Thread by @TrentTelenko

It's time for a Truck logistic thread on the Russian E105 N-S road traced on the map below.

Given the RuAF rail traffic seizure into and out of Kursk Oblast.

This road is the logistical "schwerpunkt," or center of gravity, for the Kursk offensive.

Schwerpunkt Blindness🧵
1/

Once the AFU get on the E105, the Belgorod garrison and everything South of it is toast for good logistical reasons.

This is a Kesselschlacht - kettle battle - on an operational scale.

2/

For reasons I went into in an earlier thread, the partially mechanized AFU truck logistics is lifting twice what Russian trucks can because AFU is using all terrain forklifts and pallets to load trucks.

3/

https://x.com/TrentTelenko/status/1824510358838473080

BLUF:

Mechanized logistics - pallets & forklifts - means manual labor loading time is converted to time the truck is on the road moving supplies.

4/

https://x.com/TrentTelenko/status/1824510385686557012

Top end Western mechanized truck logistics is roughly three times as productive lifting tons of military supplies per truck than RuAF trucks.

This is due to all the "logistical enablers" in the supply chain.

And these enablers are not simply pallets & forklifts.

5/

I went into great detail about what those enablers were in Feb 2023 - things like forklift loading docks - and how they were literally visible from space for Western intelligence & OSINT types on X, if they cared to look.

No one has.

6/

https://x.com/TrentTelenko/status/1627471413589286914

Mechanized logistical enablers aren't a hard thing to see.

If you look closely at the end of the FMTV cargo beds in the post below. The shadows cast by HIAB cranes on FMTV trucks fairly pop out.

7/

https://x.com/TrentTelenko/status/1627471420484644870

When you look at Russian logistical facilities from space after having your eyes calibrated to truck mechanized logistics what you see is...

...19th century archaic.

8/

https://x.com/TrentTelenko/status/1627471429435359236

That 19th century archaic logistical look is in every Russian logistical depot wherever you care to buy satellite photos of.

Yet Western Logistical intelligence has "mirror imaged" mechanized logistics on such photos, before spysats, for 80 years .

9/

https://x.com/little7bear/status/1043968963858911233

There are bad careerist reasons for this mirror image failure.

Most senior intelligence types only have room for one idea in their head - the present group-think consensus that is required for promotion - which flies out of their heads the moment they open their mouths.

10/

Once you get a critical mass of careerist groupthink in an institution.

Those who gate keep the groupthink attack and drive out competent people who are willing to look outside the group think.🤦‍♂️

Real competence is a threat to incompetent group thinkers.🤡

11/

The regular "OSINT Jihads" you see on X when the subject of Russian logistics "outside the group think" comes up is another example of this.

I've an impressive list of such 'OSINT Group Think Jihadist' accounts on X.

They are the ones that block me.🤣🤣🤣

12/

This behavior is the bureaucratic

"You can't fire us all defense"

...that government bureaucracies often adopt to protect their self-licking ice cream cone/bureaucratic iron rice bowl.

13/

All of this takes us back to the issue of "Schwerpunkt Blindness" about E105's role in AFU's Kursk campaign.

AFU can do two supply truck round trips to Russia's one.

This makes AFU far more operationally agile than RuAF units in a mobile operation.

14/

https://x.com/secretsqrl123/status/1824642193744630203

AFU's logistically superior mobile operations are forcing Russians into mass evacuations of civilians.

Evacuating civilians will block roads used by RuAF reinforcements heading South.

This is a WW2 Wehrmacht tactic used in Poland, the low countries & France in 1939-40.
15/

https://x.com/UKikaski/status/1824785374335390033

Civilian evacuations aside, the best Russian game plan is to bug the heck out this natural pocket ASAP.

And despite pro-Russian account's B.S. claims of blowing 3 bridges on the Seym river will stop AFU.

16/

Only three bridges proximate to the bridge the Ukrainian PSU dropped with a smart bomb are down.

There are many more bridges as you get closer to Kursk city proper, including one Russian army pontoon bridge near the one PSU bombed.

17/

When, not if, Ukraine closes the E105 with FPV drone fires or physical occupation. The RuAF position at Belgorod will logistically collapse.

It sure as heck looks like the AFU wants a buffer zone along the Russian border that includes Belgorod.

18/

If the AFU cuts the bridges around Kursk city, the whole Russian force is trapped South of the Seym river in a pocket.

It's one of the reasons why the Biden Administration is blocking the use of both ATACMS and British Storm Shadows inside of Russia.

19/thetimes.com/world/russia-u…

The top priority of the Escalation Management crowd & associated group thinkers in the USA & Germany is for Russia _NOT TO LOSE_.

Their careers depend on it!

Everything the Scholz and Biden governments do from now on should be looked at in this light.

20/

The natural barriers for this Ukrainian glacis of captured Russian territory are the Seym river and the Siversky Donetsk River just East of Belgorod City with the E105 as the Schwerpunkt for achieving it.

People like @JakeSullivan46 never saw this coming because the...
21/

...careerist senior Western Logistical intelligence group thinkers told @JakeSullivan46 & the NSC the lies they thought he wanted to hear.

This is the part of the 🧵where I get to throw my head back and laugh at all of them.

22/22 End

@JakeSullivan46 @threadreaderapp unroll please