Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
Aug 13 12 tweets 3 min read Read on X
NEW: Ukrainian forces appear to be advancing further within Kursk Oblast despite recent milblogger claims that Russian forces were stabilizing the frontline in Kursk Oblast.

Kursk Tactical Update 🧵(1/12)Image
2/ Russian milbloggers claimed on Aug. 11 that Ukrainian offensive activity decreased in Kursk Oblast, however, a prominent milblogger refuted these claims on Aug. 12 & noted that Russian forces are far from stabilizing the situation, in part due to poor command and control (C2).
3/ Ukrainian forces reportedly launched new incursions into western Kursk Oblast near Slobodka-Ivanovka (NW of Sumy City & 2 km from the border), Tetkino (south of Slobodka-Ivanovka), Gordeevka, Uspenka, & Viktorovka (all north of Sumy City along the border & south of Korenevo).
4/ Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces seized Slobodka-Ivanovka, Uspenivka, and Viktorovka.
5/ Russian milbloggers claimed that fighting continued near Snagost (south of Korenevo) and Kremyanoye (east of Snagost) and that Ukrainian forces are attacking north and south of Korenevo in an attempt to bypass the settlement.
6/ Geolocated footage indicates that Ukrainian forces recently advanced within Kremyanoye and east of Zhuravli (northeast of Korenevo), and a Kremlin-affiliated milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces advanced north of Zhuravli towards Obshchy Kolodez (northeast of Korenevo).
7/ Additional geolocated footage indicates that Ukrainian forces recently advanced in a forest area north and east of Semenovka during a likely battalion-sized mechanized assault in the direction of Kauchuk, although the exact contours of Ukraine's advance are unclear.
8/ Geolocated footage published on August 12 indicates that Ukrainian forces were recently operating in Sudzha and northern Zaoleshenka (west of Sudzha), and Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces have seized Sudzha and Spalnoye (southeast of Sudzha).
9/ Additional geolocated footage published on August 12 shows Ukrainian vehicles operating in northern Giri (SE of Sudzha) and Russian forces ambushing Ukrainian forces in central Giri, indicating that Ukrainian forces at least temporarily advanced into the settlement, although it is unclear if Ukrainian forces maintain positions in the area.
10/ The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces repelled a Ukrainian attack near Borki (southeast of Sudzha), suggesting that Ukrainian forces likely advanced into Giri from the west.
11/ Geolocated footage published on August 12 indicates that Ukrainian forces were recently operating in Darino (northwest of Sudzha and three kilometers from the international border).
12/ Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces also conducted cross-border incursions with armored vehicle support from Sumy Oblast northwest of Grayvoron, Belgorod Oblast near Kolotilovka and Prelesye and south of Grayvoron near Bezymeno. isw.pub/UkrWar081224
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More from @TheStudyofWar

Aug 13
The war in Ukraine is transforming the character of war in ways that will affect all future wars.

The integration of new technologies with traditional weapons systems and approaches is the primary factor that has given renewed prominence to the challenges of maneuver warfare and transformed the war in Ukraine into a positional conflict. 🧵(1/15)Image
The US and its allies must rapidly adapt themselves to address the fundamental problems of contemporary warfare being exposed in Ukraine which fall into two main categories: (2/15)
1. Traditional problems that have re-emerged (and do re-emerge at intervals in the history of warfare as conditions change); and

2. New problems resulting from technological changes occurring now. (3/15)
Read 15 tweets
Aug 13
Eastern Ukraine:

Russian forces recently advanced near Vovchansk, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk.

Ukrainian forces recently regained positions southeast of Siversk and south of Toretsk.

Details, maps ⬇️🧵(1/7)Image
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2/ Geolocated footage published on August 9 shows that Russian forces have marginally advanced within central Vovchansk (northeast of Kharkiv City). Image
3/ Russian forces reportedly advanced along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line amid continued fighting on August 12. A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces pushed Ukrainian forces from several windbreaks south of Berestove, advanced south of Novoselivske (both SE of Kupyansk) and that Russian forces are attacking in several directions towards the N-26 Kupyansk-Svatove highway. The milblogger noted that fighting remains positional, however.Image
Read 7 tweets
Aug 12
NEW | Major Publication | Ukraine’s unfolding Kursk Campaign shows that the battlefield is not fully transparent despite pervasive surveillance by both sides and that concealing operational intent can still achieve operational surprise. 🧵(1/4)Image
2/ The war in Ukraine has seen the most advanced use of offensive and defensive electronic warfare (EW) in history. Pervasive reconnaissance drones have made the battlefield nearly transparent — except when the adversary has been able to blanket it with effective defensive EW. Image
3/ Despite this formidable technological obstacle (and many others), the Ukrainians, against great odds, were able to conceal their intent for long enough to launch a successful penetration attack and subsequent exploitation into Russian territory.
Read 4 tweets
Aug 12
Previous notable incursions into Russia did not change the Kremlin's perception of the international border area, but the Ukrainian operation in Kursk Oblast will force the Kremlin to make a decision.⬇️
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2/ Russia's treatment of the international border area as a dormant front has given Russia more flexibility to accumulate and commit manpower and material to military operations in Ukraine.
3/ Russia has spent considerable resources to build fortifications along the international border area but has not allocated the manpower and materiel to significantly man and defend those fortifications.
Read 7 tweets
Aug 12
NEW: Ukraine's operation in Kursk Oblast has allowed Ukrainian forces to at least temporarily seize the battlefield initiative in one area of the frontline and contest Russia's theater-wide initiative.🧵(1/7)Image
2/ Russia's possession of the theater-wide initiative since November 2023 has allowed Russia to determine the location, time, scale, and requirements of fighting in Ukraine and forced Ukraine to expend materiel and manpower in reactive defensive operations.
3/ The Ukrainian operation in Kursk Oblast, however, has forced the Kremlin & Russian military command to react and redeploy forces and means to the sector where Ukrainian forces have launched attacks. Russian forces were notably not conducting active operations in Kursk Oblast.
Read 7 tweets
Aug 11
NEW: Iran has not retaliated quickly against Israel because Iran very likely seeks to ensure that its next attack restores deterrence with Israel while simultaneously avoiding a large-scale war. (🧵1/6)Image
2/ Iran previously attacked Israel on April 13, 12 days after Israel killed one of Iran’s senior-most military commanders in Syria on April 1. Iran and its allies fired 170 one-way attack drones, 30 cruise missiles, and 120 ballistic missiles at Israel in its April 2024 attack.
3/ The United States, Israel, and their allies intercepted most of the projectiles, and the Iranian attack did significantly less damage than Tehran intended.
Read 6 tweets

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