Last night, the Alawite minority in Syria revolted against Jolani's regime (HTS). Alawite generals organized a surprise assault, briefly taking the strategic port cities of Tartus and Latakia.

Jolani's regime is fighting to regain control.
🧵1/5 The Alawite territory is surrounded by mountains, accessible only through a few roads. Thousands of Jolani's fighters drove in to quell the rebellion, only to be ambushed by Alawite insurgents.

The Alawites killed dozens and captured 37 of Jolani's men. 2/5

Israel is now enforcing a siege on the Gaza Strip following Hamas' refusal to release the hostages. While existing food supplies could last for months, Israel can destroy Gaza's fuel depots.

Without fuel, Gaza will plunge into darkness.
Here's how this could unfold: 🧵1/4 To make matters worse for Gaza, the US has fast-tracked a $2 billion sale of 35,529 MK-84 bombs to Israel. One MK-84 bomb can destroy a building; 35,529 can level entire cities in the Gaza Strip. 2/4

Israeli forces are preparing to advance toward Damascus, Syria, to defend the Druze suburb of Jaramana, currently under attack by the Syrian regime (HTS).

Druze reinforcements have arrived in Jaramana with support from the Israeli Air Force.

Here's how this could unfold:
1/4 Yesterday, clashes erupted between the Syrian regime, led by HTS, and Druze forces in Damascus. The Druze are a religious minority that has faced persecution in the past by HTS.

Israel has vowed to protect them.

2/4

Iran is now weeks away from enriching enough 90% Uranium-235 to build a nuclear weapon. It is developing warheads at the Parchin complex. If not stopped, Iran could conduct its first nuclear test in 2025.

Where are Iran’s nuclear facilities, and can Israel destroy them? 1/11 Iran sources uranium ore from the Saghand and Gchine mines. It then mills it into “yellowcake” powder — 99% Uranium-238 and ~1% Uranium-235. Only U-235 can sustain the chain reaction that causes a nuclear explosion. The uranium must be enriched. 2/11

Israel has now destroyed Syria's air defenses, dropping 1,800 bombs on over 500 targets in a few hours. This means Israel can use Syria’s airspace more freely, turning Syria into a springboard for attacking Iran. 🧵1/6 Syria used to possess the most densely concentrated array of air defense batteries in the world. Dozens of Russian-made SA-17, SA-22, SA-6, SA-8, and SA-5 batteries launched hundreds of missiles at Israeli fighter jets over the past decade, downing an Israeli F16I in 2018. 2/6

Israel has conquered Mt. Hermon, the highest mountain in Syria, its peak reaching 2,814m. Syria’s capital, Damascus, is only 40 km away, now within range of Israel’s artillery shells. Here’s why Israel took this mountain:
1/7 🧵 For decades, Israel’s northern defenses were overshadowed by Syria's Mt. Hermon. No longer. The most important natural fortress in the region is now in the hands of Israel. Israel did it quietly, driving into Syria's abandoned positions and taking them without a fight. 2/7

The rebels are now advancing towards Hama, Syria, and are only 40km away from the strategic city of Homs. But who are these rebels? Who is their leader? And what might they do if they took control of Syria? 1/13 🧵 The rebels are led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an organization founded in 2017 by Abu Mohammad al-Jawlani. Jawlani had previously founded the terrorist group Jabhat al-Nusra with support from the leader of ISIS, Baghdadi. 2/13

Some are saying that Israel lost to Hezbollah by agreeing to the Biden-imposed ceasefire in Lebanon. But what has Israel accomplished in Lebanon? And how will this influence Israel’s war with Iran? 🧵1/11

https://twitter.com/jacksonhinklle/status/1861688335132975122

Israel launched its offensive in Lebanon on September 17th. Thousands of Hezbollah fighters were blinded and dismembered when Israel detonated their pocket pagers. Hospitals in Lebanon were so overwhelmed that they had fly them to Iran for treatment. 2/11

Military maneuvers are now underway near a ballistic missile base in Tabriz, Iran. Israel is bracing for an Iranian attack. But exactly how much damage can Iran’s missiles inflict on Israel? 🧵1/9

This video dated October 1st shows dozens of Iranian ballistic missiles raining down on Nevatim Airbase in southern Israel, where some of Israel’s F35 stealth fighter jets are located. Only a few interceptions are seen in this video and most of these missiles hit the base. 2/9

Israel destroyed Iran's S300 defense systems and can now use long-range bombs to target key leaders in Iran. The failed Iranian assassination attempt on Israel's PM Netanyahu last week sets the stage. Iran’s leader Khomeini is now exposed.

Here’s how it could unfold:
(1/13) 🧵 On Saturday, Israel destroyed the last of Iran’s advanced S300 batteries. These long-range batteries could shoot down aircraft over 80 miles away. Iran is now forced to rely on dozens of medium-range defense systems, including the deadly “Hordad.” (2/13)

This map shows how Iranian air defense systems could be layered to protect its nuclear and ballistic missile sites and oil fields. Each circle marks the “kill zone” of an Iranian air defense system.

Can Israel penetrate Iran’s defense? 1/10🧵 Iran’s air defense consists of four S300 battalions complemented by dozens of Russian SA-22 and Iranian-made “Som-Khordad” and “Bavar 373” air defense systems, among the most advanced in the world. 2/10🧵

Yesterday, Israel killed Hezbollah’s leader Nasrallah in Lebanon, only a week after injuring thousands of Hezbollah terrorists, destroying its communication networks, and killing its entire chain of command.

But why hasn’t Israel invaded Lebanon? 🧵1/9 Many assume Israel’s war will take place exclusively in Lebanon. But a closer look is required. Who exactly is Israel fighting? 🧵2/9

Yesterday, Israel continued attacking strategic rocket launching sites in southern Lebanon, leaving large craters visible from space. Why is Israel targeting these sites?

Here’s how Hizballah's rockets can destroy Tel Aviv and why Israel’s Iron Dome may not be enough.
1/14 🧵 Many assume Israel’s Iron Dome and David Sling can protect it against Hizballah’s 180,000 rockets. After all, these systems have worked reliably for over a decade. But every defense system has a weakness. 2/14 🧵

Hizballah just revealed part of its massive tunnel network with thousands of missiles capable of striking Tel Aviv. Many assume Iran funded this. But much of Hizballah’s funding comes from a more lucrative source: Cocaine.

Here’s how Hizballah can infiltrate your city:🧵1/11 In the 1990s, South American Drug cartels La Oficina and Los Zetas had a problem. While their network of trust necessary for a successful smuggling operation extended throughout the Americas, they lacked such contacts in Africa and Europe. Hizballah was the solution. 🧵2/11

Large military maneuvers are now underway near a strategic ballistic missile base in Kermanshah, Iran. Israel is bracing for an Iranian attack. So why doesn’t it attack and destroy Iran's ballistic missiles? Why does Israel wait? 🧵 1/13 Two weeks ago, Israel planted a bomb under the bed of Hamas' leader Hanyia right next to the Presidential palace in the heart of Teheran. On the same day, Israel killed Hizballah’s chief of staff in Beirut, months after killing Iran’s General Zahedi in Damascus. 🧵 2/13

Yesterday, Israel struck the Al Dabaa airport near Al Qusayr in Syria, reportedly killing a key Hizbullah commander involved in the Iranian drone program. Why did Israel choose this target? Why now? And how is it connected to the imminent Iranian attack? 🧵1/11 In April, Israel’s “Arrow” system intercepted over 100 Iranian ballistic missiles in space. On the same night, Israel and five allies chased down hundreds of small Iranian suicide drones over Jordan and Iraq. But why did Israel need help shooting down these simple drones?🧵2/11