Large military maneuvers are now underway near a strategic ballistic missile base in Kermanshah, Iran. Israel is bracing for an Iranian attack. So why doesn’t it attack and destroy Iran's ballistic missiles? Why does Israel wait? 🧵 1/13
Two weeks ago, Israel planted a bomb under the bed of Hamas' leader Hanyia right next to the Presidential palace in the heart of Teheran. On the same day, Israel killed Hizballah’s chief of staff in Beirut, months after killing Iran’s General Zahedi in Damascus. 🧵 2/13
If Israel’s military is so precise, why doesn’t it locate and destroy Iran’s ballistic missiles? Israel’s Jets can certainly reach Iran. In July, Israel’s Fighter Jets struck the port of Hodeida, Yemen, 2000 kilometers away. Iran is only 1500 km away. 🧵 3/13
Many assume that Israel can use sophisticated “bunker busters” to try and destroy Iran’s missile sites. But even the largest conventional bombs may not be enough. 🧵 4/13
In northern Iran, the Elburz mountains scrape the sky with peaks reaching 5600 meters, higher than both the Rockies and the Alps. Iran’s Zagros mountains stretch 1500 kilometers from northwestern Iran all the way south towards the Persian Gulf. 🧵 5/13
This map of Iran’s known ballistic missile sites reveals that most of them lie under these mountains, where Iran has spent the last 30 years building fortified “missile cities.” 🧵 6/13
Many of Iran’s sites are over 100 meters underground. Even the United States' GBU-57 bomb, designed specifically for a doomsday scenario, can only penetrate up to 60 meters of mountain before it explodes. To destroy these sites, Israel and the US will need a better bomb. 🧵 7/13
But even if such a bomb exists, splitting a mountain is no simple feat. Changing geological densities within different layers of a mountain can shift the direction of even the most sophisticated bomb away from its intended target. 🧵 8/13
And if the bomb arrives, it still needs to destroy a fortified concrete facility. While Israel can try and destroy all of Iran's dozens of “missile cities,” the success of such an attempt is uncertain. 🧵 9/13
Launching such an attack would mean starting a full-scale frontal war with one of the most resource-rich countries in the world. Iran could likely still retaliate with its vast ballistic missile arsenal. 🧵 10/13
This also explains why last week, the US threatened to destroy Iran's economy, instead of threatening to destroy its nuclear and missile capabilities. Destroying Iran’s missiles is a much more difficult task to achieve, even for the US. 🧵 11/13
But within Iran’s natural strength lies a hidden weakness: thousands of kilometers of mountains across its borders also provide the perfect cover for smugglers and spies. This is why so much of Israel’s effort against Iran’s rise to power has been through sabotage. 🧵 12/13
Exploiting this weakness in topography, Israeli spies penetrate time and again into Iran, sabotaging key sites, assassinating nuclear scientists, and even stealing Iran's top secret documents. This recent assassination in Teheran is a clue to what is yet to come.🧵13/13
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At least six U.S. B-2 bombers are now stationed at Diego Garcia air base in the Indian Ocean. This is important because the B-2 is the only aircraft that can deliver the massive GBU-57, one of the only bombs that can destroy Iran’s nuclear sites at Natanz and Fordow.
🧵 1/6
Diego Garcia air base is over 2,000 miles from Iran, making it an ideal location — far enough to give the U.S. Navy time and space to defend its strategic B-2 bombers from Iranian missiles and drones, yet close enough for the B-2 to strike targets deep within Iran. 2/6
Carrying two GBU-57 bombs that weigh over 13 tons each, the B-2 has a range of over 4,500 miles. The nine KC-135 air refueling tankers also stationed at Diego Garcia give these stealth bombers the range to conduct bombing raids on Iran from any direction. 3/6
Last night, the Alawite minority in Syria revolted against Jolani's regime (HTS). Alawite generals organized a surprise assault, briefly taking the strategic port cities of Tartus and Latakia.
Jolani's regime is fighting to regain control.
🧵1/5
The Alawite territory is surrounded by mountains, accessible only through a few roads. Thousands of Jolani's fighters drove in to quell the rebellion, only to be ambushed by Alawite insurgents.
The Alawites killed dozens and captured 37 of Jolani's men. 2/5
By dawn, Jolani's regime (HTS) managed to regain control of these two cities, taking revenge against Alawite families associated with the revolt.
Alawite forces are still holding some of the territory. 3/5
Israel is now enforcing a siege on the Gaza Strip following Hamas' refusal to release the hostages. While existing food supplies could last for months, Israel can destroy Gaza's fuel depots.
Without fuel, Gaza will plunge into darkness.
Here's how this could unfold: 🧵1/4
To make matters worse for Gaza, the US has fast-tracked a $2 billion sale of 35,529 MK-84 bombs to Israel. One MK-84 bomb can destroy a building; 35,529 can level entire cities in the Gaza Strip. 2/4
An additional $295M shipment of D9 bulldozers has also been released. Israel uses these bulldozers to demolish buildings in Gaza that were rigged with explosives by Hamas. By bulldozing these structures, Israeli soldiers avoid walking into Hamas traps. 3/4
Israeli forces are preparing to advance toward Damascus, Syria, to defend the Druze suburb of Jaramana, currently under attack by the Syrian regime (HTS).
Druze reinforcements have arrived in Jaramana with support from the Israeli Air Force.
Here's how this could unfold: 1/4
Yesterday, clashes erupted between the Syrian regime, led by HTS, and Druze forces in Damascus. The Druze are a religious minority that has faced persecution in the past by HTS.
Israel has vowed to protect them.
2/4
Last week, Israel announced it will attack any HTS-affiliated forces that move south of Damascus. 3/4
Iran is now weeks away from enriching enough 90% Uranium-235 to build a nuclear weapon. It is developing warheads at the Parchin complex. If not stopped, Iran could conduct its first nuclear test in 2025.
Where are Iran’s nuclear facilities, and can Israel destroy them? 1/11
Iran sources uranium ore from the Saghand and Gchine mines. It then mills it into “yellowcake” powder — 99% Uranium-238 and ~1% Uranium-235. Only U-235 can sustain the chain reaction that causes a nuclear explosion. The uranium must be enriched. 2/11
Enrichment starts at the Isfahan facility, where uranium is converted into a gaseous form. From there, it is sent to Natanz and Fordow, where thousands of centrifuges spin at supersonic speeds, separating U-235 from U-238. With each rotation, Iran inches closer to the bomb. 3/11
Israel has now destroyed Syria's air defenses, dropping 1,800 bombs on over 500 targets in a few hours. This means Israel can use Syria’s airspace more freely, turning Syria into a springboard for attacking Iran. 🧵1/6
Syria used to possess the most densely concentrated array of air defense batteries in the world. Dozens of Russian-made SA-17, SA-22, SA-6, SA-8, and SA-5 batteries launched hundreds of missiles at Israeli fighter jets over the past decade, downing an Israeli F16I in 2018. 2/6
Generations of Israeli fighter pilots were raised memorizing the range of Syrian SA-5 missiles (180 miles) and studying the vulnerabilities of the MiG-29 (weak radar and a small fuel tank). No longer. The nemesis of the Israeli Air Force has been completely destroyed. 3/6