Thread by @Prune602

‼️ “Russian Railways have faced a transport collapse in regions bordering Ukraine and Belarus following the Ukrainian Armed Forces' invasion” of Kursk”

It appears there is an indefinite suspension of traffic from Belarus to Russia

moscowtimes.ru/2024/08/14/ros…

“Due to difficulties with train traffic, Russian Railways has stopped accepting trains from Belarus in the direction of the Kursk and Smolensk regions, the Belarusian Railway Workers' Community (BRC) reports”

“Russian Railways cited the overcrowding of stations with abandoned trains, as well as the lack of locomotives and drivers to remove them, as the reason for the decision.”

“According to sources, the collapse of traffic was the result of a large-scale transfer of troops to the Kursk region, including from remote regions, for which almost all available Moscow Railway locomotives were used.”

Locomotive shortage STRIKES AGAIN!

Here’s the link to the The Belarusian Railway Workers Community’s Post

belzhd.link/news/operativn…

“some sources report that the concentration of armed forces is being carried out from virtually all regions, even from fairly remote ones or those with complicated logistics”

Might be a rumor, might be panic

“The tense situation with the availability of the required number of locomotives and locomotive crews on Russian Railways has been going on for quite a long time, and has been sensitive since 2023.”

“The reason is poor quality repairs, lack of spare parts, and people's lack of interest in low-paid work.“

BINGO

But they’re say the bigger issue right now (according to their sources) is Russian Railways trying to carry out military transport.

If Russian Railways doesn’t have any available locomotives, nothing is going to move period.

But interestingly, when they were pointing out the directions that moment was cancelled in, I’m not sure if all of it was blocked?

You can see 3 Russian regions border Belarus

Top - Pskov
Middle - Smolensk
Bottom - Bryansk

I think they’ve said Smolensk and Bryansk are blocked, but haven’t seen Pskov called out yet (maybe I missed it?)

Moot point without locomotives though.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

You may have heard me mention how Russian Railways is moving things practically in “manual mode”

And how the putting a fuel ban in place OR REMOVING IT causes chaos.

This is like that on steroids 🤣

https://twitter.com/prune602/status/1823054384357429585

So, if this reporting is correct and the problem is being caused Russian Railways providing traction of military support…it may actually last longer than you would expect it should as they try to untangle everything😂

If there is ANOTHER problem (which is also possible) in addition to this, well that just makes it more fun!

Remember, it appears that Russian Railways isn’t being truthful about what’s actually going on. IT COULD BE WORSE!

I’m going to add a 🚨 Speculation Note🚨

If Russia was concerned that Ukraine may be able to take control of the railways in those 🇷🇺 regions and begin using it to move Ukrainian troops and equipment forward quickly. How would they react?

What what would they do to stop it?

Would Russia begin putting obstacles like, abandoned railcars in the way thus denying or slowing the movement?

Remember, more than one thing can be true at the same time. 🙂

Note: They could drive the stuff into Kursk region, and THEN possibly use confiscated Russian Railway equipment there.

There railways between Ukraine wouldn’t need to be back in place for this to happen. It’s just a matter of how much 🇷🇺 Railway equipment 🇺🇦 has now.

It doesn’t appear that Ukraine has had any trouble getting the heavy equipment into Russia without the rail lines.

And even if Ukraine doesn’t plan to use that option, if Russia is worried about, they’ll want to deny Ukraine access to. Which forces them to act.

But again that’s all 🚨 Speculation 🚨