Kursk Offensive Day 5 Update 10 AUG 2024 16:45 PDT
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Breach: 58.9 km
Depth: up to 28.0 km
Ukraine control: 536 sq km (high confidence🟧)
Gray area: another 320.7 sq km (🟨)
Total area: 856.7 sq km
🏁= Ukrainian presence visually confirmed
1/n
Russian sources claim, without evidence, that Ukrainian forces occupied Krasnooktyabrskoe and reached the eastern edge of Korenevo. No change at Korenevo. Russian claim extended from Snagost to Krasnooktyabrskoe.
Kursk 2/n
There was a small argument on the team that Russian info about fighting in Viktorovka was both the one by Mala Loknya and near Uspenovka - info was getting conflated. (e.g. Myrne vs Myrne)
We did not adjust the map, but the area by Uspenovka is lit up on NASA FIRMS.
Kursk 3/n
Russian claimed Iskander-M missile strike on Ukrainian position west of Semenovka. In our assessment, Ukrainian forces traveled on side roads from Zelenyi Shlyakh.
Russian video did not provide adequate ISR or BDA. We marked the area and route as Russian claimed.
Kursk 4/n
We pulled back the Russian claimed advance to Shagarovo after geolocating WarGonzo's Seymon "three-toed" Pegov larping north of Bolshoe Soldatskoe at a B-21 Grad MLRS.
Kursk 5/n
Russian sources are in disagreement on the status of Marynovka. It's occupied. Ukrainian forces were defeated. It's partially occupied. There's been no evidence of Ukrainian troops in Martynovka. We split the difference and put a small salient in the southern part
Kursk 6/n
Ukrainian forces were visually confirmed in Makhnovka, and multiple Russian sources report that the settlement is under full Ukrainian control. Map updated.
Kursk 7/n
Several geolocations of Ukrainian forces south of Oleshnya, Melovoi, and Kurilovka. We are now confident the area west of the Psel River to the Russian-Ukrainian border is under Ukrainian control.
Russians claim, without evidence, Plekhovo is Ukrainian occupied.
Kursk 8/n
Russians claim, without evidence, fighting is ongoing in Kucherov. Russians also claim, without evidence, that Ukraine has occupied Giri, where the Russian Railways Psel Train Station is located.
Russian government ordered Belitsa evacuated.
Marked Russian claimed.
Kursk 9/n
Russians claim that Tetkino was heavily shelled and that communications and cellular infrastructure were destroyed.
If it's true, it's going to be hard to verify because communications and cell service are allegedly knocked out.
Kursk 10/n
Our resources and channels:
09 August 2024 Russia-Ukraine War Report Podcast (produced in Kyiv)
Correct, and @AndrewPerpetua's tweet yesterday about visually confirmed Russian daily casualties vs. the number of attacks supports our February 26 analysis that Russia's combat potential has peaked and is entering a slow decline.
Neither combatant can do anything "big," but Ukraine has been forced to think outside the box (Operation Spiderweb).
2/n
Barring some unforseen event (CBRN use, a major screw up by one of the combatants enabling a massive Kharkiv Counteroffensive sized breakthrough) the days of measuring daily gains in multiple kilometers is over.
3/n
Are They Federal Agents or Federally Appointed Goon Squads
Equipment, training, and tactics used in Newark and Worcester raise serious questions about who has been empowered by the federal government to enforce immigration law.
🧵
1/15
The video showing the arrest of Newark Mayor Ras Baraka is only 72 seconds long, but it raises many questions about who is enforcing the law.
Baraka has since been released, and new videos show that Congresspersons didn't "storm" Delaney Hall, and were granted peaceful access. This video happens outside of the Delaney perimeter.
2/15
At the start of the video, Mayor Ras Baraka is being held by an unknown individual not wearing a federally designated DHS/ICE uniform. The man behind him (blue jacket, American flag) has been identified as a Department of Homeland Security Investigations officer and the man who signed the arrest papers for Baraka.
Most of Russia's territorial gains were in the Toretsk-Niu York area of operation, capturing a handful of smaller settlements and villages and advancing using treelines into some fields.
203 casualties per sq km is brutal.
It's worth noting that Russia lost territory south and southwest of Pokrovsk, and we maintain that the area around Sribne is a giant gray area. Russian forces have not been observed west of the village since 10-12 April, and anything that was geolocated was obliterated.
It also appears that Ukrainian forces have finally stabilized new defensive lines in the Vremivka Ledge (Velyka Novosilka) area.
1/5
Coming into May, the areas that concern us the most include:
1️⃣The Russian bridgehead over the Oskil River north of Kupiansk - we maintain this should have been dealt with in February
2️⃣The Russian advance west of Terny/Yampolivka in the direction of Lyman and/or Borova
3️⃣Russia's reprioritization of capturing Kostiantynivka
2/5
In our assessment, the announced evacuation of families with children from several villages in the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast is more likely related to artillery and drone attacks and airstrikes.
Russian logistics in the Solone salient are FUBAR due to Ukrainian drones. We don't see a large-scale attack at Udachne and a Russian push to the west. Almost everything Russia is moving north of the Solona River is by foot, using the treelines and gullies.
The Port of Seattle shows a tariff-created consumer Armageddon coming?!?!
Not so fast, because the truth lies in the middle, and part of the story is being misrepresented.
1/6
You've probably seen this picture as proof that the Port of Seattle has no ships or containers left. Trucking has stopped, and the last ship from China arrived today.
This is Terminal 46, the closest to the Coleman Dock Ferry Terminal.
2/6
And the cranes were shut down in 2019 because they are outdated and don't have enough load capacity.
By the summer of 2023, the cargo containers at Terminal 46 were gone, and the 88-acre facility is now used to store new cars.
Since mid-March, Russia has carried out numerous multi-company and battalion-size daylight zerg rushes using cobbled-together Russian mechanized infantry formations. These attacks have not resulted in anything more than marginal gains. Repeated attacks by small groups of light infantry continue to be far more successful.
1/19
For the mechanized assaults, most don't even make it to the line of conflict, and what little does get past rarely consolidates any gains. In April, we noted two cases where not only did large mechanized assaults fail, but Russian forces ended up losing positions.
2/19
As soon as the localized Russian offensive goes sideways, light infantry and dismounts have no NCO corps to guide them. Videos show a lot of panic. Some run for cover in the treelines while others just rush across open fields. But there is no coordination. Drones pick them off. There is almost no close combat with small arms because they never reach the Ukrainian FLOT.
Israeli forces, police, national guard, internal security, Mossad, and the IDF are internationally known for their, shall we say, low tolerance.
Thousands arrested and held without charges for up to 5 months on sometimes questionable terrorist charges, a long list of accusations of human rights abuses.
Please don't mistake me for a pro-Palestinian. I'm anything but, and I am still embittered by the number of, ehem, "allies," that abandoned me on 8 October 2023 simply because they knew I am Jewish. No other reason. No, "hey tell me your thoughts on," just outright ended what I thought were friendships.
Sorry, I digressed. What's the cautionary tale?
1/10
In 2017, Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu was charged with corruption, and he has done everything in his power to drag out that trial while working to gut the power of the judicial branch.
Wait, this sounds familiar.
In 2023, Netanyahu and his far-right supporters were pushing to change the Israeli Constitution to raise the legal standard for Supreme Court decisions, which would essentially gut the court.
2/10
Israelis responded furiously to what they saw as a slide into authoritarianism and Netanyahu's attempt to avoid prosecution altogether.
In the summer of 2023, there were massive daily protests across Israel and general strikes, and something funny started to happen.