Thread by @Prune602

‼️ Broad overview of impacts to Russian Railways as a result of Ukraine’s Special Kursk Operation

This is just a very basic guideline of things to look for, expect, and think about, when considering new information you may receive.

Think of it as a primer for critical thinking. Because the impacts could go further than you expect. (And reversing a lot of these things takes time too)

1. Ukraine holding Russian Railway assets & infrastructure denies Russia access to those resources.

They may be captured and taken to Ukraine or they maybe destroyed (either by Ukraine OR Russia)

Either way, those assets are temporary or permanently denied to Russia

2. Russia’s Defensive response to Ukraine’s invasion will impact Railways in a variety of ways

2.1 The Russia’s efforts to rapidly transport defensive assets & personnel will take up railway capacity and they may be shipped a significant distance

These shipments are supposed to take priority over nearly everything else (but this is Russia, rules aren’t always followed). This is similar to an ambulance getting priority on the road.

But this isn’t a road so there are some additional challenges.

First of all, the railway is overextended. That means that currently the demand for shipping capacity is much greater than Russian Railways is able to provide.

That means that not only do they have to figure out how to move everything else out of the way of the high priority load, they also have find a locomotive to move it.

That means that the locomotive that’s already in use has to either finish delivering the load its currently moving OR find somewhere to stash it THEN it can go deal with the priority load.

It’s like doing one of these puzzles. 😂

Except, from reports it doesn’t sound like their computer software is able to provide as much support as expected to help sort this problem out, so…even harder!

So you can imagine how much the NORMAL freight movement will suffer as a result of Russian Railways trying to figure things out

But also all the (now) normal chaos is still occurring. Like derailments, partisan attacks, traffic jams in the Far East, etc.

2.2 Russia has or likely will make efforts to deny Ukraine access to further railway infrastructure.

It does not matter whether Ukraine actually would or would not use the railway infrastructure in Russia for the further movement of troops deeper into Russia.

The possibility exists that they *could* do it using captured Russian Railways equipment. They can just load up in the Russian territory they currently hold.

Russia will not want this option to be available to them, forcing them to act.

Think of it like Russia painting those planes on tarmacs thinking it will fool our satellites…probably because it fools THEIR satellites.

Russia relies heavily on the Railroad for military use. They’ll be think about.

Note: In many cases there ARE NO ALTERNATIVES TO RAIL in 🇷🇺

Russian efforts to deny and block the railway from Ukrainian forces will expand the amount railway infrastructure that is denied to Russian commerce.

There will be the area Ukraine holds PLUS the area Russia dedicates to block Ukraine

And Russian railways has to help with any Russian fortifications required and has to figure out how rework all their logistics and other critical obligations without these assets.

Food and gas still needs to be delivered.

3. There may be civilian impacts

3.1 Mass migration does cause challenges. Russian railways has had to make way for extra passenger trains to deal with evacuating civilians.

Some of these people aren’t going to be showing up to work, and that may have surprise repercussions

3.2 Psyops OR just normal reactions to events may add extra chaos.

For example;

Railway personnel don’t show up for work

A bank run

Fears of a contagious disease

Russians switch sides

4. Russian Railways Can’t “catch up”

All of the shipments and commerce that is foregone as a result of the Ukraine’s Special Kursk Operation will be an overall loss to the Russian economy.

This will result in less commerce and less revenue.

While some may believe that it will be insignificant overall there WILL BE an impact.

Note: I would argue that it’s too soon to determine just how big of an impact this will have to Russian Railways TOTAL loading. I’m curious to see August’s loading results.

Railway loading capacity was already shrinking BEFORE Kursk .

Remember, there doesn’t need to be a silver bullet, death by a thousand cuts works too. Eventually they add up. This counts

Overextending a largest country on earth is a valid offensive strategy

~ The End ~

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