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James Blair Profile picture
@JamesBlairUSA
Aug 17, 2024 • 9 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
🧵 Well, not exactly. They actually clearly revealed how their thumb is on the scale and proved my point from the last round.

Let’s discuss:
In Georgia alone, NYT/Siena did it right this time.

They have a dead even split between Trump and Biden on the recalled 2020 vote.

Poll Result: Amongst registered voters, 🔴 Trump +7 (51-44) on 2024 head-to-head ballot in Georgia.
In Arizona & Nevada, their recalled 2020 vote between Trump & Biden looks nothing like 2020’s reported result.

If they did, the result would be:

AZ 🔴 Trump +3 (50-47)

NV 🔴 Trump +9 (53-44).
AZ 🔴 Trump +3

(Recalled 2020 Biden +7 on NYT/Siena poll vs. 2020 Reported Result Biden +0 = Trump +7 Gap)

Harris +4 on NYT/Siena ballot vs. Trump +7 reality gap = true Trump +3.
NV 🔴 Trump +9

(Recalled 2020 Biden +9 on NYT/Siena poll vs. 2020 Reported Result Biden +2 = Trump +7 Gap)

Trump +2 on NYT/Sienna ballot vs. Trump +7 reality gap = true Trump +9.
🔴 GA Trump +7

(Recalled 2020 Biden +0 on NYT/Siena poll vs. 2020 Reported Result Biden +0 = Trump +0 Gap)

Trump +7 on NYT/Sienna ballot vs. Trump +0 reality gap = true Trump +7.
Despite their understatement of President Trump’s 2020 support in these key states and an unrepresentative weighting scheme relative to their EV weights between the states surveyed, Trump still:

✅ Consistently over performs among black voters & age 18-29 voters.
✅ Trump has better fidelity amongst Registered Republicans AND 2020 supporters than Kamala does among registered Democrats and Biden 2020 voters.
🚨 Reminder, 4 days before the 2020 election, NYT/Siena polls had Trump trailing in Arizona by 6 (49-43), and eight days before the 2020 election they have President Trump trailing in Nevada by 6 (49-43).

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More from @JamesBlairUSA

James Blair Profile picture
Jul 10
Today I expressed my grave concern with the public allegations by others that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell was not honest with the Senate Banking Committee in his late June testimony about design features of the Federal Reserve’s Headquarters Renovation Project 🧵
Further, his suggestion during testimony that features described in public reports as excessive & opulent are no longer in the plans leads me to conclude the project is not in alignment with plans submitted to & approved by the National Capital Planning Commission in 2021
As such, I shared with my co-commissioners that I would be requesting a review of all previous and current building plans for Fed’s HQ renovation project and will be requesting a site visit to the project immediately.
Read 7 tweets
James Blair Profile picture
Aug 10, 2024
🚨Suppression Polls in Full Force, a 🧵:
Michigan: this poll has the recalled 2020 vote of registered voters at Biden +7. The actual reported 2020 result was Biden +3. Meaning, 4 point Left skew.

This poll has Trump +3 over Harris in the head-to-head amongst RV’s.

Reality: Trump +3 ballot PLUS Trump +4 ballot unskew = Trump +7 over Harris in Michigan.
PA: Poll has recalled 2020 vote at Biden +5. Actual 2020 reported result = Biden +1. Meaning, Left skew = 4 points.

This poll has Harris +3 in head-to-head of RV’s.

Reality:

Harris +3 ballot PLUS Trump +4 unskew = Trump +1 in Pennsylvania.
Read 7 tweets
James Blair Profile picture
Aug 8, 2024
The Fake News may never report on these facts, but the Team Trump ground game is 🔥🔥🔥

🧵Here are the facts:
We have:

• HUNDREDS of paid staff across Battleground States + currently hiring another wave of ~100.

• 300 Trump/GOP offices open across Battleground States,

• 12,000+ Trump Force 47 Captains trained across battleground states & will add over 2k+ per week between now & E-Day.
On top of our official efforts, word on the street is various outside groups have at least 1k+ combined paid canvassers in the field right now in Battleground States with likely 2,500+ by the time voting opens.
Read 6 tweets

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