Thread by @Schizointel

Ukraine's Kursk 2024 operation has effectively degraded Russian near front GLOC

Russian Logistics:

The Russian counter-attack will have 2 main logistical depots to support the eventual counter attack being Kursk and Belgorod with RZD and ZHV bringing supplies in by rail. Should the Russians deem Kursk and Belgorod no longer safe then secondary hubs are Oryol, Voronezh, and Stary Oskol can be used.

Once supplies come in by rail they will be offloaded and sent to likely Russian staging points (red stars) at Rylsk, Lgov, Chermoshnoi, Selikhovy Dvory, Oboyan, and Rakitnoe by the MTO Brigades by truck. The most optimal routes for the MTO brigades to transport material from the rail yards to Russian troops within 45 miles are highlighted in green. Secondary routes for the MTO to take that will be able to bring a third less supplies a day are highlighted as thick yellow line. Third route option and least preferred that will be able to bring in 2/3 less supplies per day is highlighted in dark orange.

#Kurskregion
#KurskOperation
#KurskBattle
#Kurska
#Belgorod
#BelgorodRegion
#BelgorodBattle
#BelgorodOperation
#Russia
#UkraineWar
#Ukraine

The MTO Brigades are Russia's logistical support to bring supplies from rail hubs to the front ground forces. As highlighted in many papers over the years for a century and a half the Russian army is a railway army and in order to sustain deep operations, and offensive operations it relys of rail with last mile done by truck and is effectively limited to stay preferably within 45 mi of a rail line so that the MTO brigades can most effectively Ferry supplies to the front. Beyond that there is reduced capacity to move supplies. The glaring issue with the eventual counter attack in Kursk in is that they will be operating at around 80 miles or more from a rail line at the current Ukrainian FLOT which logistically speaking for Russia is not ideal in staging and conducting a counter offensive because their supply lines will be stretched thin.

The second problem that Russia is going to run into while organizing and the response to counter the Ukrainians is deciding where to pull MTO assets in Ukraine from and relocate to Kursk leaving units in Ukraine short on logistical resupply assets making the The daily replenishment needed to sustain combat operations more difficult than it already is for the Russians that have had issues with properly supplying units across the front from strategic rail heads.

A MTO Brigades is committed to supporting 1 Combined Arms Army (CAA). Russia has a total of 11 of these MTO Brigades.

Each MTO Brigade fields
2 truck battalions, each battalion comprising
408 transport vehicles composed of
-148 general freight vehicles
-260 specialized vehicles
-48 trailers.

Each Battalion can reportedly haul 1,870 tons of cargo (1190 tons of dry cargo, 680 tons of liquid).

MTO Brigade serves a CAA
MTO Battalion serves a Division
MTO Companies serves Regiments and Brigades

If you want some more reading best if done on PC most of f these links are PDFs.

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8. forbes.com/sites/davidaxe…
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Finally, another issue for Russian Logistics is the logistical hub Belgorod at is also the main GLOC for Task Group North in Kharkiv so now some of those supplies are going to have to be diverted to establish a new group of forces to counter-attack Kursk from the south and east.

The Russian Army is a Railway Army. This has not changed for Russia since the creation of the ZHV in 1851 and you can look at any conflict Russia has engaged in since then and you will see in each one of these conflicts the over dominance and reliance on the railroads, whether it's the Boxer rebellion the Russo-japanese war World War I. The Russian Civil War World War II, Afghanistan the Chechen wars, the invasion of Georgia, the invasion of Ukraine and it's also notable in Russian peacekeeping operations, and military exercises with its csto partners.

The MTO Brigade was supposed to be a streamlining and modernization of the last mile supply in the logistical chain for the Russian armed Forces that would give Russian forces greater mobility during a conflict and the utilization of the MTO brigades is a first in this war in Ukraine and as proven to be not capable under-equipped for the task.

For Russia, they need rail supremacy without it or a contested rail environment Russian Forces will struggle if they stray too far from a rail head and are limited both offensively and defensively and in order to succeed they need a dense rail network.

For most of the world, the rise of the automobile was the decline of the railroad and militaries across the planet opted to switch to vehicles and less reliant on trains due to mobility and efficiency Russia to this day has not embraced this in part due to Russia's geography and the practicalities of its geography and due to Russia's doctrine of active defense which also really has not changed for 100 years. In many ways, Russia is in the same situation as the Austrian empire and the Ottoman empire during World War I in terms of Military Logistics. Russia's Military Logistics is unique across militaries of the planet due to being one of the only few countries still that has an entire branch of its armed forces dedicated to the sole task of rail operations, which most countries have not had literally since World War 1 pretty much the only countries besides Russia are Brazil and Italy and their Railway forces are really tiny and limited compared to Russian Railway Forces.

The reason why Russian railroads are really wide compared to everyone else is literally a Tsarist era policy for the idea of making foreign invasion unsuitable because no one else would be able to use the Russian railroad to invade Russia though this also limits Russia's ability to project power abroad and their reach is effectively limited to those that have the Russian Gauge

Last note, another issue that Russia is going to face logistically in organizing a counter-offensive in Kursk currently, Russian supply lines through the MTO Brigade will be stretched in order to supply the Russian FLOT meaning that Russian forces currently engaged against the ukrainians will not have the most efficient and adequate supplies in timely manner which will likely result in more land being captured by the ukrainians which they can't afford because if Ukraine gets too close to any of the areas that I highlighted such as which will likely result in more land being captured by the Ukrainians which they can't afford because if Ukraine gets too close to any of the areas that I highlighted such as
Rylsk, Lgov, Chermoshnoi, Selikhovy Dvory, Oboyan, and Rakitnoe then logistically speaking, their lines to Belgorod and Kursk will be even further degraded and then it will become a siege and it will be a matter of time before Ukraine captures two major Russian population centers.

In shorts they cannot afford to allow Ukraine to advance further and must Marshal necessary forces to counter-attack. The problem with that though is to rally the forces needed. They will need to strip the logistical resources from the front lines in Ukraine which will make those areas vulnerable to Ukrainian counter-attack.

In short,
For should the enemy strengthen his van, he will weaken his rear; should he strengthen his rear, he will weaken his van; should he strengthen his left, he will weaken his right; should he strengthen his right, he will weaken his left. If he sends reinforcements everywhere, he will everywhere be weak.

Sun Tzu, The Art of War

Belarusian media report that the Ukrainian Defense Forces Operation in Kursk region has led to a collapse in rail traffic in the western and central regions of russia: RZD is not accepting trains from Belarus on the Moscow and Bryansk routes

@Prune602

Like I highlighted a few days ago and with everything above on the logistics side that the seizure of Sudzha was a significant blow to the Russian Railways and the Russian Armed forces now Belarus Media reports RZD has shut down rail traffic in the Moscow Rail District. Besides, attaching a previous thread, I've also attached the map of the Moscow Rail district and have crudely circled in red. The rail lines that according to Belarus media are no longer accepting Rail traffic.

https://x.com/Schizointel/status/1823004142492631340?t=sg_EmBT1tkA06RgARvVuww&s=19

Source @Prune602

The operation of the Ukrainian Defense Forces has led to a collapse in rail traffic in the western and central regions of the Russian Federation: Russian Railways is not accepting trains from Belarus on the Moscow and Bryansk directions

A telegram was sent to the Belarusian Railway about the need to stop sending freight trains from ALL stations of the Belarusian Railway to stations of the Oryol-Kursk branch of the Moscow Railway (MRZhD RR) from 12.08.2024. This telegram is not limited by the validity period, but has the mark "until cancellation". A large number of "abandoned" trains* (code 12 - no locomotive) are noted at stations in the Smolensk region of the MRZhD. This circumstance also affects the rhythm of sending freight trains from the Belarusian Railway in the direction of the MRZhD and leads to a disruption of the traffic schedule.

On 13.08.2024, phone calls with requests not to send trains in the direction of the Smolensk region (via the Krasnoye junction) came directly from the Moscow Railway traffic control apparatus to the Belarusian Railway management. The need for urgent transfer of troops and evacuation of refugees led to the fact that there were no locomotives left for freight trains. Civilian recipients can no longer count on the delivery of goods on time.

t.me/thebulbaa/21254

@Prune602 Source number 2

https://x.com/Prune602/status/1823767865599652117?t=i0EBhIJPntaRdQMTnpJ7gA&s=19

@Prune602 Source 3 Belarusian Railway

belzhd.link/news/operativn…