't work, there's a case for increasing public sector pay.
However we choose to address the NHS workforce, the key takeaway is that we shouldn't allow this to be a thought-terminating cliché.
Most migrants don't contribute to the NHS.
Our "reliance" on migration is entirely self-imposed.
We can choose to do things differently.
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In just fifty years, Dubai has transformed from an obscure fishing village into a city of global significance 🇦🇪
And despite popular misconceptions, oil revenues contribute less than 1% of Dubai's GDP today.
A 🧵 on the remarkable story of Dubai's development...
You read that right - unlike nearby Abu Dhabi, Dubai's economy is not powered by oil revenues.
In fact, Dubai's remarkable growth is the product of shrewd investments, business-friendly tax and regulatory rules, and an uncompromising approach to political stability.
Modern Dubai was founded as a fishing village on the Persian Gulf at some point in the 18th century.
Throughout the early 19th century, Dubai - as well as other neighbouring Gulf states - fell under British influence. In 1820, these small Gulf fell under a British protectorate.
Ryanair can take you from London to Italy for less than £15.
But have you ever wondered how budget airlines actually work?
A short 🧵 on how European budget airlines can afford to deliver such cheap flights...
European budget airlines - like Ryanair, WizzAir, and EasyJet - continue to record impressive operating incomes despite rock-bottom prices.
From March 2023 to March 2024, Ryanair recorded €13.44 billion in revenue, with a net income of €1.92 billion.
The European budget airline model relies on making efficiencies in three key ways:
1. Stripping back the user experience to the bare minimum 2. Reducing operating costs by making efficiencies 3. Shrewd network-building that creates, rather than responds to, demand
Increasingly, soft-touch Britain looks like a European outlier when it comes to immigration 🇬🇧🇪🇺
Many of our traditionally liberal neighbours in north and western Europe are shifting to the right on migration and integration.
A 🧵 on Europe's rightward shift...
🇳🇱 THE NETHERLANDS 🇳🇱
After the anti-Islam, anti-migration Party For Freedom (PVV) emerged as the largest party at the country's November 2023 general election, the Netherlands has a new right-wing government.
The coalition will see the PVV govern alongside three other parties.
The PVV is headed by Geert Wilders, a political firebrand. Wilders has previously campaigned to ban the Qur'an, and to close all mosques in the Netherlands.
Let me reiterate - the PVV is now the largest party in the Dutch government.
Alongside defence and border security, maintaining law and order is one of the first duties of any state - but in the UK today, many laws are just not being enforced.
A short 🧵 on the UK's law enforcement crisis - and the signs that private security is emerging to fill the gap:
When we talk about law and order in the UK, we often talk about a few distinct but related issues:
- softening of the law around some crimes
- soft sentences
- inaccurate data reporting
- generalised disorder
- non-enforcement of the law
Today, I want to focus on the latter.
In May 2024, London's Met Police announced that it would no longer be policing fare evasion on London buses.
"Since this incident happened, we have stopped our involvement in supporting Transport for London fare evasion operations."