Thread by @emilkastehelmi

Kursk offensive, situational update:

The operation has been ongoing for a almost a week. During the last days, Ukraine has not made very significant progress, but they have started solidifying their positions in the newly captured areas.

1/

As expected, it took Russia a few days to transfer units to the area, and they will likely continue to do so in the coming days. With their current forces, the Russians have managed to prevent any more serious breakthroughs from happening. Local counterattacks have started. 2/

Russians are likely still holding some central and eastern parts of Sudzha, while the Ukrainians are continuing operations in the area. In Martynovka, Russians counterattacked and likely pushed Ukrainians out of the village. Reportedly Ukrainians are trying to get it back. 3/

In the direction of Korenevo, Ukrainains have not been able to enter the city, at least not with a large force. There are some uncertainities in the zones of control especially on the western and northern flanks of the area of operations. 4/

Russia still doesn't have a solid control of the frontline or the state border. For example, yesterday evening, multiple Russian channels reported Ukrainians operating deep in the direction of Belitsa. Sabotage and reconnaissance groups still seem to get through elsewhere too. 5/

The general situation of the Kursk offensive doesn't look particularly good. After a week of fighting, neither Korenevo or Sudzha are fully in Ukrainian control, and the Russians have also likely blocked the northern direction. This isn't a very desirable situation. 6/

However, for Ukraine, the situation isn’t particularly bad either. They are still holding onto most of the gained ground despite Russian counterattacks. Even with more Russian troops in the general area, Ukraine still holds the initiative. 7/

After more Russian reinforcements arrive, operational success is increasingly difficult to achieve, and there’s less room for the element of surprise. Committing more troops also increases risks, especially as the situation in eastern Ukraine is still difficult. 8/

There have been Russian rumours about Ukraine soon launching an attack either towards Rylsk or Glushkovo. They could achieve some success there, but there would be a limited effect to the general situation. The most valuable places in the Kursk oblast would still be safe. 9/

The main question is:

What can Ukraine achieve, if it spends more manpower and equipment to take more border villages in the Kursk direction? There’s a limited amount of benefit to be gained from simply controlling more land. 10/

A larger land area would, of course, have more weight in possible peace negotiations in the future. Even if Ukraine were to reach the Rylsk-Korenevo-Sudzha line, it would likely still be less valuable than many of the territories currently occupied by Russia in Ukraine. 11/

Some have argued that expanding the zone of control could force the Russians to shift their focus to Kursk at the expense of other directions, because of political reasons. I’m not entirely convinced the Russians will do this, as there are other possible scenarios too. 12/

It’s possible that the Russians would try to freeze the front and let Ukraine stay in the occupied area, assuming that the issue of a few dozen towns and villages can be solved in future negotiations, as the priority is to achieve the set political goals inside Ukraine. 13/

In this situation, some additional Ukrainian forces would be tied to guard and hold an expanded secondary direction, while the fight in Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk and Kharkiv would continue just as intensively. 14/

The Kursk offensive is increasingly beginning to look like a medium risk – medium reward operation. There’s no massive game-changing objectives to be achieved, but there’s also no likely catastrophes on the horizon. 15/

The best case scenario for Ukraine would probably be the following:

Russia decides it’s not acceptable to leave any areas to Ukrainian hands, and will divert significant resources even from the most critical places and to get every square kilometre back, despite the losses. 16/

This would severely attrit the Russians, ease the pressure in other directions, and maybe even make it possible for Ukrainians to improve the tactical situation locally in the east. However, as usual, the reality will most likely set somewhere in between. 17/

Regardless of whether the Ukrainians continue their advance, they have proved that occupation of relatively large areas is no longer a privilege of Russia. The war is now even more concretely a war on Russian soil as well, and Russia must take this into account in many ways. 18/

Our team at @Black_BirdGroup continues to follow the situation with multiple daily updates. It's been an intensive week! 19/19

Link to our interactive map:

scribblemaps.com/maps/view/The-…