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Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
@TheStudyofWar
Aug 14 • 10 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and other senior Ukrainian officials provided updates about the ongoing Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast and outlined several Ukrainian objectives of the operations in the area. 🧵
2/ Zelensky stated on August 3 that Ukrainian forces "control" 74 localities in Kursk Oblast. It is unclear if Zelensky meant that Ukrainian forces are operating in 74 settlements or if he was referring to another type of geographic administrative unit.
3/ ISW has observed claims and geolocated footage indicating that Ukrainian forces are operating in or near roughly 41 settlements in Kursk Oblast as of August 13, although there are many extremely small settlements and localities within this area that ISW has not included in this count.
4/ Discrepancies between Ukrainian official reporting and ISW's observed claims and geolocated footage are not a refutation of Ukrainian official reporting but rather are a result of the inherent limitations of ISW's open-source methodology and commitment to using only publicly available information.
5/ ISW does not assess that Ukrainian forces control all of the territory within the maximalist extent of claimed Ukrainian advances according to the definition of "control" that ISW uses.
6/ Zelensky also stated that Ukrainian forces continue to advance in Kursk Oblast and grow Ukraine's "exchange fund," likely referring to Russian military personnel taken as prisoners of war (POWs).
7/ Zelensky stated that Russian forces had conducted almost 2,100 artillery strikes from Kursk Oblast against Sumy Oblast since June 1, 2024, and that Ukraine's operations into Kursk Oblast are intended to secure Ukraine's borders from the Russian military.
8/ Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) Spokesperson Heorhiy Tykhyi stated on August 13 that Ukraine is not interested in seizing territory in Kursk Oblast.
9/ Tykhyi stated that Ukraine needs to protect itself from Russian strikes and push Russian forces away from Russian border areas that Russia uses to strike Ukraine.
10/ Tykhyi also noted that Ukrainian operations into Kursk Oblast prevent the Russian military from transferring additional military units to Donetsk Oblast and complicate Russian military logistics. isw.pub/UkrWar081324

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More from @TheStudyofWar

Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
Aug 15
NEW: Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces marginally advanced in Kursk Oblast amid a generally slower tempo of Ukrainian operations as Russian forces continue attempts to stabilize the frontline in the area.

Kursk Tactical Update 🧵(1/15)Image
2/ Ukrainian outlet Suspilne reported on August 14 that its sources in the Ukrainian military stated that the tempo of Ukrainian advances in Kursk Oblast has slowed due to the increasing Russian resistance in the direction of Kursk City.
3/ Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces are gradually stabilizing the frontline in Kursk Oblast and that unspecified Russian reinforcements are arriving from unspecified areas and are establishing communications with Russian units already in the area.
Read 15 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
Aug 14
What is the Tactical Reconnaissance and Strike Complex? 🧵(1/9)

The main obstacle to resorting maneuver on the battlefield in Ukraine is the integration of offensive and defensive electronic warfare (EW) and the use of unmanned systems integrated with ground-based fires and attack drones, a phenomenon we have coined the Tactical Reconnaissance and Strike Complex (TRSC).Image
2/ The TRSC is the combination of pervasive tactical reconnaissance, primarily by drone; drone-corrected precision artillery fire; precision munitions delivered by fixed- and/or rotary-wing aircraft; drone-launched precision munitions; and large numbers of FPV loitering munitions.Image
Image
3/ Extensive offensive and defensive electronic warfare supports the TRSC, which also draws on operational and strategic reconnaissance assets.
Read 9 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
Aug 14
The Russian military command may be pulling select elements of Russian irregular units from Donetsk Oblast to address the Ukrainian incursion in Kursk Oblast.⬇️🧵(1/5)
Image
2/ The Russian military command could also be redeploying units that were previously intended to relieve or reinforce frontline units from rear areas in Donetsk Oblast to Kursk Oblast.
3/ Such a redeployment could affect the tempo of Russian offensive operations in the Russian military's assessed priority sectors over time.
Read 5 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
Aug 13
The war in Ukraine is transforming the character of war in ways that will affect all future wars.

The integration of new technologies with traditional weapons systems and approaches is the primary factor that has given renewed prominence to the challenges of maneuver warfare and transformed the war in Ukraine into a positional conflict. 🧵(1/15)Image
The US and its allies must rapidly adapt themselves to address the fundamental problems of contemporary warfare being exposed in Ukraine which fall into two main categories: (2/15)
1. Traditional problems that have re-emerged (and do re-emerge at intervals in the history of warfare as conditions change); and

2. New problems resulting from technological changes occurring now. (3/15)
Read 15 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
Aug 13
Eastern Ukraine:

Russian forces recently advanced near Vovchansk, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk.

Ukrainian forces recently regained positions southeast of Siversk and south of Toretsk.

Details, maps ⬇️🧵(1/7)Image
Image
Image
Image
2/ Geolocated footage published on August 9 shows that Russian forces have marginally advanced within central Vovchansk (northeast of Kharkiv City). Image
3/ Russian forces reportedly advanced along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line amid continued fighting on August 12. A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces pushed Ukrainian forces from several windbreaks south of Berestove, advanced south of Novoselivske (both SE of Kupyansk) and that Russian forces are attacking in several directions towards the N-26 Kupyansk-Svatove highway. The milblogger noted that fighting remains positional, however.Image
Read 7 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
Aug 13
NEW: Ukrainian forces appear to be advancing further within Kursk Oblast despite recent milblogger claims that Russian forces were stabilizing the frontline in Kursk Oblast.

Kursk Tactical Update 🧵(1/12)Image
2/ Russian milbloggers claimed on Aug. 11 that Ukrainian offensive activity decreased in Kursk Oblast, however, a prominent milblogger refuted these claims on Aug. 12 & noted that Russian forces are far from stabilizing the situation, in part due to poor command and control (C2).
3/ Ukrainian forces reportedly launched new incursions into western Kursk Oblast near Slobodka-Ivanovka (NW of Sumy City & 2 km from the border), Tetkino (south of Slobodka-Ivanovka), Gordeevka, Uspenka, & Viktorovka (all north of Sumy City along the border & south of Korenevo).
Read 12 tweets

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