Joni Askola Profile picture
Aug 15, 2024 9 tweets 4 min read Read on X
1/9 Lessons learned: On day 10 of the Kursk operation, russia is still struggling to stabilize the front, while Ukraine continues to advance. It is clear that Ukraine has incorporated many lessons from its previous counteroffensives and incursions. Image
2/9 Ukraine has evidently learned from its past counteroffensives and incursions. Being able to analyze mistakes and rectify them is crucial, and this serves as a prime example of that. Image
3/9 The Kursk operation is in several ways reminiscent of the Kharkiv counteroffensive. The atmosphere is similar, as both were unexpected and rapid offensives that took the russians by surprise when they were not anticipating an attack. Image
4/9 In comparison to the Kharkiv counteroffensive, which was quite successful but executed with limited equipment and manpower, the momentum faded quickly. It will be intriguing to observe whether a similar outcome occurs in Kursk. Image
5/9 In contrast to the 2023 counteroffensive, this one was much less anticipated, featured significantly better operational security, was more surprising, and took place in more favorable terrain. Overall, it simply makes much more sense. Image
6/9 Electronic warfare has greatly aided Ukraine in countering russian FPV drones in this instance, unlike during the summer offensive in 2023. Image
7/9 This was also evident in Krynky, where russia claimed it was unable to deploy drones due to Ukrainian electronic warfare when the Ukrainians crossed the river. The experiences from Krynky and the rapid incursions into russia are also benefiting Ukraine now. Image
8/9 Ukraine has assessed what was effective and what was not in the past, applying those insights to initiate the operation in Kursk. The initial phases have been highly successful. Let's hope that the current and upcoming phases continue to perform equally well. Image

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More from @joni_askola

Oct 16
1/5 Ukraine has intensified its strikes and has now started hitting Russia’s power grid.

Russia has targeted Ukraine’s grid for years.

How will this shift impact the war and how Russians see it? Image
2/5 Both sides are fully committed to long-range strikes.

These are now the fastest way to shift momentum and accelerate the end of the war.

Ukraine is targeting oil refineries, defense production, and military infrastructure.

Russia targets everything, including civilians Image
3/5 Striking Russia’s power grid serves two goals.

It may deter Russia from hitting Ukraine’s grid, although that is unlikely.

And it brings the war home to ordinary Russians.

That pressure could change how the war is viewed inside Russia Image
Read 5 tweets
Oct 15
1/6 Russia and Ukraine are in a race against time.

Ground movements now matter less than long-range strikes.

The side that scales up missile and drone production faster will win this phase of the war, and it will be Ukraine.

Russia is in deep trouble Image
2/6 Ukraine has intensified its strike campaign in recent months.

Russia has too. Geran production is at record highs.

But Russia relies heavily on Shaheds, and Ukraine will eventually hit the Yelabuga drone factory Image
3/6 Ukraine is now producing cruise missiles with longer range and larger payloads.

Its strikes have been effective, hitting refineries and key infrastructure.

With US intel support, Ukraine is planning more. It hopes to get missiles from the US, paid by Europe Image
Read 6 tweets
Oct 15
1/7 Finland has the most advanced total defense model in Europe.

It is not just for war. It helps in any crisis.

Government, businesses, civil society, and citizens all have roles.

Europe should treat this as a benchmark and start building toward it, not merely on paper Image
2/7 Every big building has a bomb shelter.

Every sector has a contingency plan.

Every citizen knows what to do.

Finland’s model is built on realism, not illusions. It is quiet, practical, cheap, and effective Image
3/7 The military is backed by a trained reserve, strategic stockpiles, and legal obligations for civil preparedness.

No other European country has this level of integration.

It is the most complete deterrence system on the continent Image
Read 7 tweets
Oct 14
1/5 Zelensky has just revoked the citizenship of Odesa Mayor Hennadiy Trukhanov.

The reason? He allegedly holds a Russian passport.

If confirmed, this could finally bring an end to the reign of one of Ukraine’s most corrupt and controversial leaders Image
2/5 Trukhanov has ruled Odesa since 2014.

He’s been linked to organized crime, smuggling networks, and major corruption cases.

He was arrested in 2023 for embezzling $2.5 million in a fake real estate deal. The case is still dragging on Image
3/5 He’s also been accused of blocking military aid, delaying defense spending, and making pro-Russian statements.

While Odesa was under threat, he did little to help.

For years, he treated the city like his personal empire Image
Read 5 tweets
Oct 14
1/5 With Gaza partially settled for now, Trump is shifting focus.

Zelensky is meeting him this week.

Ukraine wants Tomahawk missiles. Trump sounds more supportive than ever.

But don’t get fooled Image
2/5 Yes, Tomahawks would help.

But there are only a few ground launchers available.

Unless sent in large numbers, they won’t change the war.

Even so, a few would be a powerful signal Image
3/5 Trump has sounded promising lately.

But he hasn’t sent new aid. Hasn’t added sanctions. And just thanked Putin for saying he deserved a Nobel Peace Prize.

This is who he is Image
Read 5 tweets
Oct 13
1/5 China spent years quietly building influence in Europe through trade, technology, propaganda, and diplomacy. It worked for China.

But backing Russia’s war in Ukraine was a strategic mistake.

Europe is now rethinking its relationship with Beijing Image
2/5 China refused to condemn the invasion, boosted Russian energy exports, helped dodge sanctions, sold machinery, sent proxy aid, shared intel, and echoed anti-West narratives.

It didn’t go unnoticed.

Europe now sees China not just as a competitor but as a threat to stability Image
3/5 The Netherlands just seized a Chinese-owned chipmaker.

Germany and France are tightening tech controls.

The EU is investing in supply chain independence and defense coordination.

China’s influence strategy is being dismantled bit by bit Image
Read 5 tweets

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