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Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
@TheStudyofWar
Aug 14 • 2 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
NEW: Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces continue to advance in Kursk Oblast amid Russian attempts to stabilize the frontline in the area.

Kursk Tactical Update ⬇️Image
2/ Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces have not completely stabilized the situation in Kursk Oblast despite ongoing efforts to stabilize the frontline and repel Ukrainian attacks. Details below.

Tonight's full assessment: isw.pub/UkrWar081324
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More from @TheStudyofWar

Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
Aug 15
More from @nataliabugayova:

The Kremlin can absorb enormous costs but not without risk or limits. US incrementalism strengthens Putin’s ability to absorb risk, granting the Kremlin time to normalize an increasingly worse reality within Russia. 🧵(1/8)
2/ The next 2–3 years are critical for the Kremlin in this war, however. If US support to Ukraine persists and gains momentum, the Kremlin will have to reckon with its accumulating problems.
3/ The West must abandon its reactive mentality that seeks to contain Russia through countermeasures in favor of a strategy that focuses not only on imposing multiple dilemmas on the Kremlin but also on imposing the most painful ones.
Read 8 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
Aug 15
NEW: Ukraine’s offensive in Kursk has the potential to generate momentum for Ukraine, argues @nataliabugayova. If it does, the US can help Ukraine build on rather than dampen that momentum to regain control over the tempo of the war by targeting Russia's unexploited weaknesses.🧵Image
2/ Russia has vulnerabilities that the West has simply not been exploiting. On the contrary, US incrementalism has helped the Kremlin offset and mask its weaknesses.
3/ The Kremlin’s weaknesses include its inability to pivot rapidly, dependence on others for Russia’s capability to sustain the war, and years of risk accumulation that Russian President Vladimir Putin has yet to reckon with.
Read 6 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
Aug 15
Ongoing Ukrainian operations in Kursk Oblast are generating tangible defensive, logistical, and security impacts within Russia. 🧵(1/7)
2/ Commercially available satellite imagery collected by @Maxar on August 12 shows a newly dug series of field fortifications, including trenches and anti-vehicle ditches southwest of Lgov along the E38 Lgov-Rylsk-Hlukhiv highway (northwest of Sudzha).
3/ Additional satellite imagery published on August 13 and collected between August 6 and 11 shows the recent appearance of field fortifications near the 38K-024 highway just south of Lgov.
Read 7 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
Aug 15
NEW: Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces marginally advanced in Kursk Oblast amid a generally slower tempo of Ukrainian operations as Russian forces continue attempts to stabilize the frontline in the area.

Kursk Tactical Update 🧵(1/15)Image
2/ Ukrainian outlet Suspilne reported on August 14 that its sources in the Ukrainian military stated that the tempo of Ukrainian advances in Kursk Oblast has slowed due to the increasing Russian resistance in the direction of Kursk City.
3/ Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces are gradually stabilizing the frontline in Kursk Oblast and that unspecified Russian reinforcements are arriving from unspecified areas and are establishing communications with Russian units already in the area.
Read 15 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
Aug 14
What is the Tactical Reconnaissance and Strike Complex? 🧵(1/9)

The main obstacle to resorting maneuver on the battlefield in Ukraine is the integration of offensive and defensive electronic warfare (EW) and the use of unmanned systems integrated with ground-based fires and attack drones, a phenomenon we have coined the Tactical Reconnaissance and Strike Complex (TRSC).Image
2/ The TRSC is the combination of pervasive tactical reconnaissance, primarily by drone; drone-corrected precision artillery fire; precision munitions delivered by fixed- and/or rotary-wing aircraft; drone-launched precision munitions; and large numbers of FPV loitering munitions.Image
Image
3/ Extensive offensive and defensive electronic warfare supports the TRSC, which also draws on operational and strategic reconnaissance assets.
Read 9 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
Aug 14
The Russian military command may be pulling select elements of Russian irregular units from Donetsk Oblast to address the Ukrainian incursion in Kursk Oblast.⬇️🧵(1/5)
Image
2/ The Russian military command could also be redeploying units that were previously intended to relieve or reinforce frontline units from rear areas in Donetsk Oblast to Kursk Oblast.
3/ Such a redeployment could affect the tempo of Russian offensive operations in the Russian military's assessed priority sectors over time.
Read 5 tweets

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