The Ukrainians have damaged and destroyed bridges over the Seym river, in order to cut logistical routes to Glushkovo, Tetkino and other nearby areas.
However, the Russians have already constructed at least one temporary bridge over the river. 1/3
If the three bridges over Seym get completely destroyed, it could cause the Russians significant logistical issues.
However, there will most likely be more temporary bridges in all scenarios, as they want to avoid a local catastrophe. Those can of course be struck too. 2/3
Attacking Glushkovo could be a logical next step, if Ukraine wants to continue the offensive in new directions.
It's mainly just countryside without anything actually significant in there itself, but with good preparation, it could serve as a relatively potential land grab. 3/3
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The operation continues. Ukrainians have expanded their area of control, pushing north towards Lgov and east towards Belitsa.
We had to modify some map visualization styles to better represent the situation. 1/
Part of the Ukrainian focus seems to have shifted to the southeastern part of the AO, to the Belitsa direction.
Ukrainians have likely entered several villages between Belitsa and the state border. There are some uncertainities, as there's very little material from here. 2/
A Ukrainian APC detachment managed to go as far as to the village of Giri, next to Belitsa.
However, they suffered significant losses and likely had to retreat. Belitsa and the immediate surroundings are most likely still under Russian control. 3/
The operation has been ongoing for a almost a week. During the last days, Ukraine has not made very significant progress, but they have started solidifying their positions in the newly captured areas.
1/
As expected, it took Russia a few days to transfer units to the area, and they will likely continue to do so in the coming days. With their current forces, the Russians have managed to prevent any more serious breakthroughs from happening. Local counterattacks have started. 2/
Russians are likely still holding some central and eastern parts of Sudzha, while the Ukrainians are continuing operations in the area. In Martynovka, Russians counterattacked and likely pushed Ukrainians out of the village. Reportedly Ukrainians are trying to get it back. 3/
Ukrainians have pushed further in all directions. They have at least a partial control of Sudzha and they're pushing towards Koronevo-Rylsk direction.
Smaller detachments are operating on in the area of the Sudzha-Lgov road. 1/
It is unclear how large the Ukrainian area of control actually is, and what areas are so-called grey zones, where neither party has a solid control. The map is a conservative assessment - Ukrainians may control additional villages. OPSEC is still very tight. 2/
Some Ukrainian units were able to exploit the disorganized state of the Russian defences, and pushed further north towards Lgov. Most likely the Russians still don't have the situation under full control, and we may still see more areas fall to Ukrainians. 3/
The ongoing Ukrainian offensive in Kursk oblast has begun successfully.
In less than two days, Ukraine has achieved a breakthrough, pushing at least 12 kilometers deep, through two lines of Russian fortifications.
The Russians seem to be in a state of disarray. 1/
Why was this possible?
1. Failure of Russian military intelligence or leadership
2. Inadequate Russian border forces
3. Ukraine deciding to commit significant forces in Kursk instead of strengthening the east in order to stop the Russians in Toretsk and Pokrovsk directions
2/
The actual goals are still unclear. Ukraine might try to shift some of the Russian focus from other areas to Kursk. Ukraine may also seek better positions for future negotiations, if the purpose of the operation is to take over and hold land areas for a longer period of time. 3/
Russia has been able to advance unusually quickly in the Niu York-Toretsk direction, which has been a mostly static direction since 2022.
While breaching the Ukrainian defences there, Russia has also made additional gains in the villages around Ocheretyne. 1/
One of the main reasons for these rapid developments seems to be related to Ukrainian rotations.
In late June, AFU rotated the 24th Mechanized Brigade from the Toretsk-Niu York area to Chasiv Yar. 41st Mech from Chasiv Yar took over the positions in Toretsk-Niu York. 2/
Something went wrong, and the Russians were able to exploit the situation. It's not the first time when such developments are observed during rotations.
The 95th Air Assault Brigade and 32nd Mechanized Brigade have now been sent to the area to stabilize the situation. 3/
Russia’s operation on the northern side of Kharkiv has lasted over six weeks. There have been serious difficulties at both operational and strategic level.
While the offensive is stuck, satellite images show the Russians have begun fortifying the newly occupied areas. 1/🧵
The Kharkiv operation had three probable goals:
1. Create confusion and tie Ukrainian reserves to a secondary direction, so that progress could be made elsewhere
2. Form a “buffer zone” between Belgorod and Ukraine
3. Possibly get parts of Kharkiv within artillery range
2/
Russia was able to tie some Ukrainian forces to Kharkiv, but it wasn’t able to exploit the initial momentum elsewhere on the front. In this situation, Russia has to divide its forces and spend manpower on a less important area, while progress is slow everywhere. 3/