Joni Askola Profile picture
Aug 15, 2024 9 tweets 4 min read Read on X
1/9 Lessons learned: On day 10 of the Kursk operation, russia is still struggling to stabilize the front, while Ukraine continues to advance. It is clear that Ukraine has incorporated many lessons from its previous counteroffensives and incursions. Image
2/9 Ukraine has evidently learned from its past counteroffensives and incursions. Being able to analyze mistakes and rectify them is crucial, and this serves as a prime example of that. Image
3/9 The Kursk operation is in several ways reminiscent of the Kharkiv counteroffensive. The atmosphere is similar, as both were unexpected and rapid offensives that took the russians by surprise when they were not anticipating an attack. Image
4/9 In comparison to the Kharkiv counteroffensive, which was quite successful but executed with limited equipment and manpower, the momentum faded quickly. It will be intriguing to observe whether a similar outcome occurs in Kursk. Image
5/9 In contrast to the 2023 counteroffensive, this one was much less anticipated, featured significantly better operational security, was more surprising, and took place in more favorable terrain. Overall, it simply makes much more sense. Image
6/9 Electronic warfare has greatly aided Ukraine in countering russian FPV drones in this instance, unlike during the summer offensive in 2023. Image
7/9 This was also evident in Krynky, where russia claimed it was unable to deploy drones due to Ukrainian electronic warfare when the Ukrainians crossed the river. The experiences from Krynky and the rapid incursions into russia are also benefiting Ukraine now. Image
8/9 Ukraine has assessed what was effective and what was not in the past, applying those insights to initiate the operation in Kursk. The initial phases have been highly successful. Let's hope that the current and upcoming phases continue to perform equally well. Image

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More from @joni_askola

Jun 13
1/6 Israel’s strikes on Iran are shaking the region—but the shockwaves won’t stop there.

Ukraine, still locked in a fight for survival against russia, could feel both the fallout and the opportunity.

How might this reshape Ukraine’s war? Image
2/6 The downsides are real.

If this escalation drags on, more Western weapons and attention could shift to the Middle East.

We have already seen US guidance systems meant for Ukraine redirected.

Promises broken. Focus lost Image
3/6 Rising oil prices are another blow.

They pad russia’s war chest, helping it fund more missiles, drones, salaries, and propaganda.

A distracted West and a richer russia? That’s a dangerous combo for Ukraine Image
Read 6 tweets
Jun 13
1/8 Israel just struck Iran.

The world is reacting—but most people still don’t fully understand what this moment really means.

This isn’t about Gaza.

It’s about nukes, power, and the future of the world Image
2/8 Last night, Israel launched strikes on Iran’s nuclear program.

This movement was years in the making—and yet, much of the West still doesn’t understand what’s really at stake.

This isn’t about Gaza.

Iran and Gaza should be treated separately Image
3/8 You can be outraged by Israel’s war crimes in Gaza and still recognize the danger of a nuclear-armed Iran.

These are not mutually exclusive positions.

The Middle East is complicated—and pretending otherwise is dangerous Image
Read 8 tweets
Jun 12
1/4 Why should Ukraine listen to the US if Washington cuts aid and eases sanctions on russia?

If Trump goes down that path, Ukraine has every reason to walk away from any deal—including the minerals one Image
2/4 Trump’s team can’t even criticize russia, let alone pressure it.

They talk about doing business with a regime that invades neighbors, kills civilians, and props up dictators.

russia is an enemy—and an economic midget.

Why sell out allies like that? Image
3/4 This isn’t just morally bankrupt—it’s strategically insane.

Undermining Ukraine, alienating Europe, and cozying up to Putin weakens US soft power, global trust, and even arms sales.

Reagan would be horrified.

MAGA won’t say anything, but real Republicans should Image
Read 4 tweets
Jun 12
1/12 Want to get hated by everyone in one thread? Try this:

Israel might strike Iran’s nuclear program soon—but people in the West need to grasp this:

Gaza ≠ Iran.

You can oppose war crimes in Gaza and still believe Iran must never get nukes.

The world isn’t black and white Image
2/12 Nothing is certain—especially timing—but signs point to an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear program being closer than ever.

Gaza and Iran are somewhat linked, but they are not same—and must be treated as separate issues Image
3/12 You can oppose Israel’s actions in Gaza and still oppose Iran’s regime.

Iran supports hamas, hezbollah, and the houthis—but it doesn’t care about Palestinians.

It exploits their suffering for its own power Image
Read 12 tweets
Jun 11
1/4 What could a US-Israeli strike campaign on Iran’s nuclear program actually look like?

It wouldn’t be a single air raid.

It could be a complex, multi-layered operation—ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, bombs, cyberattacks, sabotage, and more.

Here’s how it could unfold: Image
2/4 Israel has stuck Iran before using air-launched ballistic missiles. It also possesses other air-launched weapons, such as cruise missiles and smart bombs—but a sustained campaign would likely require US support Image
3/4 The US brings tankers—and serious firepower: Tomahawks, JASSMs, GBU-57 ”bunker busters,” and bombs like the JSOW. Some of Iran’s key nuclear facilities are buried deep, requiring heavy payloads to reach Image
Read 4 tweets
Jun 11
1/5 Are Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure imminent?

Signs are emerging—but it wouldn’t be the first time.

Netanyahu’s government and the IDF have been preparing, but the timing likely hinges on US-Iran talks.

Israel can act alone—but prefers US backing Image
2/5 Talks between the US and Iran are ongoing, but time may be running out amid rumors of a breakdown. Israel sees Iran nearing nuclear capability and won’t wait forever. Past strikes show its readiness to act Image
3/5 US moves suggest preparation: guidance systems meant for Ukraine are being redirected to the Middle East, and the US embassy in Iraq is reportedly preparing for evacuation. Two American THAAD batteries are already deployed to Israel Image
Read 5 tweets

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