Thread by @BretDevereaux

Worldbuilding/history chatter: the Nights Watch from ASoIaF/GoT/HotD don't actually make a lot of sense.

The basic problem here isn't fantasy at all: how to keep a permanent security presence on a distant and potentially inhospitable border is an old problem. 1/

And because it is an old problem that recurs a lot, there are historical patterns for how it is solved.

The main problem is not how to generate the force, so much as how to keep it on the frontier (rather than either dissolving into the peasantry or marching on the capital). 2/

In practice, you see three recurring solutions to the problem. The Night's Watch is clearly patterned off of the least common of these: a 'military order,' which is to say a knightly religious order, like the Teutonic Knights or the Knights Hospitaller. 3/

Here the solution to 'what holds them to the frontier' is 'religious devotion,' which is a very powerful force.

And you can see this pattern for the Night's Watch: they're called brothers, they take vows, and they serve for life. 4/

The problem is that the organization lacks a singular religion (being split between Westeros two major religions, the Faith of the Seven and the Old Gods), which is a real problem if 'religious devotion' is the main source of cohesion and purpose for an organization. 5/

To be frank, this fits with a broader problem in GRRM's worldbuilding, which struggles with the implication of people believing in their own religions.

Martin is a secular agnostic and so imagines secular societies, but secular societies don't produce religious orders. 6/

Actual religious knightly orders derive their cohesion in no small part from the monastic elements of the life-style - these guys get up every morning and pray together and believe their service is recompense for their sins moving them towards the heaven they all believe in. 7/

Absent that religious motivation, all you have is a highly cohesive body of armed men, with no real ties of loyalty to the crown or the church, but with control of land and peasants (the 'Gifts').

They're going to set up a state. And then march on Winterfell. 8/

Ok, you might say, what about a system where a society just dumps its undesirables up on the frozen frontier.

That exists too and is a subset of the far more common solution to this problem than religious orders: long-service professionals. 9/

And at various points (Han China, Early Modern Europe) you do see the prisons emptied to fill the ranks of professional armies (not, generally speaking, the Romans, though).

But even if you do that, there's a problem: you have to pay these guys and let them retire. 10/

Why? Because you are creating a large, highly cohesive (out of conditions of shared suffering and service) group of armed men with common interests and valuable skills (in violence).

If you do not pay them - and no one pays the Night's Watch - they'll march on Winterfell. 11/

The problem with this is of course Westeros is explicitly the kind of low-state-capacity society incapable of producing or paying long-service professional armies.

If it was that kind of society, you'd have very different politics (appointed governors, not vassal lords). 12/

This gets a bit more directly at the most fundamental worldbuilding problem: Westeros is too big for the kind of vassalage-based polity we're told it has. GRRM has taken War-of-the-Roses Britain, blown it up to the size of a continent, but not dealt with the scale problem. 13/

But the upshot is, in both the shows and the books, this kind of long-service professional army is explicitly beyond the capabilities of the Iron Throne (or Winterfell). 14/

Option 3, for the curious, is 'military settlers' - these guys would be permanently relocated, but w/ land they farmed. You'd very much want them to marry, with land and service being hereditary.

Professionals retiring would, likewise, produce a permanent population. 15/

How would one 'fix' this bit of worldbuilding? I think the answer is that the Night's Watch needs to be structured like an actual religious order.

It needs one religion, which the brothers believe in a lot and which binds them together. 16/

If that's the Old Gods, then the NW would be a creature of Winterfell. If it's the Seven, they'd be creatures of the Iron Throne.

In either case, a highly cohesive body of armed men is not going to be politically neutral the way they often are in the books 17/

Instead, like actual religious orders, they have a lot of land (and presumably peasants on it; the 'Gifts' make no sense unless there are farmers up there), which means they have a lot of wealth and power to throw around, along with, you know, armed men. 18/

This would thus almost certainly be a high status, rather than low status organization, since it would be a wealth, landholding order of sacred warrior-brothers, which - people in the past believed their own religion - is going to garner a lot of respect. 19/

That may well be insufficient: the military orders of the East that emerged in and after the Crusades were never able to retain enough manpower to make the Crusader States viable in the long-term.

But they did wield a lot of influence and wealth! 20/

But as it stands, you have a highly cohesive order of trained, armed, secular warriors (many of whom are former criminals with grudges!) sat up in the frozen north and asked to stay there for no pay.

These guys try to sack Winterfell 11 times out of 10. 21/

And, I should note, they probably succeed! Sure, their numbers have dwindled to less than a thousand, but a core of well-armed, highly cohesive trained fighting men in a society like Westeros - tend to win battles.

They just wouldn't be fighting wildlings or the Others. /end

Addendum: to go by some of the replies, I may not have stressed enough - it doesn't matter how you get the guys for the Watch (though different structures will imply different recruiting pools).

Once you give them weapons, it's a new game and the question is how you KEEP them.

Because in that moment they've stopped being prisoners or captives or rejects you have control over and are instead a standing professional army with *collective* interests.

You can't treat them as individuals anymore - they'll act as a group.

So individual solutions, like the penalties for desertion, are basically useless.

They're not going to break off onsies-twosies, they're going to march south several thousand strong.

Even if you win the war that results, this is a failure state.

And since this is circulating around, let me note that I have a blog () which includes more of this sort of historical-fantasy analysis, including looks not only at GoT/ASoIaF but also Lord of the Rings (start here: )acoup.blog
acoup.blog/2019/05/10/col…