I think this critique is exactly right, so lemme try to put Harris's big econ speech in North Carolina in context next to Trump's big econ speech in North Carolina a couple of days ago...
1. Harris's econ speech was about the economy. Trump's econ speech barely mentioned the economy. Indeed, he had to keep reminding himself that he was meant to talk econ. He was rambling, incoherent, and said almost nothing recognizable as econ.
2. Harris's facts were true. ("a loaf of bread today costs 50% more than before the pandemic.")
Trump's "facts" were false. ("the cost of bacon, where it went up four and five times").
3. Harris promised specific policies (albeit in insufficient detail). Trump's promised policies were neither promises nor policies.
He promised "low inflation," but if you can't control it, you can't promise it.
And he announced a process, not a policy: "I will sign an executive order directing every cabinet secretary and agency head to use every tool and authority at their disposal to defeat inflation"
4. On healthcare: Harris promised a continuation of Obamacare, and renewed subsidies. Trump has promised to eliminate Obamacare, and since 2016 we've been told his replacement policy is coming "in two weeks."
The asymmetric nature of this campaign is challenging. Neither side has a perfect economic record, but the gap on one side is just so much larger than the other.
That asymmetry is surely the most important point, but it's hard to continually focus on it without sounding biased.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Lemme 'splain... There's two stories about the economy, and two sets of storytellers. There's the view from Wall Street, and the reality on Main Street. Financial markets tell you about the former, and economists are about the latter. Imma give you the economist's version.
And the truth is, when you dig into the economic numbers, the current economy is gloriously, splendidly, brilliantly... boring. This is what an economy that's returning to a healthy normal looks like.
On inflation, perspective matters. The pandemic led to a lotta craziness -- including inflation. But that spike is behind us, and inflation is most of the way back to normal.
I don't hate this policy as much as I thought I would bc this isn't traditional rent control.
Think of it as macro policy—setting a nominal anchor when the Fed's target isn't working—rather than as micro policy setting the relative price of housing.
The proposed controls appear not to apply to new construction. And so they still allow the price signal to provide an incentive for new construction.
Blunting price signal is bad — to the extent that it affects those at the margin. But this policy is mostly infra-marginal.
Also, these are price control on the rate of change of rent, rather than on its level. If *relative* prices are somewhat coherent now, and the policy is temporary, they'll stay somewhat coherent for at least a few years.
This striking pattern of Trump under-performing his poll numbers continues. According to 538, Trump was meant to win:
- Massachusetts by 37 (NYT says he's up by 23)
- Tennessee by 69 (he's up 57)
- Texas by 64 (he's up 56)
- Virginia by 49 (he's up by 29)
The exception:
- North Carolina by 46 (he's up 51)
Plus in those states with more sparse polling there's no 538 average. But the final Trump-Haley poll suggested Trump would win:
- Alabama by 75 (he's up 68)
- Oklahoma by 77 (he's up 66)
- Maine 58 by (he's up 47)
- Minnesota by 64 (he's up 41)
- Utah by 27 (he's up 14)
Most striking, of course, is Vermont.
There were two polls, and they put Trump up by +30 and +28, respectively. At this point the NYT says Haley will win, by about 4 points.
Yes kids, we are: The inflation measure the Fed targets (core PCE) has run at an annualized rate of 1.9% over the past six months, *below* the Fed's two percent target.
This isn't a one-off blip; it's six months of sustained low inflation.
Core PCE inflation over the past year was 3.2%, but that tells us a lot about what was happening in late 2022.
Over the past 6 months, inflation was 1.9%; over the prior 6 months it was 4.5%. As those high rates "fall out" of the 12 month window, year-ended inflation will fall.
Inflation is now lower than when President Biden took office.
There's no question people are telling pollsters they're miserable about the economy. But riddle me this: Why can't we find evidence of this pessimism in anything other that public opinion polls?
Every non-poll based indicator of confidence suggests folks are optimistic [thread]
Take consumption. If folks were worried about their economic future, you might think they would be squirrelling money away for the hard times coming. But they're spending like they expect ongoing economic strength.
Or investment. If our future were grim, businesses wouldn't want to invest to serve a shrinking market. But they're investing at robust rates.
Let's start with the claim "uncooked turkey" is 7.2% more expensive. That's actually the CPI for a broader category of "other uncooked poultry" which includes Turkey.
But turkeys? The USDA says the retail price of fresh Hens is down -7.6% and fresh Toms are down -8.1%
The observation that retail turkey prices is down is confirmed by the Farm Bureau, which says they're down -5.6%. fb.org/news-release/c…