Sergej Sumlenny, LL.M Profile picture
Aug 11, 2024 11 tweets 4 min read Read on X
THREAD Putin has removed Army's Gerasimov from command over Kursk operation, installed FSB's Portnikov. This is great. Let me explain:
1) Russian system of power always set on the secret police over the Army. The Secret Police was over-financed over-empowered for centuries /1
1.1) In 16th century, Moscovy's tyrant Ivan the Terrible has created Moscovy's first Secret Police: "Oprichnina" (literally: the special ones), letting them arrest, torture, kill, rape any opposition, and seize their property. Ivan's opponents were destroyed. But in 1570... /2 Image
1.2) ...Ivan the Terrible sent the Oprichnikis against free people of Revel (Tallinn), in a war of conquest. The Oprichnikis were beaten. In 1571, the Oprichnikis were called to fight back Tatar Devlet-Girei khan. They have not even come to the battle (see Kadyrovtsy today) /3 Image
2) Still, Moscow continued providing any secret police with privilege. Moscow Tsars feared local opposition more than a foreign threat, so a well-funded secret police was of a higher value, while army wasn't trusted. In 1803, Emperor Nikolai I founded a "secret police regiment"/4 Image
2.1) Which was practically a top-armed army-style unit of the "His Emperor Majesties Own Chancellory's 3rd dept.", or a Russian Gestapo. Of course, this regiment, lavishly funded, has never recorded any significant victory besides oppressing uprisings. It existed until 1861 /5 Image
3) Under Stalin, "The NKVD troops" were created (what was an oxymoron, as NKVD stays for "People's commissariat for internal affairs"), best armed, with personal loyalty to Stalin. Their best operations? Scorching Ukrainian, Lithuanian, Latvian, and Estonian towns after WWII. /6 Image
4) This played bad for the NKVD. After Stalin's death in 1953, Khrushchev organised a coup against NKVD-top Beria, and the Army, humiliated often enough by the NKVD, gladly took over Moscow and executed Beria. Watch "Death of Stalin" comedy (which is not a comedy) for this /7 Image
5) In early 2000s, it was FSB (Russia's modern secret police) which provided Putin with final pacification of Chechnya, what looks like an FSB's victory. But before the FSB was able to kidnap, torture, rape, execute Chechens, it was the Army which burnt Chechnya down. /8 Image
6) So now the FSB takes the task of repelling a foreign invasion, because the Army is not good enough for this (which is true). But what can the FSB do? They can only pacificate (with a lot of terror) already occupied territories. Good luck with that with your black SS uniforms. Image
You may support daily activities of the @EuroResilience and the Ukrainian cause by your regular donation: paypal.com/donate/?hosted…
And: The FSB will probably get Ukrainian uniforms and demonstratively execute local Russians, to create "evidence of Ukraine's brutality". This is what NKVD/MGB/KGB did in the West of Ukraine to undercut support for the Resistance, and later FSB did in Ichkeria. That's why FSB.

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More from @sumlenny

Apr 15
THREAD What we witness now from the White House, is a clear smearing campaign aimed not only at @ZelenskyyUa but on Ukraine at whole. Zelensky is being used as a target, but with a goal to weaken Ukraine in whole, and to strengthen Moscow. Let me explain: 👇 Image
President @ZelenskyyUa was verbally attacked by President Trump many times, with the following four main accusation lines:
a) Zelensky is ungrateful
b) Zelensky is corrupt
c) Zelensky is a dictator
d) Zelensky has started the war / is interested in war.
Nothing is true. 2/x👇
@ZelenskyyUa President Zelensky has thanked the U.S. people dozens of times for the help provided. "Corruption" is a typical russian lie, used also by russia-friendly voices, who claimed with no proves that Ukraine-delivered arms were "stolen". But let us address other accusations 3/x👇 Image
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Read 9 tweets
Apr 14
Some thoughts on recent russian missile attacks on Ukrainian cities
1) russia is facing a huge and growing problem with its offensive slowing down, unsustainably high losses, and even some Ukrainian counter-offensive in Pokrovsk region;
2) russia uses two tactics to counter it:👇
3) First, russia starts "negotiations". The goal is to slow Ukraine down, to limit Ukrainian striking freedom (ban Ukrainian strikes on the Black Sea navy, on russian oil refineries etc.), while accumulating military power;
4) Second, russia increases PsyOps against Ukraine. 👇
4.1) russia's missile strikes on Ukraine's cities are demonstratively brutal: ballistic missiles with cluster munition warheads aiming civilians' gatherings, incl. children playgrounds;
4.2) at the same time, russia spreads false info that they have targeted military personnel👇
Read 6 tweets
Mar 3
THREAD: Ok, let us have a sober look at the U.S. - Ukraine - Russia - EU constellation. First: the U.S. - Ukraine agreement was not necessary for Ukraine. It was not necessary for the U.S. as well. It was necessary only for Trump, therefore he is vulnerable. Let me explain. /1
The "agreement" didn't provide Ukraine with anything. It was aimed on payment for the U.S. from Ukraine (and practically allowed the U.S. to mine Ukrainian resources on Russia-occupied lands). Trump needed it to prove that he is a great dealer. But why did Ukraine need it? /2
The agreement did not foresee any U.S. military support, guarantees, even "commitments". Ukraine paid retrospective for what they have got for free. So for Ukraine, it was a pure cost factor, for Trump - pure profit factor. And he needed it asap. Therefore - he was vulnerable. /3
Read 8 tweets
Jan 26
In four weeks, Feb. 23rd, Germany will have preliminary elections. In this THREAD I will try to explain what it is about, who would probably win, where are bottlenecks, and what it means for the world and for Ukraine. /1 ⬇️ Image
First, we need to understand: German electoral system is designed to dilute votes. No job higher than a city mayor gets elected directly. The reason is the Nazi past: no politician may claim being elected by the PEOPLE. So people vote for parties, and they name politicians. /2⬇️
So people vote for parties, and parties need 50%+1 vote to name a head of a region, or a chancellor. Normally, no party gets over 50%, so a coalition is needed (on a federal level, conservatives from the CDU under Adenauer have got 50,2% in 1957, but still formed a coalition)/3⬇️ Image
Read 28 tweets
Jan 25
Yesterday in Davos, Germany's guru diplomat and Merkel's minion @ischinger made some absolutely crazy statements, effectively urging for occupation of Ukraine by BRICS countries (and promoted his wife's book in the beginning). In this THREAD I explain why this was terrible /1 ⬇️
Let us deconstruct Ischinger step by step. First, he claims Western peace troops in Ukraine must follow a rule "all in - all out". Who told you so? NATO countries supported Ukraine on their own all the time. Had we waited for Hungary and Scholz, 🇺🇦 would never get anything /2 ⬇️
Second. Ischinger claims, European NATO troops may not be sent, because they would automatically and never be able to fight without a presence of the U.S. troops. Hallo, Ischi, ever asked how Ukrainian troops fight quite successfully without the U.S. troops on the ground? /2 ⬇️
Read 10 tweets
Nov 22, 2024
A THREAD: Our 2024 #ChristmasDrones campaign is running! Why it is important, and how we at the @EuroResilience deliver donated goods directly to the frontline? Get insight from this THREAD (And a donation link: ) /1paypal.com/donate?campaig…
During our last donation campaign by @EuroResilience @BrennpunktUA and @frontlinekit, we have raised €277,000. For this money, we have produced hundreds of drones, and bought addition equipment for the drones units: off-the-shelf drones, cars, antennas, power stations. /2 Image
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@EuroResilience @BrennpunktUA @frontlinekit I personally traveled days through Ukraine, bringing equipment directly to the frontline. When you stay at the units, sleep in their premises, eat with soldiers, and escape Russian drones attacks, this creates bonds. Soldiers tell you what they REALLY need, and trust you. /3 Image
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Read 10 tweets

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