Thread by @WarintheFuture

Ukraine is continuing to push forward in #Kursk while also conducting a difficult defensive campaign in the Donbas. On the Russian side, the Russians are continuing to push on their main effort – the advance towards Pokrovsk – while seeking to redeploy forces from other areas to stem the advance of Ukrainian forces in Kursk. 1/19 🧵🇺🇦

2/ Both sides are moving forward while at the same time sustaining terrible damage elsewhere. The remainder of this year, and possibly the trajectory of the war, will be determined by who blinks first and decides that focussing on the losses they are sustaining is more important than the gains they are making elsewhere. This is the ultimate expression of Clausewitz’s battle of wills.

3/ However, something else caught my eye today that, in the reporting about the #Kursk operation, has been overlooked. In his video released in the past 24 hours, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy used the following words: “It is important that #Ukraine fights by the rules.”

https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1823779258981908493

4/ This is a very important idea in war generally. But it is also crucial for #Ukraine. There are strategic, diplomatic and moral reasons for Ukraine to ‘fight by the rules’. And it has a direct impact on Ukraine’s ongoing operation in #Kursk oblast.

5/ Since the Russian large-scale invasion in February 2022, Ukraine has fought a defensive war within the bounds of international law. It has incorporated Just War theory into its military strategy. At the same time, Ukraine has brought to light where the Russian military and government have transgressed international law.

6/ The Russians, who have often acted in shockingly brutal ways towards civilians, Ukrainian prisoners of war as well as important cultural sites, have not made any significant efforts to comply with international law in the conduct of their special military operation. It is one of the key asymmetries in this war.

7/ Multiple OSCE reports have highlighted the full range of Russian war crimes. The International Criminal Court has issued arrest warrants for Russia’s president Putin as well as military leaders like General Gerasimov. The office of the Ukrainian Prosecutor General has over 120,000 open war crimes cases against Russian personnel. icc-cpi.int/situations/ukr…

8/ In the aggregate, these represent a systemic approach to the brutalization of the Ukrainian people, the destruction of their cities and cultural sites, and a callous disregard for international law and the laws of war by Russia.

9/ The Russian behaviour has also served to highlight the differences in how Russians and Ukrainians see war, and how they fight. Russia uses nearly every means at its disposal, legal and illegal, moral and immoral. Ukraine does not. What does this mean for the Kursk operation?

10/ People serving in the military have the lawful capacity to plan and execute operations to kill other humans. It is an important part of soldiering. However, the flip side of this lawful capacity is that it must be exercised responsibly and in a proportionate way.

11/ This is not just a principle in international law. It is also the expectation of citizens in democracies. They expect that their military personnel, despite the terrible things they must often do in war, reflect the values of the society they are drawn from and that they represent.

12/ And it is not just about representing the values of a society. Ensuring that military personnel act lawfully and ethically (and these are two different things) is crucial to the projection of strategic legitimacy of a nation at war. When military personnel act professionally, they enhance the legitimacy of their nation and the cause they fight for.

13/ The national reputation that #Ukraine has built during the war through their projection of legitimacy has helped its operation in #Kursk. Because Ukraine is seen to be pursuing a legitimate cause – throwing Russia out of Ukraine – and Russia is not, the incursion into #Kursk has not received any significant criticism from its key supporters.

14/ The Ukrainians in #Kursk are not fighting to expand the size of the Ukrainian state. They are conducting an operation to coerce the Russians into drawing forces away from the Donbas and to convince Russia that it cannot win this war. Fighting by the rules, as Zelenskyy describes it, is an important strategic enabler for Ukrainian military operations at home and in Russia.

15/ A final element of ‘fighting by the rules’ should be emphasised. Those who fight for legitimate purposes and exercise force in an ethical way are better protected from moral harm. By adopting a Just War approach as part of its military strategy, and by ‘fighting by the rules’, the Ukrainian state is also protecting the souls of the soldiers who are fighting. That matters.

16/ Clausewitz understood that the moral forces in war are crucial in deciding the outcome. He writes in Chapter V of Book 3 of On War that “the military virtue of an army is one of the most important moral powers in war.”

17/ I think the Ukrainians understand this, and to the greatest extent possible, appear to have practiced being a virtuous military during this war. It is standing them in good stead as their soldiers defend against the Russian advances in Donbas and continue their advance through western Russia. End.

18/ You can read my detailed examination of this topic in my new article at Futura Doctrina ($). mickryan.substack.com/p/kursk-and-th…

19/ Thank you to the following for the links and images used in this thread: @DefenceU @ZelenskyyUa icc-cpi.int