NEW EVIDENCE THAT @KamalaHarris WILL CONTINUE CRYPTO CRACKDOWN
her advisor choices suggest she will keep biden’s hostile attitude to crypto
harris is working w/ brian deese & bharat ramamurti, 2 key anti-crypto officials from biden admin..
thread 🧵
we got some intel on the harris campaign’s current posture on economic policy, and who they are working with, from some bloomberg @business reporting this morning
deese and ramamurti are two key architects of the biden admin’s anti-crypto crusade, including chokepoint 2.0
deese famously wrote a blog on the white house website “the administration’s roadmap to mitigating cryptocurrency’s risks” on jan 27, 2023
the blog claims to support innovation, but casts the whole of their crypto policy through a “fraud” and “risk mitigation” lens whitehouse.gov/nec/briefing-r…
harris advisor brian deese’s anti-crypto white house blog was published on jan 27, 2023 — that very same day:
- the Fed rejected @custodiabank’s membership ()…
- …and master account application ()
- the Fed extended jan 3 2023 bank restrictions on crypto activities to all members, including state-chartered entities ()
- jan 27 was a friday, but when the senate opened again on feb 2, sen. dick durbin (majority whip, number 2 senate dem) took to the floor to lambast firms like fidelity for working on crypto (video: , press release: ). durbin also specifically praises the fed for its denials of custodia’s application
white house blog, two key fed denials, fed guidance expanding its authority on crypto dramatically, and 11 min floor speech from senate banking it’s hard to believe that the concurrent timing of these actions was not coordinated. and given the national economic council’s central role in forming white house economic policy, it’s obvious that deese was a central figure in the enactment of “chokepoint 2.0,” of which the actions above were central parts. but we don’t have to infer — it’s been widely reported (more later in thread)federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pre… subscriber.politicopro.com/article/2023/0… federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pre…
now to bharat ramamurti. he worked under deese at the national economic council (the two probably met at yale law, where they overlapped in the 2000s) and has extensive experience working for sen. elizabeth warren, the senate’s biggest crypto antagonist. he worked in her senate office and led economic policy for her presidential campaign
fortune describe bharat as “the white house’s top crypto critic”
@leomschwartz reported that it was ramamurti who intervened to block the stablecoin compromise between @PatrickMcHenry and @RepMaxineWaters in july 2023 finance.yahoo.com/news/white-hou…
by the way, bharat later left the white house and was replaced on the NEC by jon donenberg, yet ANOTHER former warren aide. based on harris’ advisor choices, i won’t be surprised to hear shortly that he TOO will advise the harris/walz campaign. SAD!
in april, @rkuttnerwrites confirmed leo’s reporting, saying that it was specifically deese and ramamurti who intervened to kill the stablecoin legislation ()
keep in mind that this bill would have legalized but *heavily regulated* stablecoins — both with oversight (how they operate) and prudential (what collateralizes them) powers. regardless of what you think of such a bill, it would undoubtedly have brought stables in from the cold and added significant consumer safetyprospect.org/power/2024-04-…
by the way, the well-known primary sticking point was that republicans like @PatrickMcHenry wanted to preserve a state pathway for stablecoin issuer registration, meaning that a state-chartered depository (a state bank) could be allowed to issue a stablecoin. democrats seems okay with this, until deese and ramamurti’s intervention, at which point the democrats decided they would ONLY support a stablecoin bill if it gave regulatory authority SOLELY to the federal reserve and national banks
the irony in this is, of course, that on jan. 3 2023 (7 months earlier), the fed (and OCC and FDIC) issued guidance effectively prohibiting national banks from doing anything with crypto, and on jan. 27 2023 (6mos earlier) extended that guidance to state banks).
so when the democrats changed their stablecoin negotiating position to “only national banks under fed oversight can issue stables” at the urging of deese and bharat, it wasn’t intellectually honest. the fed and national bank regulators already prohibited it! brian and bharat knew this of course, because they helped orchestrate the operation chokepoint 2.0 policies with the fed and regulators in the first place!
mchenry and the republicans couldn’t accept that position because they knew that leaving it up to the national banking regulators and federal reserve would ultimately prevent any legal stablecoins from being issued, negating the purpose of the bill itself (fwiw states like New York have long allowed stablecoin issuers with strict oversight, but it has worked)
if harris’ campaign is really about the future, why are the backwards thinkers of the biden administration advising her on economic policy? she would do well to instead listen to democrats like @RoKhanna @RitchieTorres @WileyNickel @RepDarrenSoto @SenGillibrand and others who know that blockchains are the futures
people are policy at the end of the day, and if brian deese, bharat ramamurti, wally adeyamo et al are set to lead economic policy in a harris/walz administration, it’s VERY UNLIKELY the administration will soften its stance on crypto
.@CaitlinLong_ talked about bharat’s influence beginning at 32:45 on @laurashin’s podcast that came out today — worth a listen
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last quarter, crypto VC fund managers saw experienced a challenging fundraising environment with the fewest new funds (8) raising the least money ($140m) since Q3 2020 🧵
all the data in this thread comes from our new quarterly VC report w/ @hiroto_btc read it here. note that fund data comes from galaxy research's visiontrack database. learn more visiontrack.galaxy.comgalaxy.com/insights/resea…
on the deal side, crypto VC fund activity ticked down QoQ, with VCs investing $2.4bn across 487 deals. a tepid environment to say the least
creditors have been stuck in mt gox bankruptcy for 10+ yrs--finally trustee says in-kind distribution of #BTC #BCH will begin in july. we think fewer coins will be distributed than people think & that it will cause less #bitcoin sell pressure than market expects
here's why 👇
the data in this thread is based on reviewing bankruptcy filings, talking with creditors, and a variety of assumptions. please note that these are estimates and are intended to be directional rather than definite. this is not investment advice and please do your own research.
on may 13 i sent a note to clients & counterparties of @galaxyhq detailing some of the numbers. see the summary graphic. gox lost ~940k btc ($424m at the time) and recovered 15% (141,868 BTC, or ~$63.9m at the time), now worth $9bn. while only a 15% recovery, that's a 140x gain for creditors in USD terms.
(for my first ever long X post, I'm releasing a note I sent early this this morning to Galaxy counterparties and clients)
The sun hasn’t yet risen in NYC, but I know it will. From Galaxy HQ north of Battery Park, the Hudson River looks like a sea of black but for the occasional glow of ferry lights appearing from or receding into the darkness. But Bitcoin is awake. If you want to sleep in this market, you better not wake up for a glass of water at 3am and look at the Bitcoin price, because you’re liable to be greeted with a fat green candle that makes returning to bed difficult. BTC is trading above $59k, and apparently traded as high as $59.5k in the early hours on the Eastern seaboard of the United States.
There are reasons – if you’re reading this you probably know a lot of them. The BTC ETFs took in a whopping net $576m of BTC yesterday (Tuesday Feb. 27), with BlackRock alone seeing $520m of inflows, its largest ever day. Saylor is still buying for MSTR; Reddit is going public and said it may continue to add BTC, ETH and MATIC to its balance sheet. Fidelity Canada (different from Fidelity Investments) is recommending a 1-3% allocation. Every day we see news that another RIA platform has added support for the ETFs. A wave of new demand is smashing against a programmatically scarce asset of which 75% is held by long-term holders, many of them diamond-handed zealots forged in the fire of several volatile market cycles.
One big question I’m hearing this week – where are we in the “cycle?” Notably, Bitcoin is trading just 12.16% below its prior all-time high. Bitcoin’s 4th halving will occur in about 52 days. At this point prior to the last two halvings, BTC was still down 60%+ from its previous all-time highs. Effectively, the bull runs of 2017 and 2020 hadn’t yet begun at this stage in Bitcoin’s supply schedule.
52 days before 2nd Halving (9-JUL-16)
BTCUSD $455.22 (-59.86% from ATH)
52 days before 3rd Halving (11-MAY-20)
BTCUSD $6,174 (-68.56% from ATH)
52 days before 4th Halving (20-APR-24)
BTCUSD $59,330 (-12.16% from ATH)
Although there have only been 3 halvings, and at 15 years old Bitcoin is still young by the standards of any asset class, some have raised worry that we may be speedrunning the “cycle” this time around. I suppose the notion is that the run we’ve seen over the last year might be the bull run, and that the normal course of post-halving bullish cycle may not occur. If we make a new ATH before the expected halving date of Apr. 20, 2024, that would further exacerbate this view, some say.
I’m here to say that I don’t believe that for a second. This time is different. The advent of Bitcoin ETFs in the United States is truly a monumental shift that will disrupt everything we know about Bitcoin price cycles, how to assess holder behavior, and intra-crypto rotational dynamics. But before I get into that, here’s a pile of data that suggests we are not yet topping.
Long & Short-Term Holders
Long-term holders are still mostly holding strong, currently possessing about 75% of all BTC supply. In just the last few days, we have seen a small decline – signifying a marginal transfer of coins from long to short term hands – the magnitude is nowhere near what we’ve seen in prior cycles.
MVRV Z-Score
Another way to visualize the cyclicality of Bitcoin price action is to examine the aggregate cost basis of the Bitcoin supply. While market value (market capitalization) is calculated by multiplying the current circulating supply by the last known price, realized value (realized capitalization) sums the value of coins at the time they last moved onchain. For example, if I bought a coin for $100 in 2012 and haven’t moved it since, that coin contributes $100 to the aggregate realized market cap. If we calculate a Z-score, the ratio between the difference of market cap and realized cap, and the standard deviation off market cap, we can evaluate whether Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued.
Futures Open Interest
While BTC futures open interest is nearing all-time highs, so too is CME’s market share at more than 25% of all OI. Whereas prior peaks coincided with market tops, those futures markets were dominated by offshore crypto-collateralized exchanges, and market participants were much less institutional. They used volatile cryptoassets as collateral, sometimes an exchange’s native token (RIP FTT), and took on crazy amounts of leverage. Today, CME dominates and traders must post cash. And you have bigmarket players now – such as the authorized participants for the Bitcoin ETFs – that are using futures to hedge rather than for leverage.
Indeed, as @DylanLeClair_ pointed out (), the futures complex is completely different to prior cycles. The percent of crypto-margined futures open interest is “down only.”
More on leverage – shout out to Hannah Burgess who flagged this chart from @cryptoquant_com for me. The leverage ratio across exchanges is lower than it was just 2 months ago, let alone last summer. By dividing futures exchanges’ open interest by their total BTC reserves (i.e., custodied assets), you can get an idea of what user leverage. Increasing values indicate more investors taking leverage risk, while decreasing values suggest lower risk. (Image omitted due to 4-image max on X, see subsequent tweet)
Retail Interest
There’s definitely some retail interest, as exhibited by ETF inflows (more on ETFs below), but some of the toppy metrics haven’t yet rebounded. Google Trend data shows still minimal search interest, app store rankings show the retail crypto apps are not peaking as they have during prior runs, Twitter mentions are well below prior peaks, etc. (Image omitted due to 4-image max on X, see subsequent tweet)
Bitcoin ETFs
The ETFs have added assets on a net-basis over 21 of the last 22 days – and incredible feat. Yesterday was the third largest day of net inflows, and Monday was the 4th largest day. Flows appear to be accelerating, not stagnating or subsiding.
Bloomberg Intelligence (@JSeyff)
Despite incredible volumes and flows, there’s plenty of reason to believe that the Bitcoin ETF story is still just getting started. As we wrote in our October 2023 report “Sizing the Market for the Bitcoin ETF,” () the primary net new accessible market for these vehicles are wealth managers and financial advisors, who have not had a real way to allocate client capital to Bitcoin exposure. While we are periodically seeing headlines of this or that RIA adding support for the ETFs, there is $40tn of AUM at banks and broker/dealers that has not yet turned on access. We are likely to see a constant drip of headlines over the next 3-18 months about these platforms adding access – and these won’t just be catalyzing headlines, they come with the chance of new inflows too!
US Wealth Management - By Platform Type
Broker-Dealer = $27.1tn
Bank = $11.9tn
Registered Investment Advisors = $9.3tn
Total US Wealth Management AUM = $48.3tn
Source: Galaxy Research; Data: Dakota (Oct. 2023)
In April, we will also get the first round of post-ETF-launch 13F filings, and (I’m just guessing here…) we are likely to see some huge names have allocated to Bitcoin. New platforms, new investments, and higher prices compound on each other, creating a feedback loop.
Declining Volatility
Over time, BTC’s volatility has declined, and it is likely to continue declining over time. ETF buyers, especially advisor-managed accounts, are much less likely to day trade than cryptocurrency exchange users. Said another way, if a large portion of BTC ends up inside ETFs, these assets will likely be stickier than BTC held on a crypto exchange. (Image omitted due to 4-image max on X, see subsequent tweet).
Intra-Crypto Cyclicality
That stickiness is also likely to dampen intra-crypto cyclicality. Long time crypto traders and observers will know that, historically, in bull runs BTC typically leads, then when it stagnates or tops money rotates further out the risk scale, culminating in an “altseason.” Bitcoin held on a crypto exchange can be easily swapped for Ether, and then for altcoins. But Bitcoin held in ETFs cannot be so easily swapped, nor are ETF holders – again if they are heavily comprised of advisor-managed accounts – likely to swap even if they could. The ascendancy of the Bitcoin ETFs will lower the likelihood of major intra-crypto capital rotations. And if Ether ETFs get approved, it will become increasingly difficult for other altcoins to see capital inflows relative to those two because, after all, BTC and ETH together comprise most of the capital and offer exposure to nearly all of the market narratives.
Bitcoin’s 4th Halving
Just a quick word on this. We all know that, historically, Bitcoin halvings have preceded major bull runs (usually by a few months). While the reduction from ~900 new coins to ~450 new coins per day is small in absolute terms (and relative to BTC’s daily float of $10-25bn over the past few months), nonetheless prices are set on the margin and there really aren’t many coins for sale at these prices. But beyond any supply impact – which again I believe is marginal– this will be the first halving in which major US asset managers have a marketing machine working to educate on Bitcoin, and there is no better Bitcoin education than learning about the halving. So it’s a narrative event first (a quadrennial marketing moment) and a supply event second, though I think both aspects will be impactful.
Can’t (s)top Won’t (s)top
All this is to say, my answer to that burning question – where are we in the cycle? – is that we haven’t even begun to reach the heights this is likely to go. The ETFs are genuinely a game changer and they are still just getting started. Given the flows we are seeing, both in the ETF complex and through our desk, I think it’s reasonable to see a new all-time high within a matter of weeks. We’re starting to hear Bitcoin spoken about alongside gold and treasuries as macro hedge assets – just this morning I heard a traditional finance research analyst suggesting Bitcoin is becoming a genuine “hedge to fiat debasement” on national television. Bitcoin is prime time now, and while it might be hard to believe, things are just starting to get exciting.
Alex Thorn
Head of Firmwide Research, Galaxy
New York City
this bill from @SenWarren massively expands the bank secrecy act, imposing bank-like KYC rules on non-custodial software products, including FOSS. and it’s gaining steam with 5 new co-sponsors 👀
specifically the bill calls for dramatically expanding the bank secrecy act to cover open source software, including non-custodial wallets, miners, and validating nodes
as non-custodial and decentralized software cannot plausibly perform centralized compliance functions, warren’s bill would effectively outlaw crypto in america
the #bitcoin gamma squeeze from last week could happen again 👀
if BTCUSD moves higher to $35,750-36k, options dealers will need to buy $20m in spot BTC for every 1% upside move, which could cause explosiveness if we begin to move up towards those levels
more 👇
when dealers are short gamma and price moves up, or when they are long gamma and price moves down, they need to buy spot to stay delta neutral. last week’s expiries will dampen potential explosiveness, but it’s still in play.
compare today’s gamma profile to last week’s. (thanks to @Amberdataio for helping us calculate this)
this week i’m looking at some other derived metrics. (btw, if you want to understand how to use onchain data to derive valuation metrics, read this great report from @christine_dkim galaxy.com/insights/resea…
options market makers in #bitcoin are increasingly short gamma as BTC spot price moves up.
when you’re short gamma and spot px rises, you need to buy back spot to stay delta neutral.
this should amplify the explosiveness of any short-term upward move in the near term. more 👇
when dealers are short gamma and price moves up, or when they are long gamma and price moves down, they need to buy spot to stay delta neutral.
using data from @Amberdataio, we can calculate dealer positioning, and our analysis shows dealers are increasingly short gamma starting around $28.5k and above. at $32.5k, market makers need to buy $20m of delta for every subsequent 1% move higher. the positioning implies that market makers need to buy back increasing amounts of BTC as spot moves higher, which should add to the explosiveness if any upward move in the short term.
more, dealers are long gamma in the $26,750-28,250 range. when you’re long gamma & spot declines, you also have to buy back spot to stay delta neutral. thus any short term downside px action will face resistance as options dealers buy back delta.
this is a great setup for bulls because if spot moves moderately higher, short gamma covering could make it rip much higher pretty quickly, but if it moves lower, long gamma covering could provide some support and limit near term downside.