Donetsk Oblast: Russian forces recently advanced near Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk.
1/ Russian forces recently advanced southeast of Chasiv Yar. Geolocated footage published on August 15 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced across the Siverskyi Donets Donbas Canal north of Ozaryanivka (southeast of Chasiv Yar).
2/ Russian forces recently advanced near Toretsk amid continued Russian offensive operations in the area on August 16. Geolocated footage published on August 16 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced southwest of Zalizne (southeast of Toretsk).
A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced to the mine waste heap on the southwestern outskirts of Pivnichne (east of Toretsk), which is consistent with ISW's assessed Russian advances in the area.
Ukrainian Toretsk City Military Administration Head Vasyl Chynyk stated that Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups are attempting to enter Toretsk itself and that Ukrainian forces are actively repelling these groups.
3/ Russian forces recently advanced east of Pokrovsk amid continued Russian efforts to tactically encircle Ukrainian forces southeast of Pokrovsk on August 16. Geolocated footage published on August 16 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced further within southeastern Hrodivka (east of Pokrovsk).
Russian milbloggers claimed on August 15 and 16 that Russian forces operating east of Pokrovsk advanced south of Vozdvyzhenka, east of Svyridonivka, west of Novotoretske, and east of Hordivka. Russian milbloggers claimed on August 16 that Russian forces operating southeast of Pokrovsk advanced southeast of Zhelanne and seized Mykolaivka. A Russian milblogger also claimed that Ukrainian forces are withdrawing from positions near Karlivka (southeast of Pokrovsk). ISW has not observed confirmation of these Russian claims, however.
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NEW: Ukrainian forces continued assaults throughout their salient in Kursk Oblast on August 18 and marginally advanced southeast of Sudzha.
Kursk Tactical Updates 🧵(1/10)
2/ Geolocated footage published on August 17 shows Russian forces striking a Ukrainian armored vehicle in northern Martynovka (northeast of Sudzha), indicating that Ukrainian forces recently advanced into northern Martynovka.
3/ A Russian milblogger claimed on August 18 that Ukrainian forces seized Troitskoye (south of Korenevo and roughly two kilometers from the international border) and advanced to Semenovka (north of Sudzha and roughly 24 kilometers from the international border).
Russian forces have overall occupied 1,175 square kilometers of territory throughout the entire Ukrainian theater in the seven months from January and July 2024, as ISW recently assessed. In stark contrast, ISW has observed claims that Ukraine's operation in Kursk Oblast advanced roughly 800 square kilometers over six days from August 6 to 12 and advanced roughly 28 kilometers deep as of August 17. (1/7)
2/ Again, the size of the area seized by Ukrainian forces is not an indicator of the success of that operation--it is offered here to show that restoring maneuver can produce much more rapid advances than positional warfare.
3/ The initial Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast attacked largely unprepared, unequipped, and unmanned Russian defensive positions along the border, but Ukraine has continued to leverage maneuver to make rapid advances in Kursk Oblast following the deployment of Russian reinforcements to the area.
The Russian military command appears to have abandoned its efforts to make rapid tactical gains in the Pokrovsk direction and embraced positional warfare. 🧵(1/12)
2/ The Russian military command tasked the Central Grouping of Forces with identifying and exploiting weaknesses in Ukraine's defensive line following the Russian seizure of Avdiivka in mid-February 2024.
3/ Mechanized elements of the Central Grouping of Forces achieved a notable tactical breakthrough northwest of Avdiivka in mid-April 2024 by exploiting exhausted and poorly equipped Ukrainian forces...
The scale of the war in Ukraine prevents either side from resolving the war in a single decisive campaign.
Effective campaign design requires forethought and planning for multiple successive operations that each set conditions for the subsequent operation.
🧵(1/13)
2/ In "Ukraine and the Problem of Restoring Maneuver in Contemporary War," ISW noted that both sides can establish deep defensive positions and reserves that will prevent any single campaign from achieving strategic war aims before it culminates.
3/ Russia's and Ukraine's ability to generate enough combat power to man continuous defensive positions with no open flanks and establish tactical depth at significant points along the frontline has forced both sides to attempt penetration battles that are so costly that subsequent exploitation is often not feasible.
Russia is almost certainly only considering a possible moratorium on energy strikes due to Ukraine's months-long strike campaign against Russian oil refineries — demonstrating a secondary effect of Ukraine's strike campaign. 🧵(1/7)
1/ Russia and Ukraine were reportedly planning to meet in Qatar in August 2024 to discuss a possible moratorium on Ukrainian and Russian strikes on energy infrastructure, but Russia temporarily postponed the summit after the start of the Ukrainian operation in Kursk Oblast.
2/ Russia and Ukraine were reportedly planning to meet in Qatar in August 2024 to discuss a possible moratorium on Ukrainian and Russian strikes on energy infrastructure, but Russia temporarily postponed the summit after the start of the Ukrainian operation in Kursk Oblast.
3/ Russia remains uninterested in any broader, meaningful negotiations regardless of Russia's willingness to entertain or agree to a possible moratorium on energy infrastructure strikes.
Ukrainian forces continue to marginally advance in Kursk Oblast amid ongoing Russian efforts to stop further Ukrainian advances and begin to push Ukrainian forces back across the international border.
2/ Russian milbloggers claimed on August 17 that Russian forces destroyed several bridges across the Seim River in Tetkino and Popovo-Lezhachi (both southwest of Korenevo and along the international border) to stop Ukrainian forces advancing from the international border...
3/ ...and that Ukrainian forces have consolidated positions in Otruba and up to the west bank of the river. A prominent Kremlin propagandist claimed that Ukrainian forces continued unspecified activity near Tetkino...