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James Blair Profile picture
@JamesBlairUSA
Aug 17 • 9 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
🧵 Well, not exactly. They actually clearly revealed how their thumb is on the scale and proved my point from the last round.

Let’s discuss:
In Georgia alone, NYT/Siena did it right this time.

They have a dead even split between Trump and Biden on the recalled 2020 vote.

Poll Result: Amongst registered voters, 🔴 Trump +7 (51-44) on 2024 head-to-head ballot in Georgia.
In Arizona & Nevada, their recalled 2020 vote between Trump & Biden looks nothing like 2020’s reported result.

If they did, the result would be:

AZ 🔴 Trump +3 (50-47)

NV 🔴 Trump +9 (53-44).
AZ 🔴 Trump +3

(Recalled 2020 Biden +7 on NYT/Siena poll vs. 2020 Reported Result Biden +0 = Trump +7 Gap)

Harris +4 on NYT/Siena ballot vs. Trump +7 reality gap = true Trump +3.
NV 🔴 Trump +9

(Recalled 2020 Biden +9 on NYT/Siena poll vs. 2020 Reported Result Biden +2 = Trump +7 Gap)

Trump +2 on NYT/Sienna ballot vs. Trump +7 reality gap = true Trump +9.
🔴 GA Trump +7

(Recalled 2020 Biden +0 on NYT/Siena poll vs. 2020 Reported Result Biden +0 = Trump +0 Gap)

Trump +7 on NYT/Sienna ballot vs. Trump +0 reality gap = true Trump +7.
Despite their understatement of President Trump’s 2020 support in these key states and an unrepresentative weighting scheme relative to their EV weights between the states surveyed, Trump still:

✅ Consistently over performs among black voters & age 18-29 voters.
✅ Trump has better fidelity amongst Registered Republicans AND 2020 supporters than Kamala does among registered Democrats and Biden 2020 voters.
🚨 Reminder, 4 days before the 2020 election, NYT/Siena polls had Trump trailing in Arizona by 6 (49-43), and eight days before the 2020 election they have President Trump trailing in Nevada by 6 (49-43).

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More from @JamesBlairUSA

James Blair Profile picture
Aug 10
🚨Suppression Polls in Full Force, a 🧵:
Michigan: this poll has the recalled 2020 vote of registered voters at Biden +7. The actual reported 2020 result was Biden +3. Meaning, 4 point Left skew.

This poll has Trump +3 over Harris in the head-to-head amongst RV’s.

Reality: Trump +3 ballot PLUS Trump +4 ballot unskew = Trump +7 over Harris in Michigan.
PA: Poll has recalled 2020 vote at Biden +5. Actual 2020 reported result = Biden +1. Meaning, Left skew = 4 points.

This poll has Harris +3 in head-to-head of RV’s.

Reality:

Harris +3 ballot PLUS Trump +4 unskew = Trump +1 in Pennsylvania.
Read 7 tweets
James Blair Profile picture
Aug 8
The Fake News may never report on these facts, but the Team Trump ground game is 🔥🔥🔥

🧵Here are the facts:
We have:

• HUNDREDS of paid staff across Battleground States + currently hiring another wave of ~100.

• 300 Trump/GOP offices open across Battleground States,

• 12,000+ Trump Force 47 Captains trained across battleground states & will add over 2k+ per week between now & E-Day.
On top of our official efforts, word on the street is various outside groups have at least 1k+ combined paid canvassers in the field right now in Battleground States with likely 2,500+ by the time voting opens.
Read 6 tweets

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