Kursk Offensive Day 5 Update 10 AUG 2024 16:45 PDT
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Breach: 58.9 km
Depth: up to 28.0 km
Ukraine control: 536 sq km (high confidence🟧)
Gray area: another 320.7 sq km (🟨)
Total area: 856.7 sq km
🏁= Ukrainian presence visually confirmed
1/n
Russian sources claim, without evidence, that Ukrainian forces occupied Krasnooktyabrskoe and reached the eastern edge of Korenevo. No change at Korenevo. Russian claim extended from Snagost to Krasnooktyabrskoe.
Kursk 2/n
There was a small argument on the team that Russian info about fighting in Viktorovka was both the one by Mala Loknya and near Uspenovka - info was getting conflated. (e.g. Myrne vs Myrne)
We did not adjust the map, but the area by Uspenovka is lit up on NASA FIRMS.
Kursk 3/n
Russian claimed Iskander-M missile strike on Ukrainian position west of Semenovka. In our assessment, Ukrainian forces traveled on side roads from Zelenyi Shlyakh.
Russian video did not provide adequate ISR or BDA. We marked the area and route as Russian claimed.
Kursk 4/n
We pulled back the Russian claimed advance to Shagarovo after geolocating WarGonzo's Seymon "three-toed" Pegov larping north of Bolshoe Soldatskoe at a B-21 Grad MLRS.
Kursk 5/n
Russian sources are in disagreement on the status of Marynovka. It's occupied. Ukrainian forces were defeated. It's partially occupied. There's been no evidence of Ukrainian troops in Martynovka. We split the difference and put a small salient in the southern part
Kursk 6/n
Ukrainian forces were visually confirmed in Makhnovka, and multiple Russian sources report that the settlement is under full Ukrainian control. Map updated.
Kursk 7/n
Several geolocations of Ukrainian forces south of Oleshnya, Melovoi, and Kurilovka. We are now confident the area west of the Psel River to the Russian-Ukrainian border is under Ukrainian control.
Russians claim, without evidence, Plekhovo is Ukrainian occupied.
Kursk 8/n
Russians claim, without evidence, fighting is ongoing in Kucherov. Russians also claim, without evidence, that Ukraine has occupied Giri, where the Russian Railways Psel Train Station is located.
Russian government ordered Belitsa evacuated.
Marked Russian claimed.
Kursk 9/n
Russians claim that Tetkino was heavily shelled and that communications and cellular infrastructure were destroyed.
If it's true, it's going to be hard to verify because communications and cell service are allegedly knocked out.
Kursk 10/n
Our resources and channels:
09 August 2024 Russia-Ukraine War Report Podcast (produced in Kyiv)
Russia has lost its ability to project hard power across the world because of its almost 12-year-long war of aggression against Ukraine.
Since September 2022, Russia's power has continued to erode.
A 🧵on Russia's failures.
1/8
September 2022: Armenia makes a CSTO Article IV request for mutual defense after Azerbaijan attacks, which Russia denies. Armenia has ended funding and participation in the CSTO, stabilized relations with Azerbaijan, remains in CSTO in name only, and recently called for the withdrawal of a small contingent of Russian forces still in the country.
2/8
November 2024: Uprising in Syria to depose dictator Bashir al-Assad - Assad asks Russia for ammunition, but all he gets is a ride, regime collapses, Russia withdraws forces and equipment, loses access to Khmeimim Air Base, and has military and commercial contracts at the vital Tartus Naval Base suspended. Moscow loses its ability to project power into the Mediterranean.
Last year, I wrote an analysis of Trump vs. Putin. I concluded there were two absolutes for both men.
1) Both hate hearing "no."
2) Both hate disloyalty.
When I wrote that analysis, I predicted they were on a collision course due to their egos and motivations.
1/16
As spring turned into summer, my hope faded as Trump repeatedly gave Putin "two weeks" despite it being painfully obvious that Witkoff was not the right guy to speak on behalf of the White House, and Putin was stringing Trump along.
2/16
There were flashes of improvement following the disastrous White House meeting on February 28. Trump and Zelenskyy meeting at the Vatican on April 26. The White House seeing through Putin's cynical "ceasefire" offer for Moscow's Victory Day Parade. Anger at the Palm Sunday attack on Sumy.
With Zapad-2025 just 3 days away, it would be foolish to dismiss tonight's airspace violations into Poland as "accidental" and not representing a threat.
This is not to say that Russia is planning to attack Poland using Zapad-2025 as a cover.
Military doctrine 101 teaches that a provocation this close to the start of major wargames on a nation's border should be viewed as a significant threat, and appropriate preventative measures should be taken.
1/9
It is extremely alarming that full ground stops were issued at Lublin and Rzeszów airports, as both are major logistics hubs for military aid into Ukraine. Rzeszów is also a major U.S. logistics hub for Eastern Europe. This is in addition to the ground stops at Warsaw and Modlin.
2/9
Tonight represents the sixth time Polish airspace has been violated since 20 August, with a clear pattern of escalation.
The incident, which some U.S. and European officials are openly calling an "act of war," comes less than a month after autocrat Vladimir Putin visited President Donald Trump in Alaska, claiming to seek peace.
3/9
Apparently, who feeds America needs to be explained to people. There is nuance.
1/20
Not all undocumented workers are exploited by their employers and paid slave wages. Many are paid a fair and legal wage. Some workers commit the crime of using the social security numbers of dead people and other individuals. Some of those workers are even assisted by their employers.
2/20
Legally documented workers here on visas with conditional social security numbers for work are treated like their citizen peers. Additionally, they are here legally, with a work permit.
It will cost Russia as much, if not more, to service the bonds currently being sold versus what the bonds are raising for the government in the short term.
Breaking the Russian economy is the path to peace.
As of July 11, the Kremlin was running a deficit of over 5 trillion rubles, almost double the available funds remaining in the wealth fund. April's tax receipts did little to improve the situation. This is a ticking bomb on a short fuse.
2/21
The Kremlin has been forced to nationalize industries, claim questionable wealth from oligarchs using even more questionable reasons, and continue to force companies to convert their foreign currency deposit accounts into rubles to prop up the currency.