I am beginning to think we are seeing Russian locomotive operators abandon their engines on the lines approaching Kursk Oblast.
Guys get stuck in train traffic jams, then hear directly, or from engine ahead, there is artillery fire or sabotage groups. Then they leave.
Russian Rail Seizure🧵
1/
If this is true, the train congestion from these abandonments will be visible from space.
Remember, the Kursk fighting for Russia is an "ATO" not an "SMO." ATO = Anti-Terrorism Operation
This means the FSB and not the Russian military is nominally in
2/
...charge of FSB Border Guard, Army, Rosvigardia, police & local militia units.
The problem is there is no practiced chain of command between these formations and Russian railway employees are not under SMO military discipline/punishments'.
3/
ATO's means Russian train crew can bug out with few/none of the repercussions of an SMO.
This would change if Putin made this Ukrainian incursion a full on "Defense of the Motherland" war.
However, Putin seems to fear for the stability of his regime if he does that.
4/
Whatever is causing it -- train crew running , maintenance failure or administrative chaos -- rail movement into and out of Kursk has seizing up
This has prevented the Russian artillery, its "God of War," from entering the lists en mass after a week of fighting.
5/5
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It requires the least amount of special launch infrastructure and training to use while breaking down into a small enough package that something like an SUV can move and recover it.
Most US drones fail this logistical capability test. 2/
Sailplane/compound helicopter drone designs gives you the ability to send small, high value, packages deep into enemy territory for all sorts of uses.
Well well, the Russian railway system collapse I've been talking about since October 2022 has arrived.
True, less because of rail truck cassette bearing shortages than the fact Ukraine's Kursk offensive has collapsed the Russian railway monopoly's administrative controls...
This is something I went deeply into in an April 2022 contractor logistical support thread to demonstrate the Biden Administration was slow rolling aid to Ukraine for "Escalation Management" reasons.
The Biden Administration is still at it in 2024 2/
These complaints about RuAF casualties being utterly horrible and beyond anything this Russian medical worker has seen tracks with the latest column from James Dunnigan's Strategypage dot com
The two key railway marshalling yards for the Russian Army in occupied Ukraine are in Belgorod and Rostov on Don.
And Belgorod railway marshalling yard just got cut off from the north.
Rerouting train traffic like this hasn't happened in Russia since 1941.
2/
This Reddit map of AFU advances indicates the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant (NPP), upper right, may soon be isolated from the Russian power grid to points south.
Given the Rostov on Don NPP lost one of two reactors to a maintenance casualty.