What's going on with electric and fuel cell heavy trucks?
A short thread: Sales are picking up quickly, but it's still early days. They are currently about 2% of total heavy truck sales, but in China it's already 6% and Norway they've hit 10%.

Lithium-ion battery demand patterns and applications are changing quickly.

A short thread. EVs are the largest source of demand for batteries, but stationary energy storage is catching up quickly.
BNEF expects stationary storage battery demand to rise 61% this year in capacity terms.

What’s going on with lithium-ion battery prices?

In short, they’re plummeting, and the implications are just starting to ripple out across the automotive and power sectors.

A short thread: Prices for lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery cells in in China fell 51% over the last year and now sit at $54/kWh. The average global price for these cells last year was $95/kWh.

What’s going on with plug-in hybrids?
The technology is enjoying something of a revival, this time led out of China.
A short thread: Why?
Simply put, the latest versions of the technology are aimed at real consumers, not just regulatory compliance.
Average PHEV electric range hit 80km in 2023 and this year will be higher again.

Our team at @BloombergNEF published our 10th annual Electric Vehicle Outlook today!
A quick thread on some key findings: @BloombergNEF 1. EV sales are headed for another record year. Despite the headlines to the contrary, global EV sales continue to grow and are set to rise about 20% this year. combustion vehicle sales peaked in 2017 and have no real route back to that peak.

Lots of headlines written about how EV demand is faltering. Is it?
Global EV sales are on pace for a record year. Heading for around 14 million sold, up 36%.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
For now, this looks much more like a winnowing down of who is competitive in the market than a general drop-off in demand.

Pure-play EV automakers are running away with it. They now account for 7% of global vehicle sales.

Did politicians pick winners in supporting EVs, as automotive CEOs like to claim, or was it consumers?

My latest here:
bloomberg.com/news/newslette… EVs have benefitted significantly from policy support, and would not be where they are without it.
But in most cases that support has been as technology neutral as possible. Fuel cell vehicles were eligible for all the same support, sometimes more. And yet, here's the result:

The rise of electric vehicles means gasoline demand in China peaks this year. It's all downhill from here.

My latest:
bloomberg.com/news/newslette… This isn't BNEF saying it (though we agree), it's Sinopec.

My latest piece for @business looks at how much EVs actually add to total electricity demand. It's probably less than you think:
bloomberg.com/news/articles/… @business There will be around 29 million plug-in passenger vehicles on the road by the end of the year. All those together will add around 0.2% to global electricity demand

My column for @business and @BloombergNEF this week looks at cobalt going into EVs and how it highlights the ways people often underestimate market forces
bloomberg.com/news/articles/… A few years ago, many people were predicting imminent shortages in cobalt as battery demand surged.
Prices ran up in the last year as EV demand really took off. But they’re now down by 40% from the highs. Why?

We launched BNEF’s 2022 EV Outlook today! There's lots of information in the publicly available exec summary, which you can find here:
about.bnef.com/electric-vehic…

A few interesting highlights in this thread The EV fleet is growing very quickly. We now expect 77 million passenger EVs on the road by 2025. But that’s still dwarfed by the number of electric mopeds, scooters, motorcycles and three-wheelers in Asia.
The EV revolution still rides on 2 wheels for now.

My @hyper_drive column this week is about vehicle-to-grid. There are lots (lots!) of good studies on V2G, which I won’t try and parse in 500 words. A few highlights in this thread:
bloomberg.com/news/newslette… via @business Automaker approaches to V2G are changing. For a long time, the Leaf was the only production model to support it. Now, all new VW models will support it from 2022 and I think we’ll see a surge of new EVs with this around 2024.

Thread about the findings from @BloombergNEF 's 2020 Electric Vehicle Outlook.
You can find the full executive summary below, here's a quick tour.
about.bnef.com/electric-vehic… Despite the name, EVO is our outlook for all of road transport. It starts with forecasting total movement of people and goods in the future. Then on to vehicle fleet sizes, sales and drivetrain mix across all vehicle segments, + impacts on energy, materials and infrastructure.

Short thread on s-curves:
I often get asked about this, usually framed as “we’re about to hit the steep part of the s-curve, why is BNEF still only forecasting EVs (including plug-in hybrids) at 11% of global sales in 2025” To do part of our long-term EV forecast at BNEF, we use a modified Norton Bass Diffusion model (fancy speak for an S curve). We add a bunch of extra parameters for availability of charging, affordability and other factors.

Here's a few slides from my Future of EVs talk at the BNEF Summit last week. Feedback welcome! #BNEFSummit
1/ We're expecting around 1.6 million EVs sold this year. Battery electrics are pulling ahead of plug-in hybrids, driven by China. 2/ There are now 14 countries where EVs were above 1% of total vehicle sales. Still small, but most countries cross over 2% around a year after crossing 1%.