Trent Telenko Profile picture
Aug 16 5 tweets 2 min read Read on X
This is where I get to laugh at US Army Field Artillery officers who claimed drones can't match the firepower of field artillery for point targets.

US Army Field Artillery Hubris 🧵
1/
Their Excalibur 155mm guided shell has a _6%_ hit rate in a GPS denied heavy jamming environment.

Meanwhile Baba Yaga drones have very heavily jamming resistant adcock antennas and kinematically operate above enemy main jamming beams to deliver PGM.


2/
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There is a physical reason why Excalibur can't operate in a heavy GPS jamming environment.

It is too small to have multiple CRPA antennas to create enough nulls against jamming.

And even GMLRS is having issues with Russian meaconing.

3/

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AFU Baba Yaga drones have demonstrated they have more firepower and more accuracy against point targets in a GPS denied, peer to peer, war than US Army 155mm tube artillery and sometimes even GMLRS.

This is when I throw my head back and laugh.
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More from @TrentTelenko

Aug 17
It's time for a Truck logistic thread on the Russian E105 N-S road traced on the map below.

Given the RuAF rail traffic seizure into and out of Kursk Oblast.

This road is the logistical "schwerpunkt," or center of gravity, for the Kursk offensive.

Schwerpunkt Blindness🧵
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Once the AFU get on the E105, the Belgorod garrison and everything South of it is toast for good logistical reasons.

This is a Kesselschlacht - kettle battle - on an operational scale.

2/
For reasons I went into in an earlier thread, the partially mechanized AFU truck logistics is lifting twice what Russian trucks can because AFU is using all terrain forklifts and pallets to load trucks.

3/

Read 23 tweets
Aug 16
We are now seeing anecdotal evidence of the logistical chaos on the Russian railways behind the front lines in Kherson & Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

RuAF shell usage there is down ~36%.

Russian logistical pipeline🧵

1/
ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/389…
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This reduction, as the article points out, is likely the result of lots of ammunition being diverted to the Kursk Oblast to fight the Ukrainian incursion.

The 'pipeline of supplies' to Kursk reduced that available in Kherson & Zaporizhzhia due to the rolling stock going elsewhere.

2/
Most OSINT, defense analyst and defense reporter accounts on X simply do not understand the concept of a logistical pipeline.

Particularly when it comes to to Russian animal labor logistics.

Mirror imaging US army truck logistics onto it fails every time.
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Read 23 tweets
Aug 15
I am beginning to think we are seeing Russian locomotive operators abandon their engines on the lines approaching Kursk Oblast.

Guys get stuck in train traffic jams, then hear directly, or from engine ahead, there is artillery fire or sabotage groups. Then they leave.

Russian Rail Seizure🧵
1/
If this is true, the train congestion from these abandonments will be visible from space.

Remember, the Kursk fighting for Russia is an "ATO" not an "SMO." ATO = Anti-Terrorism Operation

This means the FSB and not the Russian military is nominally in
2/
...charge of FSB Border Guard, Army, Rosvigardia, police & local militia units.

The problem is there is no practiced chain of command between these formations and Russian railway employees are not under SMO military discipline/punishments'.

3/
Read 5 tweets
Aug 14
This picture that @sambendett dropped with the article link points out an engineering fact I've been pounding on for years.

The sailplane/compound helicopter drone design is the optimum one for attritable intelligence surveillance & reconnaissance (ISR) & cargo drones.

1/
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It requires the least amount of special launch infrastructure and training to use while breaking down into a small enough package that something like an SUV can move and recover it.

Most US drones fail this logistical capability test.
2/

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Sailplane/compound helicopter drone designs gives you the ability to send small, high value, packages deep into enemy territory for all sorts of uses.

3/
Read 6 tweets
Aug 14
Well well, the Russian railway system collapse I've been talking about since October 2022 has arrived.

True, less because of rail truck cassette bearing shortages than the fact Ukraine's Kursk offensive has collapsed the Russian railway monopoly's administrative controls...

1/
...but it is here nonetheless.

RuAF military trains are heading in every direction in Western Russia and occupied Ukraine at the same time.

We are here😈⬇️


2/
Ukraine's Kursk offensive made a Russian economy suffering from rail transportation double pneumonia to do a 400 meter sprint in winter.

Now it is collapsing😈

3/
Read 6 tweets
Aug 13
Ukraine is seeking retired F-16 pilots to fly its planes in a 21st century repeat of WW2's Claire Chennault's Flying Tigers

1/
mil.in.ua/en/news/ukrain…
This is something I went deeply into in an April 2022 contractor logistical support thread to demonstrate the Biden Administration was slow rolling aid to Ukraine for "Escalation Management" reasons.

The Biden Administration is still at it in 2024
2/
The Biden Admin. went out of its way to specify only "Ukrainian born" pilots can crew NATO F-16's & made PSU pilot training to a trickle.

It's why the US Senate has called out the Biden NSC on a "De-Escalation clause" preventing Ukrainian dual citizenship "Flying Tigers"
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Read 4 tweets

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