Kursk Offensive Day 5 Update 10 AUG 2024 16:45 PDT
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Breach: 58.9 km
Depth: up to 28.0 km
Ukraine control: 536 sq km (high confidence🟧)
Gray area: another 320.7 sq km (🟨)
Total area: 856.7 sq km
🏁= Ukrainian presence visually confirmed
1/n
Russian sources claim, without evidence, that Ukrainian forces occupied Krasnooktyabrskoe and reached the eastern edge of Korenevo. No change at Korenevo. Russian claim extended from Snagost to Krasnooktyabrskoe.
Kursk 2/n
There was a small argument on the team that Russian info about fighting in Viktorovka was both the one by Mala Loknya and near Uspenovka - info was getting conflated. (e.g. Myrne vs Myrne)
We did not adjust the map, but the area by Uspenovka is lit up on NASA FIRMS.
Kursk 3/n
Russian claimed Iskander-M missile strike on Ukrainian position west of Semenovka. In our assessment, Ukrainian forces traveled on side roads from Zelenyi Shlyakh.
Russian video did not provide adequate ISR or BDA. We marked the area and route as Russian claimed.
Kursk 4/n
We pulled back the Russian claimed advance to Shagarovo after geolocating WarGonzo's Seymon "three-toed" Pegov larping north of Bolshoe Soldatskoe at a B-21 Grad MLRS.
Kursk 5/n
Russian sources are in disagreement on the status of Marynovka. It's occupied. Ukrainian forces were defeated. It's partially occupied. There's been no evidence of Ukrainian troops in Martynovka. We split the difference and put a small salient in the southern part
Kursk 6/n
Ukrainian forces were visually confirmed in Makhnovka, and multiple Russian sources report that the settlement is under full Ukrainian control. Map updated.
Kursk 7/n
Several geolocations of Ukrainian forces south of Oleshnya, Melovoi, and Kurilovka. We are now confident the area west of the Psel River to the Russian-Ukrainian border is under Ukrainian control.
Russians claim, without evidence, Plekhovo is Ukrainian occupied.
Kursk 8/n
Russians claim, without evidence, fighting is ongoing in Kucherov. Russians also claim, without evidence, that Ukraine has occupied Giri, where the Russian Railways Psel Train Station is located.
Russian government ordered Belitsa evacuated.
Marked Russian claimed.
Kursk 9/n
Russians claim that Tetkino was heavily shelled and that communications and cellular infrastructure were destroyed.
If it's true, it's going to be hard to verify because communications and cell service are allegedly knocked out.
Kursk 10/n
Our resources and channels:
09 August 2024 Russia-Ukraine War Report Podcast (produced in Kyiv)
Russian sources insist fighting is ongoing in Tetkino. Added a small Russian claimed area
Russian sources claim, without evidence, that Gordeevka is occupied. We moved Viktorovka and Gordeevka to Russian claimed (see yesterday's thread about Viktorovka)
Kursk Offensive Day 4 🧵
Update: 09 AUG 2024 13:15 PDT
Yellow Zone is Russian-claimed
Breach: 56.8 km
Depth: up to 21.2 sq km
Ukraine control: 528.4 sq km (moderate confidence)
Gray area: another 246 sq km
Total area: 776.4 sq km
🏁= Ukrainian presence visually confirmed
1/n
We noticed that the media is quoting our work (with attribution). Thank you, and hello. There is more about us at the end of the thread.
We pulled back the Ukrainian advance in the direction of Snagost because, after multiple Russian claims, there's no evidence.
2/n
Ukrainian forces announced the capture of Sudzha and are visually confirmed in the village of Dmitriukov, 4.82 km from where Ukrainian troops made their capture claim at the Gazprom offices in Sudzha
Ukrainian forces also confirmed in southern Goncharovka
My wife was born, went to university, and started her career in a country where the government collapsed.
Years ago I asked her, what were the warning signs? What was going on in the months, weeks, and days before the government failed?
1/12
Her answer stunned me.
"Nothing."
You ate dinner, cleaned up, went to bed, woke up in the morning, and the news tells you the government failed.
No warning signs.
Nothing.
It just happened.
Yes, the news talked about the problems before, but collapse? Never.
2/12
In the immediate days that follow, you wake up, get dressed, make your tea, eat some bread and sausage, and get on the bus to go to work - or walk if it is a nicer day.
People talk about what's happening, but life goes on.
The attempt to add amendments to HR 8035 exposed the pro-Putin Fifth Column in Congress. 12 congresspersons submitted 24 amendments that were based on or were pure Kremlin propaganda.
Say hello to the US House of Representatives Fifth Column.
🧵1/14
Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia led with 10 of the 24. She touched on almost every Kremlin talking point and submitted at least 13 additional amendments.
Nazis, Christian persecution, biolabs which not even the Kremlin pushes anymore, Transcarpatha, Zelenskyy legitimacy
2/14
Coming in second place was Andy Ogles, a Republican from Tennessee. Ogles submitted 3 amendments based on pure Russian propaganda, Nazis, and more Nazis, and fed the narrative that the US is providing direct military support in amendments 2, 3, & 73
The @ICRC is the keeper of International Humanitarian Law (IHL) and is assigned by the Geneva Conventions as the international watchdog. IHL is published online, with the doctrine of dozens of miliaries and previous case law. Here is the link.
Rule 8 of IHL defines a military target. The original 1907 language was clear, but the Geneva Conventions added ambiguity by changing "military works" to "military objective" without definition.
The amount of disinformation circulating on TikTok about Israel-Hamas is astounding.
We're also seeing clear signs of paid disinformation campaigns that started between October 15 and 20 that are well-funded and sophisticated.
A very short 🧵
1/8
Troll farms and "oppositional marketing firms" will hack, create and store, and buy real social media accounts to use for their purposes. Yes, there is a secondary market for people who decide they don't want their Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, etc., and sell them.
2/8
With election and COVID disinformation, TikTok was too new of a platform for this tactic. Not anymore.
We're seeing a growing number of accounts that went dormant in 2020-2021, with totally new creators talking only about Israel-Palestine, a subject not previously covered.
3/8