Thread by @minna_alander

With the Kursk operation proceeding beyond all expectations, Ukraine has reminded both Russia and the West that the war is far from settled.

I wonder whether many decision-makers and analysts in the west fully appreciate what’s at stake in this war. Some thoughts:

First: there’s no “deal solution” available. Not even Trump can “deal his way out” because there’s no status quo to return to.

At this point the war has unfolded a global effect that is the question whether the western-dominated rules-based world order will prevail.

It’s very much a win or lose situation. Russia has gathered around itself a group of states (Iran, North Korea, China) that are eager to challenge the West’s dominant position and all profit from the continuation of the war.

It’s a wild illusion that China would have any interest to pressure Russia to stop this war. On the contrary, it’s keeping Russia going because it’s very convenient for China that the US is putting both attention and resources into this - as well as the Gaza war.

At some point, also the countries in the so-called “global south” that are currently still hedging, might have to choose what kind of an international system suits them best - one dominated by China, with the support of Russia and Iran, or what the West has to offer.

In Europe, there’s a perfect chance to send both the Kremlin and Russians a message that they need to stop choosing violence because that’s not a way to live in the 21st century.

At the same time, we can help Ukraine become a prosperous and strong member of the European family.

Helping Ukraine end this war on favourable terms and integrating it into NATO and EU will give it an optimal framework to combat corruption, fortify democracy, support its already strong civil society and make it an overall productive member of a future European security order

Giving up on Ukraine and selling out its territory in a misguided deal (which isn’t inevitable, as Ukraine is just showing in Kursk) would create conditions similar to Finland after the Winter War:

Bitterly disappointed population, likely political turmoil, & possibly revanchism

European leaders should ask themselves: do we want to risk failing Ukraine, which could lead to an attempt to take back what they feel they lost unfairly, due to lack of support and even obstruction by partners ? A renewed, likely much less controllable war would probably result

European countries have an urgent self-interest in having Ukraine in NATO. We definitely want Ukraine on our side. It’s Europe’s most combat-experienced military and likely also the most innovative one. We want that know how on our side, not for it to go rogue

A long thread short:

It’s by far not inevitable that this war will have to end in a compromise unfavourable to Ukraine. The doomerism that has dominated the analytical and news landscape is simply not warranted. Nothing is decided yet and the West can still do the right thing.