Kursk Counter-Invasion Day 9
Update 14 AUG 2024 17:00 PDT
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Total area: 1,265 sq km
Breach: 85.6 km
Depth: up to 36 km
🟧Ukraine control: 883 sq km
🟨Russian claimed/gray area: 289.8 sq km
💥Reported combat
🔴Russian presence
We know more, OPSEC 🤐
1/n
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Ukrainian forces confirmed on the SE edge of Korenevo. NASA FIRMS suggests fighting south of geolocation.
Olgovka and Matveevka were liberated by Ukraine. LOC is on the Krepna river.
No new info on status Tolpino, Gvrilovka, or Alexsandrovka.
Kursk 3/n
Korenevo AO
Russian sources confirmed our assessment Ukraine bypassed part of Snagost and advanced to Krasnooktyabrskoe. Secondary GLOC to Korenevo is severed. NASA FIRMS shows fighting.
Ukraine liberated Gordeevka, Viktorovka, and Vnezapnoe days ago. Now official,
Kursk 4/n
Korenevo AO
Byakhovo and Apanasovka moved to the gray area based on Ukraine's information rules on announcing the liberation of settlements.
Russian officials announced the mandatory evacuation of the adjacent Glushkovsky District
Kursk 5/n
Lgov Direction
Ukraine liberated Kruglenkoe, Nikolaevka, Malaya Loknya, and Alkeseevskii (1 house) and reached Pogrebki.
NASA FIRMS suggests fighting in Safonvka, Kauchuk, Mordvin, and Kromskie Byki. Ukrainian losses in Safonovka.
Sheptukhovka to gray area.
Kursk 6/n
Lgov Direction
We do not believe Russian troops are in Kremyanoe, and we've seen multiple claims it is under Ukrainian control. We need the geography to become impossible or a picture/video to switch. That's why it is still gray area.
Kursk 7/n
Bolshoe Soldatskoe Direction
Reduced the gray area at Kukui and Bolshoe Soldatskoe.
Ukraine liberated Cherkasskoe Porechnoe and Kositsa. Russian claims that Ukraine controls Russkoe Porechnoe, or fighting ongoing. Moved to gray area.
Kursk 8/n
Sudzha AO
Entire district almost under Ukrainian control. TCH reporters in Sudzha, small amounts of humanitarian aid being distributed.
Mirnyi, Bondarevka, Kolmakov, and Cherkasskaya Konopelka under Ukrianian control. Ukrainian forces advancing toward Ulanok.
Kursk 9/n
Belitsa AO
Yesterday's assessed LOC in Kamyshnoe was off by - 50 meters. Map team is rizz.
Krupets liberated by Ukraine. Conflicting reports that Ukrainian forces are in Kamyshnoe and Giri versus control Kamyshnoe and clearing Giri.
Expanded gray area S of Spalnoe.
Kursk 10/n
This is not Liubimovka south of Kurchatov and the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant, as some claim. This is Liubimovka, SE of Korenevo.
We made an error about the bombing of Chechens in Malaya Loknya. We skipped checking dates, but now needed. The bombing was August 7-8.
Kursk 11/n
Today's update is conservative due to OPSEC.
Did you know that our map is interactive and has layers? Well, now you do. If you use our map for news stories or social media, we kindly ask for an @. Analyst work and journalism are literally how we pay the bills. Kursk.
12/n
That's all.
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14 August 2024 Russia-Ukraine War Report Podcast (produced in Kyiv)
And thank you for your trust and for supporting our team in Ukraine. We'll take being ahead of Fox News and behind Good Morning America on the US Daily News Podcast chart any day of the week.
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Russia has lost its ability to project hard power across the world because of its almost 12-year-long war of aggression against Ukraine.
Since September 2022, Russia's power has continued to erode.
A 🧵on Russia's failures.
1/8
September 2022: Armenia makes a CSTO Article IV request for mutual defense after Azerbaijan attacks, which Russia denies. Armenia has ended funding and participation in the CSTO, stabilized relations with Azerbaijan, remains in CSTO in name only, and recently called for the withdrawal of a small contingent of Russian forces still in the country.
2/8
November 2024: Uprising in Syria to depose dictator Bashir al-Assad - Assad asks Russia for ammunition, but all he gets is a ride, regime collapses, Russia withdraws forces and equipment, loses access to Khmeimim Air Base, and has military and commercial contracts at the vital Tartus Naval Base suspended. Moscow loses its ability to project power into the Mediterranean.
Last year, I wrote an analysis of Trump vs. Putin. I concluded there were two absolutes for both men.
1) Both hate hearing "no."
2) Both hate disloyalty.
When I wrote that analysis, I predicted they were on a collision course due to their egos and motivations.
1/16
As spring turned into summer, my hope faded as Trump repeatedly gave Putin "two weeks" despite it being painfully obvious that Witkoff was not the right guy to speak on behalf of the White House, and Putin was stringing Trump along.
2/16
There were flashes of improvement following the disastrous White House meeting on February 28. Trump and Zelenskyy meeting at the Vatican on April 26. The White House seeing through Putin's cynical "ceasefire" offer for Moscow's Victory Day Parade. Anger at the Palm Sunday attack on Sumy.
With Zapad-2025 just 3 days away, it would be foolish to dismiss tonight's airspace violations into Poland as "accidental" and not representing a threat.
This is not to say that Russia is planning to attack Poland using Zapad-2025 as a cover.
Military doctrine 101 teaches that a provocation this close to the start of major wargames on a nation's border should be viewed as a significant threat, and appropriate preventative measures should be taken.
1/9
It is extremely alarming that full ground stops were issued at Lublin and Rzeszów airports, as both are major logistics hubs for military aid into Ukraine. Rzeszów is also a major U.S. logistics hub for Eastern Europe. This is in addition to the ground stops at Warsaw and Modlin.
2/9
Tonight represents the sixth time Polish airspace has been violated since 20 August, with a clear pattern of escalation.
The incident, which some U.S. and European officials are openly calling an "act of war," comes less than a month after autocrat Vladimir Putin visited President Donald Trump in Alaska, claiming to seek peace.
3/9
Apparently, who feeds America needs to be explained to people. There is nuance.
1/20
Not all undocumented workers are exploited by their employers and paid slave wages. Many are paid a fair and legal wage. Some workers commit the crime of using the social security numbers of dead people and other individuals. Some of those workers are even assisted by their employers.
2/20
Legally documented workers here on visas with conditional social security numbers for work are treated like their citizen peers. Additionally, they are here legally, with a work permit.
It will cost Russia as much, if not more, to service the bonds currently being sold versus what the bonds are raising for the government in the short term.
Breaking the Russian economy is the path to peace.
As of July 11, the Kremlin was running a deficit of over 5 trillion rubles, almost double the available funds remaining in the wealth fund. April's tax receipts did little to improve the situation. This is a ticking bomb on a short fuse.
2/21
The Kremlin has been forced to nationalize industries, claim questionable wealth from oligarchs using even more questionable reasons, and continue to force companies to convert their foreign currency deposit accounts into rubles to prop up the currency.