Joni Askola Profile picture
Aug 15, 2024 9 tweets 4 min read Read on X
1/9 Lessons learned: On day 10 of the Kursk operation, russia is still struggling to stabilize the front, while Ukraine continues to advance. It is clear that Ukraine has incorporated many lessons from its previous counteroffensives and incursions. Image
2/9 Ukraine has evidently learned from its past counteroffensives and incursions. Being able to analyze mistakes and rectify them is crucial, and this serves as a prime example of that. Image
3/9 The Kursk operation is in several ways reminiscent of the Kharkiv counteroffensive. The atmosphere is similar, as both were unexpected and rapid offensives that took the russians by surprise when they were not anticipating an attack. Image
4/9 In comparison to the Kharkiv counteroffensive, which was quite successful but executed with limited equipment and manpower, the momentum faded quickly. It will be intriguing to observe whether a similar outcome occurs in Kursk. Image
5/9 In contrast to the 2023 counteroffensive, this one was much less anticipated, featured significantly better operational security, was more surprising, and took place in more favorable terrain. Overall, it simply makes much more sense. Image
6/9 Electronic warfare has greatly aided Ukraine in countering russian FPV drones in this instance, unlike during the summer offensive in 2023. Image
7/9 This was also evident in Krynky, where russia claimed it was unable to deploy drones due to Ukrainian electronic warfare when the Ukrainians crossed the river. The experiences from Krynky and the rapid incursions into russia are also benefiting Ukraine now. Image
8/9 Ukraine has assessed what was effective and what was not in the past, applying those insights to initiate the operation in Kursk. The initial phases have been highly successful. Let's hope that the current and upcoming phases continue to perform equally well. Image

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More from @joni_askola

Apr 27
1/8 The debate over Finland buying David’s Sling from Israel is loud and polarized.

To understand it, we must separate valid concerns from harsh military realities.

Here is why the decision was made and what the critics often miss: Image
2/8 Why buy it?

Our NASAMS batteries cannot stop ballistic missiles and have limited range.

To deter a neighbor like Russia, Finland needs to shoot down advanced threats.

We cannot afford to leave our skies vulnerable Image
3/8 Fair criticism exists.

It is valid to point out Israel's war crimes, illegal border expansions, and lack of support for Ukraine.

Israel is a complex partner with different interests.

These are real moral and strategic risks for Finland that we must acknowledge Image
Read 8 tweets
Apr 24
1/5 Trump has made the West incredibly vulnerable.

With the US distracted in the Middle East and munition stockpiles running low, Western deterrence is weakened.

A nightmare scenario of China and Russia launching coordinated attacks is forming.

Europe must step up faster Image
2/5 The blame for this weak deterrence falls heavily on Trump, and on Europe for not doing enough.

Trump is an unreliable, chaotic, and fundamentally weak leader.

His erratic approach to global security and the failed war in Iran have weakened the West Image
3/5 A nightmare scenario is actively forming right now.

Imagine if Russia and China coordinate to make their moves simultaneously.

With Washington absorbed by the Middle East and lacking the missiles for multiple wars, autocrats have a terrifying open window to strike Image
Read 5 tweets
Apr 22
1/7 Palantir’s manifesto is a terrifying glimpse into tech-authoritarianism.

They aren't just selling software, but dictating global morality.

Who do they think they are?

Who elected Alex Karp and Peter Thiel to run the world?

Europe should stay away from Palantir Image
2/7 The manifesto openly calls for an AI arms race.

Karp claims the atomic age is over and the new era of deterrence is built on AI weapons.

They argue adversaries will build them anyway so we must do it first.

A tech firm is openly lobbying for an algorithmic cold war Image
3/7 Palantir demands a universal draft so everyone shares the risk of war, and calls to undo the pacifism of Germany and Japan.

Even if you agree, why does a tech company have a say?

A data broker shouldn't be rewriting global security and enforcing conscription Image
Read 7 tweets
Apr 21
1/5 You want to minimize casualties and end Russia's war on Ukraine faster?

The only way to do that is to provide Ukraine with more long-range strike capabilities, including both Ukrainian and European ones.

Delaying only costs more innocent lives Image
2/5 We need to fund more Ukrainian missiles and drones and help them scale up production immediately.

At the same time we must produce more missiles of our own to hand over.

We absolutely need to step up the production of cruise missiles like the Storm Shadow Image
3/5 We must mass produce cheap cruise missiles like the American ERAM program.

We should get creative too.

We could pre-order Ukrainian weapons for our own militaries, let Ukraine use them to fight today, and only take delivery after the war is won Image
Read 5 tweets
Apr 13
1/6 Will Orbán's defeat stop the rise of illiberalism in the West?

His fall is a massive geopolitical earthquake, but to understand its true global impact, we have to look at why he actually lost Image
2/6 Orbán did not lose because of his pro-Russian, treasonous stances.

He lost mostly because his domestic agenda completely failed.

Hungarians simply had enough of low economic growth, high inflation, and constant lies.

He promised a lot and failed to deliver Image
3/6 Even his signature social programs failed.

His highly publicized, expensive birth rate policies were a total failure.

He built a regime on the promise of national greatness, but regular citizens were left paying the price for his economic ruin Image
Read 6 tweets
Apr 9
1/8 The US is facing a strategic defeat in Iran despite "winning" militarily.

Terrible planning and a complete mismatch between military action and strategic goals led to this outcome, but the war may not be over.

A thread on where things actually stand 🧵 Image
2/8 Trump's planning was horrible.

The war started two months too late to help the Iranian people.

He had no troops ready to be deployed on the ground.

What did he think he would accomplish with just a bombing campaign? Image
3/8 You cannot win this kind of war and cause a real regime change without boots on the ground or without actively helping Iran's opposition.

Instead, we saw extremely inconsistent messaging from the administration.

Bombing alone was never going to bring down the regime Image
Read 8 tweets

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