Thread by @joni_askola

1/13 Bigger than expected: The longer the Kursk operation continues and the more resources Ukraine expends on it, the less likely it is that Ukraine will pursue limited objectives.

2/13 As noted by @RALee85, it is evident that Ukraine is not aiming for limited objectives in its Kursk operation, especially considering that it has withdrawn units from the most challenging areas of the front line.

3/13 The longer the operation continues and the more resources Ukraine dedicates to it, the less likely it is to be a limited-scale effort. If the goal were merely to achieve a significant morale boost and a public relations victory, Ukraine would have already pulled back.

4/13 If Ukraine were aiming to maintain only a few limited symbolic territories, it would likely not be continuing its attacks to capture more land at this time, especially considering the associated costs.

5/13 Ukraine's military goals are still somewhat uncertain; however, besides aiming to seize territory and pressure russia to relocate troops from its main eastern front, this may also be an attempt to bring russia's summer offensive to an end.

6/13 According to Mick Ryan @WarintheFuture, Ukraine has successfully completed the initial phases of 'breaking in' and 'breaking through', and they are now in the exploitation phase of the operation.

7/13 As mentioned in my earlier thread regarding Ukraine's options, and in line with Mick Ryan's comments in his thread, Ukraine will have three options once they reach the limit of their exploitation phase.

8/13 The first option is for them to attempt to hold onto all the territory they have captured, which is risky and entails significant costs. To achieve this, Ukraine would need to maintain a strong presence in the region.

9/13 The second option involves a partial withdrawal, allowing them to retain only the areas that are easier to defend. This is a medium-risk choice that entails lower costs compared to the first option, but it still demands a substantial number of troops.

10/13 The third option would be to retreat to the international borders. This approach would optimize political benefits and keep this operation a morale boost for Ukraine while incurring the lowest costs and having the least impact on the rest of the front.

11/13 The first option is likely the least logical, considering Ukraine is dealing with a major manpower challenge that will require months to tackle. In contrast, both options two and three are quite sensible.

12/13 It will be intriguing to see what actions Ukraine takes. The initial phases of the operation were well planned and executed, so let's hope that the upcoming phases are handled with the same level of care.

13/13 Sources:

https://x.com/RALee85/status/1823525662155796590

https://x.com/WarintheFuture/status/1822827083317612832

https://x.com/joni_askola/status/1821834288028913882