Their Excalibur 155mm guided shell has a _6%_ hit rate in a GPS denied heavy jamming environment.
Meanwhile Baba Yaga drones have very heavily jamming resistant adcock antennas and kinematically operate above enemy main jamming beams to deliver PGM.
AFU Baba Yaga drones have demonstrated they have more firepower and more accuracy against point targets in a GPS denied, peer to peer, war than US Army 155mm tube artillery and sometimes even GMLRS.
This is when I throw my head back and laugh. 4/4
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It's time for a Truck logistic thread on the Russian E105 N-S road traced on the map below.
Given the RuAF rail traffic seizure into and out of Kursk Oblast.
This road is the logistical "schwerpunkt," or center of gravity, for the Kursk offensive.
Schwerpunkt Blindness🧵 1/
Once the AFU get on the E105, the Belgorod garrison and everything South of it is toast for good logistical reasons.
This is a Kesselschlacht - kettle battle - on an operational scale.
2/
For reasons I went into in an earlier thread, the partially mechanized AFU truck logistics is lifting twice what Russian trucks can because AFU is using all terrain forklifts and pallets to load trucks.
This reduction, as the article points out, is likely the result of lots of ammunition being diverted to the Kursk Oblast to fight the Ukrainian incursion.
The 'pipeline of supplies' to Kursk reduced that available in Kherson & Zaporizhzhia due to the rolling stock going elsewhere.
2/
Most OSINT, defense analyst and defense reporter accounts on X simply do not understand the concept of a logistical pipeline.
Particularly when it comes to to Russian animal labor logistics.
Mirror imaging US army truck logistics onto it fails every time. 3/
I am beginning to think we are seeing Russian locomotive operators abandon their engines on the lines approaching Kursk Oblast.
Guys get stuck in train traffic jams, then hear directly, or from engine ahead, there is artillery fire or sabotage groups. Then they leave.
Russian Rail Seizure🧵
1/
If this is true, the train congestion from these abandonments will be visible from space.
Remember, the Kursk fighting for Russia is an "ATO" not an "SMO." ATO = Anti-Terrorism Operation
This means the FSB and not the Russian military is nominally in
2/
...charge of FSB Border Guard, Army, Rosvigardia, police & local militia units.
The problem is there is no practiced chain of command between these formations and Russian railway employees are not under SMO military discipline/punishments'.
3/
It requires the least amount of special launch infrastructure and training to use while breaking down into a small enough package that something like an SUV can move and recover it.
Most US drones fail this logistical capability test. 2/
Sailplane/compound helicopter drone designs gives you the ability to send small, high value, packages deep into enemy territory for all sorts of uses.
Well well, the Russian railway system collapse I've been talking about since October 2022 has arrived.
True, less because of rail truck cassette bearing shortages than the fact Ukraine's Kursk offensive has collapsed the Russian railway monopoly's administrative controls...
This is something I went deeply into in an April 2022 contractor logistical support thread to demonstrate the Biden Administration was slow rolling aid to Ukraine for "Escalation Management" reasons.
The Biden Administration is still at it in 2024 2/