Trent Telenko Profile picture
Aug 15 5 tweets 1 min read Read on X
I am beginning to think we are seeing Russian locomotive operators abandon their engines on the lines approaching Kursk Oblast.

Guys get stuck in train traffic jams, then hear directly, or from engine ahead, there is artillery fire or sabotage groups. Then they leave.

Russian Rail Seizure🧵
1/
If this is true, the train congestion from these abandonments will be visible from space.

Remember, the Kursk fighting for Russia is an "ATO" not an "SMO." ATO = Anti-Terrorism Operation

This means the FSB and not the Russian military is nominally in
2/
...charge of FSB Border Guard, Army, Rosvigardia, police & local militia units.

The problem is there is no practiced chain of command between these formations and Russian railway employees are not under SMO military discipline/punishments'.

3/
ATO's means Russian train crew can bug out with few/none of the repercussions of an SMO.

This would change if Putin made this Ukrainian incursion a full on "Defense of the Motherland" war.

However, Putin seems to fear for the stability of his regime if he does that.

4/
Whatever is causing it -- train crew running , maintenance failure or administrative chaos -- rail movement into and out of Kursk has seizing up

This has prevented the Russian artillery, its "God of War," from entering the lists en mass after a week of fighting.

5/5

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More from @TrentTelenko

Aug 14
This picture that @sambendett dropped with the article link points out an engineering fact I've been pounding on for years.

The sailplane/compound helicopter drone design is the optimum one for attritable intelligence surveillance & reconnaissance (ISR) & cargo drones.

1/
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It requires the least amount of special launch infrastructure and training to use while breaking down into a small enough package that something like an SUV can move and recover it.

Most US drones fail this logistical capability test.
2/

Image
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Sailplane/compound helicopter drone designs gives you the ability to send small, high value, packages deep into enemy territory for all sorts of uses.

3/
Read 6 tweets
Aug 14
Well well, the Russian railway system collapse I've been talking about since October 2022 has arrived.

True, less because of rail truck cassette bearing shortages than the fact Ukraine's Kursk offensive has collapsed the Russian railway monopoly's administrative controls...

1/
...but it is here nonetheless.

RuAF military trains are heading in every direction in Western Russia and occupied Ukraine at the same time.

We are here😈⬇️


2/
Ukraine's Kursk offensive made a Russian economy suffering from rail transportation double pneumonia to do a 400 meter sprint in winter.

Now it is collapsing😈

3/
Read 6 tweets
Aug 13
Ukraine is seeking retired F-16 pilots to fly its planes in a 21st century repeat of WW2's Claire Chennault's Flying Tigers

1/
mil.in.ua/en/news/ukrain…
This is something I went deeply into in an April 2022 contractor logistical support thread to demonstrate the Biden Administration was slow rolling aid to Ukraine for "Escalation Management" reasons.

The Biden Administration is still at it in 2024
2/
The Biden Admin. went out of its way to specify only "Ukrainian born" pilots can crew NATO F-16's & made PSU pilot training to a trickle.

It's why the US Senate has called out the Biden NSC on a "De-Escalation clause" preventing Ukrainian dual citizenship "Flying Tigers"
3/3 Image
Read 4 tweets
Aug 13
I've written a lot about WW2 war balloons used by the UK and Japanese for strategic bombing as well as barrage balloons.

The Ukrainian war balloon missions that Russian social media is talking about rely on a trick Russia taught Ukraine in 2023.

Adaptation in War🧵
1/
How does a Ukrainian balloon deep in Russia get its data out?

Especially if it is below the radio line of sight?

Some would use big solar panels and batteries to power a Starlink terminal. It's what the USA does to make a mini-copy...


2/
...of a Chinese spy balloon.

That is, a scale model of something like this:



3/
Read 9 tweets
Aug 11
These complaints about RuAF casualties being utterly horrible and beyond anything this Russian medical worker has seen tracks with the latest column from James Dunnigan's Strategypage dot com

Patterns of Drone War Casualties🧵
1/
Dunnigan's report is not surprising. 

There is a whole lot going on accounting for the increased lethality of small AFU drones.

The Russians have a trifecta of institutional collapse that makes their troops lamost defenseless versus small drones. 

2/
strategypage.com/htmw/htmoral/a…
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First, the RuAF have no thorax ballistic body armor for about 95% of their troops and certainly no class IV ceramic plates to spread out impact shock.

3/ Image
Read 20 tweets
Aug 9
The Russian Army railway logistics are now in worse shape than when Wagner's revolt over ran Rostov on Don's railway marshaling yard.

Per @Schizointel

>>Ukraine now has physical access and control over the
>>Lgov-Belgorod line
>>Lgov-Vorozbha line

Summer 1940 redux🧵
1/
The two key railway marshalling yards for the Russian Army in occupied Ukraine are in Belgorod and Rostov on Don.

And Belgorod railway marshalling yard just got cut off from the north.

Rerouting train traffic like this hasn't happened in Russia since 1941.

2/
Image
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This Reddit map of AFU advances indicates the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant (NPP), upper right, may soon be isolated from the Russian power grid to points south.

Given the Rostov on Don NPP lost one of two reactors to a maintenance casualty.

3/
reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVi…
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Read 15 tweets

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