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Aug 16 28 tweets 8 min read Read on X
‼️ Russia: Mass Power outage in Primorsky Krai

It did shut down the railways.

Here’s a thread about what *appears* to be the cause and what are the repercussions. Image
Here is nice summation of what is reported to have happened. I’m going to explain what it means

fontanka.ru/2024/08/16/739…
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We going to first be using this website which is the open infrastructure map (very handy) and hopefully it defaults to showing electrical infrastructure for you.

openinframap.org/#6.41/46.965/1…
The fault (electrical problem) was reported to occurs in relation to the 500kV transmission. That would be the stuff in purple.

High voltages are used for longer distance power transmission because there are less losses that way. This is really really high voltage. Image
This article indicated that the problem was a fault on a specific power line.

kommersant.ru/doc/6903416
Image
The power line described as having the fault is the 500kV power (in purple) between the Khekhtsir-2 substation and the Primorskaya GRES Power Plant.

I’ve shown them on picture

This is Russia’s most southern point on the Pacific coast. So it’s a dead end for the power grid. Image
As we zoom in on the Primorskaya GRES Power Plant, we can see that all of the connections to the rest of Russia’s power grid travel through this substation. (Like I said, dead end)

There is only one 500kV connection to the rest of Russia’s power grid and it had the fault. Image
When the fault occurred on that line, it caused frequency drop. This likely triggered the protection equipment at the Power Plant to stop trip.

This is what it’s supposed to do. Like tripping a breaker at home. Image
*sigh* I started trying to explain all the things that could have caused everything (or most of everything) to go off line south of this substation.
Then I realized it’s a lot, a most of you probably don’t care, and may get lost/lose/focus. I realize this is my jam, but maybe not yours. And I have been guilty of making people’s eyes glaze over.
I get deep into talking power stuff and my mother often declares “I’m mentally mast*rbating” and that I should get to the point.
Just know, there’s a lot of reasons it all goes down. Even if they can supply enough power to support themselves independently of the grid.

The trip will still occur.
Someone will need to go investigate the problem (what caused the trip).

These sorts of trips should be incredibly rare, (but Russia is Russia so who knows)
As long as they know that was the location of the fault AND they possess enough power generation capability WITHOUT needing that 500kV feed, then they should be able to begin restoring power without that feed.
But you can’t turn it all back on at once. Certain things LIKE TRANSFORMERS have large inrush currents.

That means that if you turned everything on at once, the power demand would be incredibly high, and things would trip again.

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inrush_cu…
So turning everything back on again takes time because of this.

This appears to be the situation that Primorsky Krai is in at the moment. They’ve got the substation online and they slowly turning everything else back on.
It’s unclear yet what the problem was with the transmission line OR if that issue has been resolved. They could be restarting without it, and it doesn’t look like there anything else that branches off from it.

But there are other impacts like THE RAILWAYS!
Train traffic in Primorsky Krai was suspended due to the outage.

This should be temporary. However…

kommersant.ru/doc/6894152
Image
If we look at the Open Railways Map (I’ve switched it to display by track gauges), we can see that there are a few important connections that were complicated.

For example the only rail connection to North Korea. And there’s rail connections to China.

openrailwaymap.org
Image
If I zoom out a bit, you can see why the Far East is a railway bottleneck. There isn’t enough infrastructure.

So if you consider the overall locomotive availability problem, transport through the Far East suffers from that AND traffic jams! 🍿
It gets worse… Image
Any of these gauge change locations between China and Russia have been problematic because stuff has to be moved from one train to another at these locations.

In addition there is a miss match between how long the train can be in Russia vs China. (It’s a mess) Image
In addition you have Vladivostok which is a port city.

When you look at the Eastern Russian Railway networks, you’ll see that there aren’t a lot of locations on the pacific for things to enter and exit via sea.

Vladivostok is one of them
Image
Image
You might be thinking “But Prune, you said this was just a temporary thing and things will go back online soon. What’s the big deal?”
The big deal is that the railways were already under stress.

And the area’s in the Far East are some of the most critical from Russian Railways as Russia tries to both reorient the commerce away from Europe to Asia AND avoid the HOUTHIS!

See, this is April
In addition, the whole network is under stress right now because of Ukraine’s Special Kursk operation.

Which I explained here
Is this one even going to cause Russian Railways to collapse? No, but it is like banging your funny bone while a dog is simultaneously biting off a piece of your leg.

🇺🇦: woof

You aren’t going to be that productive while it’s happening.
And they CAN’T CATCH UP. All of these things will continue add up further decreasing Russia’s loading for the year and thus their ENTIRE ECONOMY.

Once again

OVEREXTENDING THE LARGEST COUNTRY ON EARTH IS A VALID OFFENSIVE STRATEGY.
IT WILL GET WORSE

~ The End ~

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More from @Prune602

Aug 17
‼️ Russian agriculture update

This article has a lot of data in it about the current harvest but I want warn you about some points that may lead to misinterpretation.

interfax.ru/business/976916
Image
1. The amount of the crop isn’t the only thing that matters, the quality does too.

2. Many of the costs of production, transportation, and the amount of money the Russian Government takes has increased significantly too.
3. The warm temperatures very early in the year followed by a late May frost was devastating to agricultural. Russia HAS made efforts to replant those crops but there are drawbacks.
Read 8 tweets
Aug 16
‼️ Broad overview of impacts to Russian Railways as a result of Ukraine’s Special Kursk Operation

This is just a very basic guideline of things to look for, expect, and think about, when considering new information you may receive.
Think of it as a primer for critical thinking. Because the impacts could go further than you expect. (And reversing a lot of these things takes time too)
1. Ukraine holding Russian Railway assets & infrastructure denies Russia access to those resources.

They may be captured and taken to Ukraine or they maybe destroyed (either by Ukraine OR Russia)

Either way, those assets are temporary or permanently denied to Russia
Read 20 tweets
Aug 15
‼️ Russian OFZ Federal Bond Update Thread

👉 for Q3 Auction Day 7 (14 August 2024)

The Ministry of Finance completed both auctions placing 2 Constant Coupon Bonds for the first time since 15 May 2024

They placed 45.3 Billion Rubles this time on OFZ Bonds PD-26246 & PD-26248


Image
Image
Image
I’ve got a lot of supplementary data this time, so stay for that

But first, the usual:

If you have no idea why we watching this, please read this long thread that explains the economic situation Russia is in
And this thread will explain all the bits for how the table was made.

I STILL can’t access the Ministry of Finance’s website. (so annoying)
Read 72 tweets
Aug 15
‼️ RUSSIA: “Products of inflation
Manufacturers have begun to massively raise purchase prices”

This is between food producers and retailers.

“Companies expect to increase the cost of their product range by 5-40%” in August-September 2024.

kommersant.ru/doc/6893033
Image
Prices are going up for all the reasons: “High inflation, expensive loans, growing costs of logistics, personnel, packaging and raw materials”

Also realize that many of these companies may have delayed earlier price increases due to government pressure. Image
That’s a lot of companies Image
Read 10 tweets
Aug 14
‼️ WARNING: This may not mean what you think it does

“The volume of Russia's domestic government debt fell in July for the first time in two years”

👉 But that may be a BAD thing, if they can’t cover the deficit

interfax.ru/russia/976453
Image
Russia is REALLY far behind on meeting its bond sales goals.

This is probably why its domestic debt has dropped FOR NOW.

They’ve got a really big bill coming due at the end of the year and they haven’t secured financing (a loan) to cover it because they don’t like the rate. Image
The last time this happened was ALSO when OFZ (🇷🇺 Federal Bonds) sales/placements were low. Image
Read 7 tweets
Aug 14
This will block the most frequently used route of goods that are shipped by rail from China to Europe.

It’s still not a huge amount of goods, but it is (until now) the fastest mass shipping method from China to Europe (so excluding air traffic)
There are other routes, but they are slower and more costly. MOST shipping still occurs via boat, but it takes awhile (especially with the Houthis)

Usually only more expensive goods travel by rail.
Alternative rail route (avoiding Russia) through Central Asia and the Caucuses is 30% more expensive last I heard.
Read 5 tweets

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