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Colin Mckerracher Profile picture
@colinmckerrache
Aug 14 • 11 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
Lithium-ion battery demand patterns and applications are changing quickly.

A short thread. Image
EVs are the largest source of demand for batteries, but stationary energy storage is catching up quickly.
BNEF expects stationary storage battery demand to rise 61% this year in capacity terms.
Globally, energy storage will account for around 13% of total li-ion battery demand this year, up from 6% in 2020

Putting this another way, the ratio of EV battery demand to stationary battery demand has fallen from 15-to-1 to 6-to-1 in the last 4 years.
Expected EV battery demand in BNEF’s latest EV Outlook was lowered due to a lower adoption outlook in markets like Germany and the US.
But the overall lithium-ion battery demand forecast remained almost constant due to increased expectations on the stationary side. Image
Prices for turn-key energy storage systems are down 43% from a year ago and that is leading to big increase in deployments
The ways these batteries are being used is also changing. This year, two thirds of all storage installations are being used for energy shifting applications like price arbitrage and helping to integrate renewables. Image
Even with lots of stationary storage demand, there is going to be significant overcapacity in the battery market for quite some time. Nameplate annual battery manufacturing capacity online in China at the end of 2023 was 2.2 TWh. BNEF estimate for demand this year: 1.2TWh.
The outlook for battery demand will continue to be tied closely to EVs, but the stationary storage market is worth watching.

As one part of the energy transition slows temporarily, another is speeding up.
More in this week's Hyperdrive column here:

bloomberg.com/news/newslette…
You can sign up for the daily Hyperdrive Newsletter here:


Our team of analysts @BloombergNEF have a weekly spot. Always lots of cool charts and data!bloomberg.com/account/newsle…
Thanks this week to my colleagues @YayoiSekine and Jiayan Shi for their knowledge and input on this topic.

Full report with much more detail is available to BNEF clients here:
bnef.com/insights/34547

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More from @colinmckerrache

Colin Mckerracher Profile picture
Jul 10
What’s going on with lithium-ion battery prices?

In short, they’re plummeting, and the implications are just starting to ripple out across the automotive and power sectors.

A short thread: Image
Prices for lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery cells in in China fell 51% over the last year and now sit at $54/kWh. The average global price for these cells last year was $95/kWh.
Drivers: Falling raw material prices.
Cathode share of total cost of a battery cell have fallen from over 50% at the beginning of 2023 to below 30% today.
Read 14 tweets
Colin Mckerracher Profile picture
Jul 3
What’s going on with plug-in hybrids?
The technology is enjoying something of a revival, this time led out of China.
A short thread: Image
Why?
Simply put, the latest versions of the technology are aimed at real consumers, not just regulatory compliance.
Average PHEV electric range hit 80km in 2023 and this year will be higher again. Image
There’s also a technology twist.
Just under a third of plug-in hybrid sales in China last year were what’s called extended-range electric vehicles, similar to the original Chevy Volt. These had an average range of 127 kilometers last year Image
Read 11 tweets
Colin Mckerracher Profile picture
Jun 12
Our team at @BloombergNEF published our 10th annual Electric Vehicle Outlook today!
A quick thread on some key findings: Image
@BloombergNEF 1. EV sales are headed for another record year. Despite the headlines to the contrary, global EV sales continue to grow and are set to rise about 20% this year. combustion vehicle sales peaked in 2017 and have no real route back to that peak. Image
@BloombergNEF Still, sales growth is much slower than past years and some markets have stalled. That’s been expected by BNEF for some time, but is also a significant threat to climate targets governments have put in place. There’s no room for complacency. Image
Read 14 tweets
Colin Mckerracher Profile picture
Dec 5, 2023
Lots of headlines written about how EV demand is faltering. Is it?
Global EV sales are on pace for a record year. Heading for around 14 million sold, up 36%.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Image
For now, this looks much more like a winnowing down of who is competitive in the market than a general drop-off in demand.

Pure-play EV automakers are running away with it. They now account for 7% of global vehicle sales. Image
Are EVs just a rich world phenomenon?
No, they're growing fast in emerging economies like India, Thailand and Indonesia.
EV models in the $10,000 range mean more growth ahead. Image
Read 5 tweets
Colin Mckerracher Profile picture
Sep 6, 2023
Did politicians pick winners in supporting EVs, as automotive CEOs like to claim, or was it consumers?

My latest here:
bloomberg.com/news/newslette…
EVs have benefitted significantly from policy support, and would not be where they are without it.
But in most cases that support has been as technology neutral as possible. Fuel cell vehicles were eligible for all the same support, sometimes more. And yet, here's the result: Image
It's worth digging into just how extreme the incentives are now for fuel cell vehicles. In California buyers are eligible for the state subsidy (up to $7,500), national tax credit (up to $7,500), plus up to $30,000 in manufacturer cash back, and a $15,000 fuel card.
Read 10 tweets
Colin Mckerracher Profile picture
Aug 29, 2023
The rise of electric vehicles means gasoline demand in China peaks this year. It's all downhill from here.

My latest:
bloomberg.com/news/newslette…
This isn't BNEF saying it (though we agree), it's Sinopec.
Overall oil demand in road transport will keep growing a bit longer due to diesel use in heavy trucks.
But even there, there's a big shift underway. EV and fuel cell trucks have jumped to 5% share of sales in just a few years. Image
Read 6 tweets

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