Kursk Counter-Invasion Day 9
Update 14 AUG 2024 17:00 PDT
Retweet appreciated
Total area: 1,265 sq km
Breach: 85.6 km
Depth: up to 36 km
🟧Ukraine control: 883 sq km
🟨Russian claimed/gray area: 289.8 sq km
💥Reported combat
🔴Russian presence
We know more, OPSEC 🤐
1/n
Did you miss our last update?
The Russian Ukraine War Report Podcast for August 14, 2024, is live
Ukrainian forces confirmed on the SE edge of Korenevo. NASA FIRMS suggests fighting south of geolocation.
Olgovka and Matveevka were liberated by Ukraine. LOC is on the Krepna river.
No new info on status Tolpino, Gvrilovka, or Alexsandrovka.
Kursk 3/n
Korenevo AO
Russian sources confirmed our assessment Ukraine bypassed part of Snagost and advanced to Krasnooktyabrskoe. Secondary GLOC to Korenevo is severed. NASA FIRMS shows fighting.
Ukraine liberated Gordeevka, Viktorovka, and Vnezapnoe days ago. Now official,
Kursk 4/n
Korenevo AO
Byakhovo and Apanasovka moved to the gray area based on Ukraine's information rules on announcing the liberation of settlements.
Russian officials announced the mandatory evacuation of the adjacent Glushkovsky District
Kursk 5/n
Lgov Direction
Ukraine liberated Kruglenkoe, Nikolaevka, Malaya Loknya, and Alkeseevskii (1 house) and reached Pogrebki.
NASA FIRMS suggests fighting in Safonvka, Kauchuk, Mordvin, and Kromskie Byki. Ukrainian losses in Safonovka.
Sheptukhovka to gray area.
Kursk 6/n
Lgov Direction
We do not believe Russian troops are in Kremyanoe, and we've seen multiple claims it is under Ukrainian control. We need the geography to become impossible or a picture/video to switch. That's why it is still gray area.
Kursk 7/n
Bolshoe Soldatskoe Direction
Reduced the gray area at Kukui and Bolshoe Soldatskoe.
Ukraine liberated Cherkasskoe Porechnoe and Kositsa. Russian claims that Ukraine controls Russkoe Porechnoe, or fighting ongoing. Moved to gray area.
Kursk 8/n
Sudzha AO
Entire district almost under Ukrainian control. TCH reporters in Sudzha, small amounts of humanitarian aid being distributed.
Mirnyi, Bondarevka, Kolmakov, and Cherkasskaya Konopelka under Ukrianian control. Ukrainian forces advancing toward Ulanok.
Kursk 9/n
Belitsa AO
Yesterday's assessed LOC in Kamyshnoe was off by - 50 meters. Map team is rizz.
Krupets liberated by Ukraine. Conflicting reports that Ukrainian forces are in Kamyshnoe and Giri versus control Kamyshnoe and clearing Giri.
Expanded gray area S of Spalnoe.
Kursk 10/n
This is not Liubimovka south of Kurchatov and the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant, as some claim. This is Liubimovka, SE of Korenevo.
We made an error about the bombing of Chechens in Malaya Loknya. We skipped checking dates, but now needed. The bombing was August 7-8.
Kursk 11/n
Today's update is conservative due to OPSEC.
Did you know that our map is interactive and has layers? Well, now you do. If you use our map for news stories or social media, we kindly ask for an @. Analyst work and journalism are literally how we pay the bills. Kursk.
12/n
That's all.
Our resources and channels:
14 August 2024 Russia-Ukraine War Report Podcast (produced in Kyiv)
And thank you for your trust and for supporting our team in Ukraine. We'll take being ahead of Fox News and behind Good Morning America on the US Daily News Podcast chart any day of the week.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Kursk Counter-Invasion Day 8 Update
13 AUG 2024 17:30 PDT
Retweet appreciated
Total area: 1,059.3 sq km
Breach: 73.4 km
Depth: up to 28.0 km
🟧Ukraine control: 769.5 sq km
🟨Russian claimed/gray area: 289.8 sq km
🏁Ukrainian presence
💥Claimed fighting
🔴Russian presence
1/n
Did you miss our last update?
The Russian Ukraine War Report Podcast for August 13, 2024, is live
There are conflicting reports about Snagost and Krasnooktyabrskoe. Reports on Snagost cover the spectrum from Ukrainian liberated, ongoing fight, and Russian control. We split the difference.
Russian sources insist fighting is ongoing in Tetkino. Added a small Russian claimed area
Russian sources claim, without evidence, that Gordeevka is occupied. We moved Viktorovka and Gordeevka to Russian claimed (see yesterday's thread about Viktorovka)
Kursk Offensive Day 5 Update 10 AUG 2024 16:45 PDT
Retweet appreciated
Breach: 58.9 km
Depth: up to 28.0 km
Ukraine control: 536 sq km (high confidence🟧)
Gray area: another 320.7 sq km (🟨)
Total area: 856.7 sq km
🏁= Ukrainian presence visually confirmed
1/n
Russian sources claim, without evidence, that Ukrainian forces occupied Krasnooktyabrskoe and reached the eastern edge of Korenevo. No change at Korenevo. Russian claim extended from Snagost to Krasnooktyabrskoe.
Kursk 2/n
There was a small argument on the team that Russian info about fighting in Viktorovka was both the one by Mala Loknya and near Uspenovka - info was getting conflated. (e.g. Myrne vs Myrne)
We did not adjust the map, but the area by Uspenovka is lit up on NASA FIRMS.
Kursk Offensive Day 4 🧵
Update: 09 AUG 2024 13:15 PDT
Yellow Zone is Russian-claimed
Breach: 56.8 km
Depth: up to 21.2 sq km
Ukraine control: 528.4 sq km (moderate confidence)
Gray area: another 246 sq km
Total area: 776.4 sq km
🏁= Ukrainian presence visually confirmed
1/n
We noticed that the media is quoting our work (with attribution). Thank you, and hello. There is more about us at the end of the thread.
We pulled back the Ukrainian advance in the direction of Snagost because, after multiple Russian claims, there's no evidence.
2/n
Ukrainian forces announced the capture of Sudzha and are visually confirmed in the village of Dmitriukov, 4.82 km from where Ukrainian troops made their capture claim at the Gazprom offices in Sudzha
Ukrainian forces also confirmed in southern Goncharovka
My wife was born, went to university, and started her career in a country where the government collapsed.
Years ago I asked her, what were the warning signs? What was going on in the months, weeks, and days before the government failed?
1/12
Her answer stunned me.
"Nothing."
You ate dinner, cleaned up, went to bed, woke up in the morning, and the news tells you the government failed.
No warning signs.
Nothing.
It just happened.
Yes, the news talked about the problems before, but collapse? Never.
2/12
In the immediate days that follow, you wake up, get dressed, make your tea, eat some bread and sausage, and get on the bus to go to work - or walk if it is a nicer day.
People talk about what's happening, but life goes on.