Joni Askola Profile picture
Aug 15, 2024 9 tweets 4 min read Read on X
1/9 Lessons learned: On day 10 of the Kursk operation, russia is still struggling to stabilize the front, while Ukraine continues to advance. It is clear that Ukraine has incorporated many lessons from its previous counteroffensives and incursions. Image
2/9 Ukraine has evidently learned from its past counteroffensives and incursions. Being able to analyze mistakes and rectify them is crucial, and this serves as a prime example of that. Image
3/9 The Kursk operation is in several ways reminiscent of the Kharkiv counteroffensive. The atmosphere is similar, as both were unexpected and rapid offensives that took the russians by surprise when they were not anticipating an attack. Image
4/9 In comparison to the Kharkiv counteroffensive, which was quite successful but executed with limited equipment and manpower, the momentum faded quickly. It will be intriguing to observe whether a similar outcome occurs in Kursk. Image
5/9 In contrast to the 2023 counteroffensive, this one was much less anticipated, featured significantly better operational security, was more surprising, and took place in more favorable terrain. Overall, it simply makes much more sense. Image
6/9 Electronic warfare has greatly aided Ukraine in countering russian FPV drones in this instance, unlike during the summer offensive in 2023. Image
7/9 This was also evident in Krynky, where russia claimed it was unable to deploy drones due to Ukrainian electronic warfare when the Ukrainians crossed the river. The experiences from Krynky and the rapid incursions into russia are also benefiting Ukraine now. Image
8/9 Ukraine has assessed what was effective and what was not in the past, applying those insights to initiate the operation in Kursk. The initial phases have been highly successful. Let's hope that the current and upcoming phases continue to perform equally well. Image

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More from @joni_askola

Dec 8
1/9 Europe must face reality:

The US under Trump is waging a hybrid war against us, siding with our enemies, and turning from ally to adversary Image
2/9 Trump’s new national security strategy and his administration’s actions prove it.

They are not protecting Europe.

They are undermining us Image
3/9 They back anti-EU, pro-Russia, pro-China far-right parties.

They interfere politically to sabotage us and try to throw Ukraine under the bus while siding with Putin Image
Read 9 tweets
Dec 2
1/9 Ukraine cannot win this war by only playing fair when Russia never does.

Russia has more men, more money, and zero limits.

To end the war faster, Ukraine must go more asymmetric and bring the fight deeper into Russia Image
2/9 Why is this needed?

Just defending gives Russia no reason to stop.

Trading land for time is smart, but not enough. Ukraine needs to hit Russia where it hurts.

It already does with strikes, but it must do even more to show the world it still has cards to play Image
3/9 Ukraine’s current two-part strategy is to trade land for time and crush Russia’s economy with deep strikes.

It is good, but it needs acceleration.

The war must become even more costly, even faster, for Russia Image
Read 9 tweets
Dec 1
1/6 Belgium is helping Russia in its war against Ukraine.

How? It is the final obstacle preventing Ukraine from accessing Russia’s frozen assets.

Does Belgium want to be remembered as Russia’s helper? Image
2/6 Belgium is still blocking Russia’s frozen assets from being transferred to Ukraine, constantly finding new excuses to help Russia.

Does Belgium want to be remembered as the country that made Ukraine and Europe lose to Russia? Image
3/6 Belgium has been blocking this for months. It is the only country left doing so.

First, it used legal fears as an excuse. Europe worked to address those concerns, even with help from Norway. After that, Belgium's PM De Wever found new excuses, and Trump provided them to him Image
Read 6 tweets
Nov 27
1/6 How should the world look according to Curtis Yarvin, the ideological father of JD Vance, Peter Thiel, and other powerful figures in the US?

And why should we be worried? 🧵 Image
2/6 Thiel, Musk, and their circle have gained enormous influence in the US. They helped pick Trump’s VP and installed JD Vance in that role.

These far-right oligarchs are isolationist, pro-Russia, pro-China, and hostile to democracy.

Their guiding thinker is Curtis Yarvin Image
3/6 Yarvin’s core belief: democracy is a mistake.

He argues freedom creates chaos and inefficiency.

His solution? Replace democratic governments with authoritarian “CEO style” rule, where one leader runs a country like a corporation Image
Read 6 tweets
Nov 27
1/5 Do Belgium and the rest of the EU want even more Ukrainian blood on their hands?

If not, release Russia’s frozen assets now.

Repost this thread if you agree!

@Bart_DeWever @JanJambon @EuroclearGroup @vonderleyen @kajakallas @EmmanuelMacron @_FriedrichMerz @ZelenskyyUa Image
2/5 Russia’s full-scale war on Ukraine has lasted almost 4 years.

Europe is still hesitating to release frozen Russian assets.

Why? Because profit opportunities and legal fears outweigh the survival of Ukraine and Europe itself Image
3/5 This is existential.

If Belgium’s legal concerns are legitimate, then find a solution fast. Much faster than what we are doing now.

Delay means more destruction, more escalation, and more Ukrainian blood.

We are not doing enough. Let’s at least get this right Image
Read 5 tweets
Nov 27
1/10 The Russian narrative is starting to collapse.

For years, Moscow pushed the idea that Ukraine was doomed and Russia unstoppable. That narrative is collapsing under the weight of reality.

Here’s why Russia is failing strategically despite tactical gains👇 Image
2/10 Russia’s goals were clear: overthrow Ukraine’s government, install a puppet regime, rewrite its constitution, and embed permanent Russian military control.

Nearly four years later, none of this has happened. And it’s far from happening Image
3/10 Instead, Russia is still fighting for Donbas and is further from its strategic objectives than in March 2022.

That is not a tactical setback. It is a strategic failure.

The Kremlin started this war with goals it cannot reach Image
Read 10 tweets

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