Joni Askola Profile picture
Aug 15, 2024 9 tweets 4 min read Read on X
1/9 Lessons learned: On day 10 of the Kursk operation, russia is still struggling to stabilize the front, while Ukraine continues to advance. It is clear that Ukraine has incorporated many lessons from its previous counteroffensives and incursions. Image
2/9 Ukraine has evidently learned from its past counteroffensives and incursions. Being able to analyze mistakes and rectify them is crucial, and this serves as a prime example of that. Image
3/9 The Kursk operation is in several ways reminiscent of the Kharkiv counteroffensive. The atmosphere is similar, as both were unexpected and rapid offensives that took the russians by surprise when they were not anticipating an attack. Image
4/9 In comparison to the Kharkiv counteroffensive, which was quite successful but executed with limited equipment and manpower, the momentum faded quickly. It will be intriguing to observe whether a similar outcome occurs in Kursk. Image
5/9 In contrast to the 2023 counteroffensive, this one was much less anticipated, featured significantly better operational security, was more surprising, and took place in more favorable terrain. Overall, it simply makes much more sense. Image
6/9 Electronic warfare has greatly aided Ukraine in countering russian FPV drones in this instance, unlike during the summer offensive in 2023. Image
7/9 This was also evident in Krynky, where russia claimed it was unable to deploy drones due to Ukrainian electronic warfare when the Ukrainians crossed the river. The experiences from Krynky and the rapid incursions into russia are also benefiting Ukraine now. Image
8/9 Ukraine has assessed what was effective and what was not in the past, applying those insights to initiate the operation in Kursk. The initial phases have been highly successful. Let's hope that the current and upcoming phases continue to perform equally well. Image

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More from @joni_askola

Apr 27
1/11 Why russia is losing the unprovoked war it started in Ukraine: a few key points to remember and use Image
2/11 If we had been told in March 2022 what the situation would be like over three years later, we would have been amazed and seen the current outcome as a significant Ukrainian victory and massive defeat for russia Image
3/11 russia started an unprovoked war on Ukraine that it cannot win due to unreachable stratetic goals. Combined with Trump’s lack of pressure on Putin, russia has no incentive to stop its invasion. By prolonging the war, russia avoids admitting a stratetic defeat Image
Read 11 tweets
Apr 26
1/8 A strategic defeat for russia: Trump’s latest peace proposal is not fair for Ukraine, but it also implies a strategic defeat for russia in this war Image
2/8 Strategic objectives are not the same for both sides in a war. russia’s initial and current strategic objectives are the ’demilitarization and denazification’ of Ukraine. russia wanted to force a ’regime change’ and failed. Ukraine won’t become a satellite state of russia Image
3/8 Ukraine is now more militarized and sovereign than ever. russia’s influence has waned due to the war. Trump’s unfair peace proposal would only solidify Ukraine’s sovereignty and militarization, marking a strategic victory for Ukraine and strategic defeat for russia Image
Read 8 tweets
Apr 25
1/7 Ukraine’s defense industry is not operating at full capacity. What are we waiting for to place enough orders to reach full capacity? Europe, wake up! Image
2/7 Europe loves making excuses. We claim we can’t send more aid because our stockpiles are low, yet we don’t place orders to replenish them. If we don’t want to send our own equipment, we can always order from Ukraine’s industry Image
3/7 Ukraine’s defense industry is formidable, producing weapons quickly and at a low cost. It’s the best bang for your buck, and Ukraine knows how to use them effectively. This also helps Ukraine become less dependent on its allies Image
Read 7 tweets
Apr 25
1/4 russia is losing the unprovoked war it started and has been fighting for nothing for the last three years. The fact that Trump’s peace proposal is more favorable to Ukraine than the 2022 Istanbul draft proves this Image
2/4 russia is losing the war, now occupying about 19% of Ukraine compared to 30% in March 2022. The fact that the Istanbul draft was worse for Ukraine than Trump’s current proposal shows russia has fought for nothing all this time. What a waste! Pathetic! Image
3/4 The deal Trump is offering to Ukraine is better than one in Istanbul, but it is still unfair. The war is likely to continue, and Europe needs to make long-term commitments of aid to Ukraine to give it more leverage in the negotiations Image
Read 4 tweets
Apr 23
1/17 Europe is already at war. It’s high time we stop ignoring this reality! Image
2/17 Most Europeans are divided between those who know how serious the situation is but prefer not to think about it too much, and those who don’t know what a war is. It’s time they learn, and high time we all admit to ourselves that we are at war with russia Image
3/17 Some have been criticized in Europe for saying that we are at war, but they were right. There are many forms of war, and russia is imposing several of them on Europe Image
Read 17 tweets
Apr 18
1/7 Failure Unlimited: russia has suffered 900,000 total casualties, expanded NATO, militarized Ukraine, and ruined its own economy, while reducing its control from about 30% of Ukraine in March 2022 to roughly 19% now. Look at the maps and witness the catastrophe! Image
2/7 russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has marked its most significant failure during Putin’s reign. Not only has russia failed in its invasion, but it has also paid a huge price on many levels Image
3/7 In March 2022, russia occupied approximately 30% of Ukraine, but over three years later, it now occupies only 19%. This reduction has come at the expense of 900,000 russian casualties, ruined demographics, and a devastated economy. Pathetic! Image
Read 7 tweets

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