The 5th day of the Kursk Incursion According to open sources
Tactical Analysis
Thread🧵
August 10th or Day 5 of the operation was a relatively quite day where both sides managed to achieve some tactical gains
Overnight a Ukrainian element of the 80th Air assault brigade conducted a raid towards Anastasevka through the countryside, after being struck the group apparently retreated.
Meanwhile on the eastern flank the Russians continued to bring up more reserves including units from Kharkiv.
The eastern front by now has started to become more static as both sides consolidate.
The Russians for August 10th put their focus on the Isolated Ukrainian position at Martynovka aiming to open the R200 highway.
Indications show that the Ukrainians in the early morning tried to take back lost positions near Kruglik and most likely succeeding in dislodging them.
Soon after the Russian Marine units most likely of the 155th Brigade launched a series of counter attacks onto the Ukrainian positions.
The differences from yesterdays counter attacks is the avenue of attack and the lack of heavy equipment which worked out to their favor as the Ukrainians were not able to use tank and mortar support at such distances.
The first Russian assault unit (which could have acted as a reconnaissance element) was repelled in the morning without much hustle as the Ukrainians were pretty well dug into the village.
A couple hours later the Russians assaulted the village focusing on the southern height, this time more successfully and by the evening the Ukrainian troops would be forced to withdraw north and out of the village
Inside Sudzha both sides further consolidated, the Ukrainians gained more control over Central Sudzha and secured the localities to the south by crossing the Suzhda Psel river with Svoboda Rusiya elements.
In the morning the village of Plekhovo was assaulted by Svoboda Rusiya elements, the attempt was unsuccessful but later in the day the Ukrainians would assault it again more successfully.
In kerenevo inactivity persists, only rotations and regrouping has been observed during Day 5
I have heard the news of the "Breakthrough" in Belitsa but I haven't received any information so I'm not going to comment on it today.
Thanks for reading.
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The first 3 days of the Ukrainian offensive into Kursk oblast, Case study.
I should mention the study is free for anyone on my Substacks and nobody has been asked to give money to me.
There are more details about it in the Thread🧵 lovelylad.substack.com/p/the-ukrainia…
The study took up around 8 months and 130 pages to complete.
10s if not more than 100 Ukrainian soldiers and officers who partook in the operation gave testimonies or agreed to interviews for the study. Other than that 100s of Russian POW interviews were analyzed.
Additionally the study used high res satellite imagery and 1000s of open source videos and images many of which I had to geolocate personally.
In the study many people from the community helped to throw a couple vital names out
A few thoughts about the "2nd Kursk Offensive" analyzing the operation through publicly available sources.
Thread🧵
This operation is obviously inspired by the 1st offensive in August and it tried to recreate its successful breach using similar tactics.
Starting with the deployment of EW jammers near the frontlines to disturb communications with the Russian defensive positions and the employment of certain UAV systems.
The Ukrainian Logistical and Engineering assets, their limitations and capabilities in Kursk
Logistical Analysis
Thread🧵
Logistics are a major factor in all operations and always have an effect in the outcome of an operation.
Certain units have been independently confirmed to be deployed but there are other units that work in the rear that wouldn't get many MIAs but still would most definitely be deployed in support of the Operation.
Why the Russian defense in Kursk Failed.
A talk about Conscripts, Defensive Works, readiness, minefields and more.
Thread🧵
On august 6th two Ukrainian Battalions crossed the border with practically no resistance, where was the Russian defense and what was it doing.
The FSB's Department of the Border Protection office "Suzhda" was in charge of protecting the border in that sector and on paper they had a very good defensive network to work with.
There won't be daily threads anymore, people who are following the situation can get what I provide pretty easily now that most of the chaos is gone but I do have some comments about the last couple days.
Quick Thread🧵
Over the last couple days reinforcements have moved into the Suzhda sector, most units of which have not been identified.
We only know that the subgroup of the 80th air assault is bigger including elements from the 82nd, 80th, 95th and 46th brigades.
The 82nd Brigade itself has been very quite and we believe the 24th Aidar Battalion has taken over most its operations.
Still other units have been spotted with Varta MRAPs, T72AVs, Otokar Cobras, M113s etc
We currently have no idea what they could be.
The 7th day(August 12th) of the Operation
Tactical Analysis
Thread🧵
Addressing some ORBAT changes first, we believe the 82nd has not been involved in fighting since Day 5
Instead the 24th Aidar Battalion is believed to have conducted the operation towards Korenevo but for now we'll leave it on the map until further information comes out.
As it's customary we need to start from Martynovka which was secured by the Ukrainians the previous day.
On day 7 the Russian 810th Marine brigade was completely dislodged from the area including the village of Mykhailovka essentially ending the battle for Martynovka.