1/ The Russian publication 'Interesting Stories' has published a lengthy interview with a former Russian army officer who opposed the invasion of Ukraine. He explains how the Ukrainians were able to invade the Kursk region so easily. Here are some extracts. ⬇️
2/ The former officer comments that the Russian Volunteer Corps and Freedom of Russia Legion began mounting raids into the Kursk region in March 2024. This was done to observe "how quickly they respond to your arrival, how many forces are there, where, what, how."
3/ While the Ukrainians were gathering intelligence on the ground, the officer says, the Russians didn't react: "what changed on our side [on the border] in six months? Fucking nothing."
4/ And when all these raids on the Kursk direction started, the border guards only had light firearms, no heavy equipment, and the border was practically always open. But nothing changed in six months.
5/ Authorities allocated money to strengthen the border: ‘dragon’s teeth,’ trenches were supposedly dug — but mostly, the money, as usual, was fucked up [i.e. stolen]."
6/ Those on the border knew something was up, he says, but were brushed off by the general command. "As usual, all requests up the chain were met with: ‘We have everything under control; intelligence reports that nothing has been noticed.’"
7/ When the Ukrainians began their offensive, "they arrived in groups and just started pushing forward without securing positions. Just further and further — one swift push."
8/ "Because if they were to secure positions, it would give us more time and opportunities to bring in troops to stop them. So they just push forward as fast as possible, while ours are talking shit, arguing, showing up, and filming reports.
9/ "As they say in the army: ‘If you want to defeat Russia, declare war, and it will fuck itself up with inspections.’"
10/ The main Ukrainian force has been preceded by a screening force of long-range sabotage and reconnaissance groups (DRGs) which "go even further — and start digging in. And when the Russian troops finally show up, the DRGs start attacking them."
11/ "In this situation, our forces didn’t just respond late — they didn’t respond [properly] at all ... they surrender in whole packs, because, firstly, the conscripts don’t know how to fight, and secondly, they don’t have the weapons to repel such attacks."
12/ The former officer says that the Ukrainian offensive has been aided by catastrophically poor Russian command decisions, such as the sending of hundreds of troops in a convoy that was obliterated by HIMARS strikes at Rylsk on the night of 9 August.
13/ "At least on the front line, after some time and massive losses, they figured out that driving in a convoy is suicide. But those sitting here still drive in convoys and think they’re going to a parade.
14/ "The AFU has drones, has rockets — what kind of fucking idiot would lead a convoy in this case, and one that’s even being filmed for the news. That’s why the guys died, without even getting there."
15/ He doubts that the Ukrainians will go much further into Russia, as the line of the breakthrough is small and there is a significant risk of encirclement. "As soon as our forces start doing something right and pull in reserves, they can block the [AFU] approaches from Ukraine.
16/ "The Russian army will encircle them, stop the flow of resources, then just tighten the ring and destroy them all."
As for the local civilians, the former officer believes they will be written off by the Russian authorities.
17/ "Since this is Russia, we won’t give a fuck about the civilians left there. It’s already clear that the locals have been abandoned to fend for themselves — people there are on their own.
18/ "They’ll level everything with artillery and aviation: after all, what is Kursk Oblast compared to Russia?”
1/ @olliecarroll commented a few days ago on how "heavenly" the roads in the Kursk region look compared to elsewhere. At the same time, the building of border defences has clearly been neglected. Corruption is reportedly the reason for both phenomena. ⬇️
2/ The VChK-OGPU Telegram channel reports that Russia's Transport Minister, Roman Starovoyt, has been in an "agitated" state since Ukraine invaded the Kursk region. The reasons are said to lie in his previous role as head of the Kursk regional government.
3/ Starovoyt led the regional government from October 2018 to May 2024 before being promoted by Putin to Transport Minister. During that time, the channel reports, 16 billion rubles ($176 million) were supposed to have been spent on border defences in the Kursk region.
1/ A Russian soldier captured by Ukraine recorded himself looting an abandoned house in the Kursk region. The video was reportedly retrieved from his mobile phone. It potentially corroborates reports of widespread looting from their own civilians by the Russian military. ⬇️
2/ In the video, the man shows himself wandering around the house's ransacked interior. The building appears to have been damaged, probably by shelling. He complains that "the Ministry of Defence" (i.e. the Army) have been there before him and have stripped the house.
3/ At least three of his colleagues are visible in and around the building's garage. Describing it as "rich" (in loot, presumably), he says they are "cleaning it [out]".
1/ As Ukrainian forces advance in the Kursk region, law and order in frontline Russian-held areas is reported to have collapsed completely. "Rampant looting" is said have broken out – being done by the Russians themselves – while local residents say they feel abandoned. ⬇️
2/ The VChK-OGPU Telegram channel reports that "in the border areas of the Kursk region, where fighting has been going on all week, there are no police, no firefighters, no doctors, no representatives of the administration.
3/ "According to official information, more than 76,000 people left the settlements (most of them left on their own, since there was no organized evacuation, despite the statements of the authorities), but there are still people there, mostly elderly."
1/ Ukraine's HIMARS attack on a Russian convoy in Rylsk, Kursk region, has prompted fury from Russian milbloggers at the military's incompetence. "The Russian land is full of idiots," one concludes; another complains that "this is some kind of sodomy". ⬇️
2/ At least 13 trucks filled with Russian troops were hit by Ukrainian HIMARS missiles on 8 August, killing many soldiers. It's likely to be one of Russia's biggest losses of life in a single incident since the full-scale war began in February 2022.
3/ The Russian military analyst and volunteer Roman Alekhine calls for the negligent commander in charge of the convoy to be executed, or maybe less drastically, to be demoted and sent to join a "meat wave" assault unit.
1/ Gloomy assessments by Russian milbloggers suggest that Russia faces serious difficulties in defeating Ukraine's Kursk offensive due to a lack of strategic reserves, a reliance on "patchwork" of badly attrited units, and the weakening of other fronts. ⬇️
2/ The "Philologist in Ambush" Telegram channel comments that although Russian reserves are being brought up to serve as a "fire brigade", they "continue to be insufficient even for sustainable stabilisation of the situation, let alone the defeat of the enemy grouping.
3/ "They are insufficient not only quantitatively, but also qualitatively. On the enemy side, there are fairly well-equipped units and formations. So far we have a patchwork of fire brigades, and not enough in terms of numbers.
1/ Despite China's professed support for Russia, Russian drone-makers complain that Chinese companies are providing them with poor-quality, defective, overpriced components that are delivered late or not at all. They attribute it to China covertly seeking to weaken Russia. ⬇️
2/ Russian drone manufacturers are heavily dependent on imported Chinese components. According to research by the Yermak-@McFaul International Expert Group, 67% of the components in the Shahed-136/131, Lancet and Orlan-10 drones come from China.
3/ The 'Vostok Battalion' Telegram channel reports that Ukraine's recent successes in its Kursk offensive were aided by a previously unseen ability to evade enemy electronic warfare systems. The Russians say they themselves lack this ability due to problems with Chinese supplies: