Joni Askola Profile picture
Aug 15, 2024 9 tweets 4 min read Read on X
1/9 Lessons learned: On day 10 of the Kursk operation, russia is still struggling to stabilize the front, while Ukraine continues to advance. It is clear that Ukraine has incorporated many lessons from its previous counteroffensives and incursions. Image
2/9 Ukraine has evidently learned from its past counteroffensives and incursions. Being able to analyze mistakes and rectify them is crucial, and this serves as a prime example of that. Image
3/9 The Kursk operation is in several ways reminiscent of the Kharkiv counteroffensive. The atmosphere is similar, as both were unexpected and rapid offensives that took the russians by surprise when they were not anticipating an attack. Image
4/9 In comparison to the Kharkiv counteroffensive, which was quite successful but executed with limited equipment and manpower, the momentum faded quickly. It will be intriguing to observe whether a similar outcome occurs in Kursk. Image
5/9 In contrast to the 2023 counteroffensive, this one was much less anticipated, featured significantly better operational security, was more surprising, and took place in more favorable terrain. Overall, it simply makes much more sense. Image
6/9 Electronic warfare has greatly aided Ukraine in countering russian FPV drones in this instance, unlike during the summer offensive in 2023. Image
7/9 This was also evident in Krynky, where russia claimed it was unable to deploy drones due to Ukrainian electronic warfare when the Ukrainians crossed the river. The experiences from Krynky and the rapid incursions into russia are also benefiting Ukraine now. Image
8/9 Ukraine has assessed what was effective and what was not in the past, applying those insights to initiate the operation in Kursk. The initial phases have been highly successful. Let's hope that the current and upcoming phases continue to perform equally well. Image

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More from @joni_askola

Aug 16
1/6 Why hasn’t Europe stepped up to help Ukraine win—after 3.5 years of full-scale war?

Because most Europeans are weak cowards who hope the war will go away if they just look away.

Time to look in the mirror—and finally step up👇Image
2/6 The war in Ukraine has lasted over 11 years.
For 3.5 years, it’s been full-scale.
russia is invading Europe.
It commits daily war crimes, abducts children, and denies Ukraine’s right to exist.
And yet, most Europeans prefer not to think about it Image
3/6 russia is all in.
Europe is doing the minimum.
For 11 years, we’ve managed escalation instead of stopping it.
We hoped the US would take care of it.
But now Trump is in power—and the Alaska Talks showed he won’t Image
Read 6 tweets
Aug 16
1/9 🇺🇸🇷🇺 The Alaska Talks are over.
What are the conclusions?
No ceasefire. No progress.
But Putin and Trump both walked away happy.
Here’s why that’s a problem—and what it means for Ukraine and the West🧵👇Image
2/9 The summit lasted just 3 hours.
No meal. No deal.
No ceasefire. No press questions.
Putin made zero concessions.
But he got what he wanted:
📸 Red carpet treatment
📸 No Zelensky
📸 Normalized US-russia relations Image
3/9 Trump didn’t get anything Ukraine, Europe, or the US wanted.
But he got what he wanted:
• A show
• A spotlight
• Pictures with his idol, Putin
• Pressure taken off russia
• To keep his role as “mediator” in a war he won’t end Image
Read 9 tweets
Aug 15
1/7 Alaska Talks: russia has less leverage and is in a worse position today than it was in Istanbul in 2022.

Yet its demands remain almost unchanged.

And peace? Still nowhere in sight.
Here’s why 👇Image
2/7 russia has never offered Ukraine a serious peace deal during the full-scale war.

Why? Because it hasn’t reached its strategic goals.

Ending the war now would mean losing.

So it keeps demanding surrender—and calling it “peace” Image
3/7 In Istanbul 2022, russia occupied nearly 30% of Ukraine and was still advancing fast.

Today, it holds less than 20%.
It’s suffered over a million casualties.

And it still hasn’t captured a single Ukrainian regional capital. 0/23.

That’s not leverage. That’s failure Image
Read 7 tweets
Aug 13
1/6 ❌ Why russia keeps making unrealistic demands to end the war in Ukraine — and why it can’t afford peace

The truth is simple, but brutal👇Image
2/6 Why does russia keep making unrealistic demands to end the war in Ukraine?

Because it’s losing. Strategically.

And it can’t afford to end the war because of that. As simple as that.

Map: ISW Image
3/6 russia’s strategic goals — ”demilitarization and demilitarization” — were never vague.

They mean government overthrow.

A pro-russian puppet government. New constitution. russian troops on Ukrainian soil.

Today, russia is further from that goal than in March 2022 Image
Read 6 tweets
Aug 13
1/5 Appeasement doesn’t work on people like Trump

European leaders are repeating the same mistake they made with Putin — and are still making with Xi.

Appeasing aggressive, authoritarian, imperialist leaders doesn’t calm them. It emboldens themImage
2/5 Authoritarians don’t respect weakness.

They take what’s easy. They test limits.

They respond not to kindness, but to strength.

Putin, Xi, and Trump follow this pattern. Appeasement invites escalation. Firmness earns respect Image
3/5 Trump thrives on bluffing.

He pushes until someone pushes back.

Trying to please him only makes things worse.

That doesn’t mean we need aggression — but we do need firmness. Being tougher works better than tiptoeing Image
Read 5 tweets
Aug 13
1/7 Unprovoked — How russia lied to justify its invasions of Ukraine in 2014 and 2022

This thread breaks down why both wars were unprovoked — and how russia had to lie to justify them👇Image
2/7 The 2014 invasion: a war of opportunity, not defense

Ukraine didn’t threaten russia. It was undergoing a democratic revolution — Euromaidan. Putin saw Ukraine slipping away, seized Crimea, and fueled war in Donbas. No NATO threat. No genocide of russian speakers. Just liesImage
3/7 russia’s 2014 lie: ”protecting russian speakers”

Putin claimed they were under threat. But russian was widely spoken — even by Ukraine’s leaders. There was no persecution. The real fear? Ukraine choosing Europe over MoscowImage
Read 7 tweets

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