A long thread about the two F-16's ferried from Tuscon to Rzeszow, and what the rest of Ukraine's Antonov 124 fleet was doing at the end of last month. The airframe in this picture is #50801B, the "hero" aircraft. Full information about the fleet's activities in this 🧵👇 1/18
The Ukranian An-124 fleet was saved from the same fate as Mryia. Most were out of the country when the invasion started, and were squirreled away for a few months before returning to duty and helping with the war effort. The fleet is four strong. All dates are based on GMT 2/18
For simplicity, they are A, B (our hero flight), C and D. Each An-124 has a roll on/off rear platform, as well as a hinged nose, allowing very large cargo space (more than a C5A). The airframe can be lowered on its landing gear as well to facilitate loading and unloading. 3/18
On July 22, only one of the fleet, C, was working. It arrived in Singapore. For the next five days, all four would coordinate to bring two F-16s and, in all likelihood, the necessary support equipment from the US to Poland. Each can carry 150 tons of cargo. 4/18
On July 23, A and B were stationed at their home base in Leizpig. A and B both crossed the Atlantic light on a single full tank. A landed in Fairbanks, Alaska. B landed in Tuscon, where photos have since been distributed of the F-16's being loaded. 5/18
C traveled from Singapore to the UAE - unknown if she was heavy or light. D was already in the USA, having been on the ground in Mobile, Alabama for a few days. It flew from Mobile to Ft. Worth. So three were in the states, and one was in the middle east. 6/18
Early on the 24th (GMT), C traveled from UAE to Leipzig, and then from Leipzig to Portsmouth, NH. While it was en route to NH, A left Fairbanks for Montreal, now heavy. Our hero B, loaded with two F-16's, wings and tail fins separate, followed to Montreal as well. 7/18
Meanwhile, D travelled from Ft. Worth to Portsmouth NH. A&B in Montreal, C&D in New Hampshire. This was the only date I could find when all four airframes were, at times, in the U.S.A. All four spent the night on the east coast of North America. 8/18
On the 25th (GMT), A departed Montreal and landed in Leipzig. The F-16s on B were delivered straight to Rzeszow. C remained in Portsmouth for the day. D took a circuitous route, first to Evenes in Norway, then proceeding to Leipzig. 9/18
On the 26th (GMT) A made trips between Leipzig, Leige Niersey, and Rzeszow, returning to Leipzig. Hero flight B returned from Rzeszow to Leipzig after dropping off the F-16s. C finally left New Hampshire, destination Rzeszow. D remained in Leipzig the day. 10/18
On the 27th and 28th, the entire fleet was at rest. Over the next several days, there was at least one more related flight. On the 31st, C flew light from Leipzig to Anchorage, departed on the 1st and came back heavy to Leipzig on the 2nd. 11/18
On the 1st, our hero B flew from Leipzig to Pease Air National Guard base, continuing on the 2nd to Ciudad Juarez (that's kind of... odd), on the 3rd to Dulles in DC, and returned to Leipzig on the 4th of August. 12/18
The An-124 can only fit two disassembled F-16s in its hold (yes, I did the maths). Which is one reason that, to date, we have only seen two F-16s in any photos from Ukraine. This is likely a PR move to show U.S. (ahem) "leadership" in arming Ukraine. 13/18
Additionally, as noted by people and periodicals, there seems to have been some interesting kit added to these older F-16s, including an advanced pod and newer IFF array. Its expected that the aircraft from Netherlands and other donor countries will need the same mods. 14/18
Although B, #50801B, brought the F-16s, the other three likely brought everything from armaments to maintenance equipment to spare parts, perhaps even an engine or two to cannibalize. An-124's are not inexpensive to fly, given their laden weight and fuel consumption. 15/18
In spite of that, it was probably less expensive for Ukraine to transport the first two F-16s and its supplies than if the US did a coronet flight across the Atlantic with at least two additional C-5A or three C-17s, based on carriage and internal dimensions of the An-124. 16/18
I expect that some of the equipment offloaded at Leipzig was shuttled to Rzeszow by smaller aircraft. Regardless, Ukraine now has two F-16s with an assortment of newer arms at its disposal. This big effort is not needed for F-16s already in Europe, as there is AAR present. 17/18
The Fleet will likely be utilized again when the US sends the next two refurbished aircraft over. But until then, when you hear about the US F-16s in Ukraine, take a moment to thank their An-124 fleet's crew for helping to make it happen in one big push. 18/18 END
Addendum: it was mentioned that that 4 F-16s had previously been carried in an An-124. While true, the difference is expediency. Four can be transported if broken down further to fit within the hold. These F-16’s were refurbished with some newer kit, and the mission… 19/+
…had the F-16s in Ukraine within days. I’m no fighter jet mechanic, but I expect they shipped with the airframes and avionics intact to preserve integrity for rapid reassembly. I expect the tail fins were removed, as were the wings at the strakes, to fit across the hold.
If you would like to follow the An-124 fleet, @thebaldgeek was inspired by this work to put up a tracker just for the fleet. It can be found at . (UA AN-124 button) It appears that 3 of them are in North America today!tbg.airframes.io/dashboard/trac…
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It was an active morning along the Romanian/Ukraine border and Black Sea. This 🧵discusses the activity on this mission. Of ads-b visible aircraft was an Artemis, two RC-135s, a P-8, three AAR, and a mystery French fighter in the Black Sea. Details 👇visualization. 1/6
A closer visualization of the activities around the Delta Danube and Romanian coastline. 2/6
AAR assets in the region:
A332 #3B756A/FAF4091, early departure from France
KC-135 #AE058B, early departure from Poland to track with JAKE17
UK A332 #43C6F3/RRR9954+KAYAK31
ISTAR:
US RC-135 #AE01C9/JAKE 17
US Artemis #A60693/BRIO68
RAF RC-135 #43C39C/RRR7218
US P-8 #AE6851
Mysterious French Fighter:
#3B7582/FAF
Either two spoofed pings, or this was the escort for the Black Sea incursion. It was only seen twice on ADS-B, starting in central BS 3/6
Kaliningrad in the spotllight today!! Did not have the time to unpack NATO ISR into a timeline earlier. Apologies. Timeline/plots in this 🧵
BRIO-fencing. Both privately owned sister ISR platforms are leased by LASAI to the 🇺🇸. The newer BRIO66 departed Latvia 05:50 UTC, RTB 13:30 UTC, tasked with northern KGD and Baltic border. BRIO68 departed Constanta 09:20 UTC, RTB 15:55, along the eastern bloc border and N KGD
🇸🇪 AEW Saab 340 C604 departed Ronneby 11:15 UTC, assumed a defensive station between KGD and Sweden over the Baltic sea, returning to Malmen 15:15 UTC
JSLINT "While I was sleeping" version. This will be a detailed thread based on the last 24-hour observable ISR traffic. Here is the master map, broken down in this thread. This is my punishment for actually getting sleep. #OSINT#flightpaths
Before I slept, HOMER21 and BRIO68 were traversing the southern border corridor. HOMER may have been diverted to Constanta around 06:00Z when a Typhoon (likely QFR) sortied into that area. Its ISR 'racetrack' is shortened. As BRIO was already on task, this is unusual.
At some point, RAVEN17, A Dassault Falcon with ECM (jamming) capability availed itself to the southern corridor. It did not show up on FR24, just ads-bx. Speculation: its jamming capacity obscures its actual path, so while ECM is on the ability to triangulate location suffers.
ISR resources. Does not include Lithuanian YANK01, YANK02 (standard paths), BRIO68 (standard southern ISR corridor), the P3 AA33 ISR path, or the P8. Please refer to earlier posts for info. Ads-b reception gaps in SE Romania are primary cause of inaccurate maps.
Transport routes. Of note was the Polish convoy to Latvia. Please refer to earlier posts for info. Ads-b reception gaps in SE Romania are primary cause of inaccurate maps in that region.
This yank is hoping to turn in early and be up as dawn breaks in Eastern Europe. Expecting a busy morning after a relatively quiet day in the air. Now, if my neighbors would cooperate... anyone got a spare Neptune? Todays maps in thread; all are last-leg only. #OSINT#flightpaths
AAR, last leg only. Note flights along the southern Moldova/Romanian border are in an area with limited open-source ads-b reception, so AAR paths in that region tend to obscure.
Cargo/Transports, last leg only. Note flights along the southern Moldova/Romanian border are in an area with limited open-source ads-b reception, so AAR paths in that region tend to obscure.