This preprint (from April 5) is FASCINATING. Someone requested I have a look at it, and I'm glad they did, because it made SO MANY separate things suddenly make sense.

Here's a look at how a specific type of MICROCLOTS may be associated with LONG COVID pathology...

1/many Preprint posted April 5, 2024: "Increased fibrinaloid microclot counts in platelet-poor plasma are associated with Long COVID"  Abstract: "...The pathophysiology underlying Long COVID remains unclear but appears to involve multiple mechanisms including persistent inflammation, coagulopathy, autoimmunity, and organ damage. Studies suggest that microclots, also known as fibrinaloids, play a role in Long COVID. In this context, we developed a method to quantify microclots and investigated the relationship between microclot counts and Long COVID. We show that as a cohort, platele...
This thread will have three things:
- Takeaways of this study
- Breakdown of the method they developed
- How these findings connect with other known patterns

This is a study that looks at some rugged little blood clots that come courtesy of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein.

2/ "Studies suggest that microclots, also known as fibrinaloids, play a role in Long COVID by blocking capillaries, limiting oxygen exchange, and potentially causing microvascular pulmonary thrombosis and multiple organ failure. Amyloid-containing deposits, resembling microclots, have also been observed in increased numbers in muscle tissue biopsies from people with Long COVID compared to samples from controls, and these numbers increase after exercise, an important observation as many people with Long COVID experience post-exertional symptom exacerbation after activity. However, the depo...
Some important background info:

- FIBRINOGEN is a protein that just kinda hangs out in the blood, waiting.

- FIBRIN is a fibrous protein that forms a mesh to hold platelets together to form a blood clot.

- THROMBIN is the enzyme that converts FIBRINOGEN into FIBRIN.

3/ Fibrinogen + Thrombin = Fibrin (monomer)  The fibrin monomers aggregate to form a mesh.  Fibrin mesh + clotting factor = cross-linked mesh that's much more stable, and which contracts tightly.  Image source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Stabilisation_de_la_fibrine_par_le_factor_XIII.png
If you add thrombin to blood plasma "from people with various chronic inflammatory and neurodegenerative diseases," anomalous microclots can form that are "more resistant to breakdown than normal clots."

These can also be induced JUST by adding the spike protein to plasma.

4/ "Fibrinaloid microclots can be induced by adding thrombin in vitro to plasma samples from people with various chronic inflammatory and neurodegenerative diseases such as Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s, type 2 diabetes and rheumatoid arthritis. Following considerable work using electron microscopy (that uncovered ‘dense matted deposits’), it was demonstrated that tiny amounts (1 molecule per 100,000,000 fibrinogen molecules) of bacterial lipopolysaccharide causes blood to clot into an anomalous ‘amyloid’ type form... These ‘microclots’ are significantly more resistant to breakdown than normal...
These microclots may impair oxygen exchange in various ways, which would lead to a cascade of issues, and it's a plausible explanation for why PEM occurs. If the virus directly enters pulmonary vasculature through the mouth, these spike protein clots could be a huge problem.

5/ "Studies suggest that microclots, also known as fibrinaloids, play a role in Long COVID by blocking capillaries, limiting oxygen exchange, and potentially causing microvascular pulmonary thrombosis and multiple organ failure. Amyloid-containing deposits, resembling microclots, have also been observed in increased numbers in muscle tissue biopsies from people with Long COVID compared to samples from controls, and these numbers increase after exercise,...  An alternative hypothesis based on the radiological evidence of lung changes in acute COVID suggests that the oral cavity may provide...
In this study, they developed a new method to measure the microclot counts for individuals, then demonstrated "that as a cohort, samples from people with Long COVID have a higher mean microclot count compared to samples from control groups."

6/ "The primary goal of this study was to investigate the relationship between the microclot count present in PPP, and the occurrence of Long COVID. To determine microclot counts for individuals, we have developed a robust, medium-throughput assay using automated image analysis. In addition, relationships between microclots counts and sex, age, body mass index (BMI), time since COVID-19 infection, and symptoms of Long COVID were investigated. We demonstrate that as a cohort, samples from people with Long COVID have a higher mean microclot count compared to samples from control groups. We ...
What are the takeaways?

- Microclot counts are raised in the LC cohort compared to controls
- SARS-CoV-2 infection raises microclot counts, which "take several months to return to control levels."
- Microclots may be a biomarker to screen, or even a treatment target.

7/ "... Significant differences were seen between the COVID controls and Long COVID individuals (** = p < 0.01), between the uninfected controls and Long COVID individuals (**** = p < 0.0001) and between both groups of controls and individuals who had tested positive for COVID in the previous three weeks (**** = p < 0.0001, *** = p < 0.001).  ... We discovered that microclot counts were raised in Long COVID samples compared to controls and that recent COVID-19 cases also had raised counts. However, we also observed that not all people with Long COVID have microclot counts above levels obs...
What is the new method they devloped? It's a way to screen for microclots, and it specifically addresses a few potential issues with past studies.

In particular, the type of slidse typically used often have specks of reflective material about the size of the microclots!

8/ "Fibrinaloid microclots are known to consist of amyloid-like material and, hence, can bind to the amyloid-specific dye ThT. This dye intercalates with the Beta-sheet structure of amyloid material with a resultant shift in excitation emission and quantum yield. Existing assays have used a blood smear approach .... During the development of our method, we identified several processing issues that affected the observed microclot counts with this method. Firstly, we noticed that auto-fluorescent material was visible on untreated glass slides, comparable in size to previously reported micro...
Critically, they also found that leaving the blood tubes sitting around for an hour before separating out the components affected the microclot count, as did repeated freeze-thaw cycles.

So, they designed a method that was quick and had as little handling as possible.

9/ "We also identified processing issues relating to the handling and storage of the blood samples. We established that when whole blood tubes were left standing for more than an hour before centrifugation, the resulting PPP showed reduced or no microclot count. After observing this effect, to ensure the accuracy of our analysis, we only used PPP samples that were processed within 30 minutes of collection. Additionally, repeated freeze-thaw cycles of the PPP following processing also resulted in alterations in microclot counts. As such, PPP was stored in aliquots, and analysis was carried...
In this method, they're able to keep the blood samples in little wells, rather than smearing them on a slide. An imaging module focuses at different depths to capture a multi-layered image, and the microclots are then automatically identified and counted.

10/ "To optimise the efficiency of our process and minimise manual handling, we used 15-well µ-Slides that come pre-sealed and were handled in a dust-free flow cabinet. We also used low protein binding plasticware at all stages. Each PPP sample was imaged directly in the well of the slide, allowing us to obtain 3D images within approximately 10 minutes per well. To minimise variability, we took triplicate technical repeats and analysis parameters were set to automatically identify the boundaries of the well to remove edge effects (Figure 1). Figure 1A shows the captured image, whereas Figu...
Importantly, they did repeat data collection and found that they got consistent results up to six hours after initial data collection, which means it can be done with an autosampler.

This method seems robust both for research and, potentially, diagnostics.

11/ "...obtain 3D images within approximately 10 minutes per well. To minimise variability, we took triplicate technical repeats and analysis parameters were set to automatically identify the boundaries of the well to remove edge effects (Figure 1). Figure 1A shows the captured image, whereas Figure 1B shows the processed image and associated microclot counts, automatically identified by the software. Control experiments and repeat data collection on the same slide gave consistent results up to six hours after sample handling, allowing the use of an autosampler for medium throughput. The r...
What was found, specifically?

LC group has significantly higher clot counts compared to both uninfected controls and infected-but-no-LC controls.

Interestingly, there was ALSO significant difference in clot counts between the "recent COVID" group and other control groups.

12/ "Microclots in Long COVID samples vs control samples  Having developed a robust assay for the quantification of microclots in PPP samples, we determined the distribution of microclot counts in each of the four groups. Figure 2 shows the average microclot count for each individual. Within the groups, mean microclot counts can be determined for each of the cohorts with the Uninfected Control (mean 13.6 ÷ S.D. 7.4), COVID Control (20.7 ÷ 10.1), Long COVID (40.1 ÷ 28.1) and Recent COVID (50.5 ÷ 20.4) groups. Significantly higher mean microclot counts were observed in the Long COVID group c...
It's very notable that "only one [control] had a microclot count >50 while approximately half the LC group had counts above this level."

Also very interesting: there was a statistically significant difference in LC vs. control for microclot counts for women, but not men.

13/ "Strikingly, within the data is that only one outlier in the control groups had a microclot count >50 while approximately half the Long COVID group had counts above this level. However, there is overlap between the groups; although microclots are detectable in all samples from people with Long COVID, in about half of the samples the counts are similar to the counts observed in samples from controls.  Pooling the data from the two control groups, Figure 3 shows that female Long COVID participants had a significantly higher mean microclot count than female controls p < 0.0001 whereas no ...
The difference in immune response seen between men and women may pattern with what has been observed elsewhere (including a stronger innate immune response in men, but a more robust adaptive response in women).

14/ "Our study also found that females had more microclots, which is consistent with the fact that females are more affected by Long COVID. Most Long COVID patients experience severe fatigue, with the female sex group as an independent risk factor in alignment with our symptom data Female COVID-19 patients exhibit more robust T cell activation, in contrast, male patients have higher levels of innate immune cytokines and a greater presence of non-classical monocytes, potentially accounting for the sex differences in disease outcomes. Males, but not females, who have recovered from COVID-19 ...
Very notably, the "Recent COVID samples have microclot counts comparable to" around the *top 25% of the LC group!*

"Together, these data indicate that exposure to SARS-CoV-2 initially increases the microclot count..., but these microclots are cleared over time."

15/ "Recent COVID samples have microclot counts comparable to the upper quartile of the Long COVID group, indicating that recent exposure to the virus leads to higher microclot counts (Figure 2). Within the control group where we have the dates of a confirmed infection from either lateral flow of PCR a significant time dependent decrease in microclot count was observed (Figure 4, r = -0.628, p < 0.0001). By ~450 days post-infection, all samples were within the same range as the COVID control group (20.7 + 10.1). This indicates that the control group have a decrease in microclot counts to b...
IMO, this finding is a really strong explanation as to why there seems to be an increased risk of cardiac incidents in the 3-6 months following a SARS-CoV-2 infection: The presence of the spike protein may be creating microclots throughout the cardiovascular system!

16/
"Recent COVID samples have microclot counts comparable to the upper quartile of the Long COVID group, indicating that recent exposure to the virus leads to higher microclot counts (Figure 2). Within the control group where we have the dates of a confirmed infection from either lateral flow of PCR a significant time dependent decrease in microclot count was observed (Figure 4, r = -0.628, p < 0.0001). By ~450 days post-infection, all samples were within the same range as the COVID control group (20.7 + 10.1). This indicates that the control group have a decrease in microclot counts to b...
Figure 4 - Microclot count as a function of time since infection within the COVID control and recent COVID groups combined. Participants reported the date that they first experienced symptoms during their most recent COVID infection. A Pearson rank correlation showed a significant inverse relationship between microclot count and date of previous COVID infection (r = -0.628 and p < 0.0001).
How did the microclots relate to symptoms? Their questionnaire was basic, but they generally found the symptoms you'd expect being prominent in the LC group: fatigue, post-exertional malaise, difficulties concentrating, etc.

However, high microclots didn't GUARANTEE LC!

17/
"The self-reported symptom scores indicate that over 93% of the group experienced "Feeling tired or having low energy", 84% experienced symptoms triggered by physical, mental, or emotional effort, 93% experienced symptoms that occur one or two days after physical, mental, or emotional effort, and 93% experienced difficulty concentrating. These symptoms were experienced at a higher rate than other symptoms (figure 5). These symptoms are typical of post-exertional symptom exacerbation (PESE) and persistent fatigue, which are strongly associated with Long COVID. Using this sympt...
Figure 5 – Relationship of microclot counts to symptoms. Long COVID participants rated how much they had been affected by a range of symptoms, and were then split by group based on their response from “not bothered” green, “bothered a little” blue to “bothered a lot” orange. Individuals’ microclot counts were then plotted against these groups. Figures are ordered based on the percentage of participants reporting to be ‘bothered a lot’ by a symptom. Comparative analyses across study groups were conducted employing the Kruskal-Wallis tests to ascertain statistical differences, utilising PRISM...
So, do microclots cause LC? I mean, they probably don't *help*.

One possible explanation is that LC may reflect a persistent dysregulated state (e.g. a "pro-coagulable state"), and external intervention would be required to shift things back to normal.

18/ "It is not fully understood how microclotting could relate to the development of Long COVID symptoms. One theory is that the balance of 'clotting vs anticlotting' (i.e. fibrin formation vs fibrinolysis) is shifted towards clotting by SARS-COV2 infection. The longitudinal data presented here suggests that this 'balance' can be restored within 6 months in those that recover. However, a subgroup of people may have persistent microclots due to ongoing inflammation e.g. due to viral persistence or abnormal immune response, possibly combined with ineffective fibrinolysis, leading to a pro-co...
I think the "potential role of the spike protein in inducing amyloid formation and seeding microclots" is a FASCINATING possibility—especially given that there seems to be the possibility of a runaway process of consistent clotting.

(It may also explain vCJD!)

19/ "The potential role of the spike protein in inducing amyloid formation and seeding microclots is intriguing. An in vitro study has shown that spike protein spontaneously forms amyloid in the presence of elastase, an enzyme released by activated phagocytes. Cross-seeding between amyloid proteins and peptides has been observed in other situations, and the spike protein amyloid could act to induce micro clot assembly in a similar manner. Proteomics analysis shows complement proteins in microclots, which are known to activate neutrophils and could thereby increase elastase release.  Once t...
The authors also note that, since this is a new line of research, we have no idea what role microclots may play in other conditions—but they're beginning by investigating whether pwME have similar microclot profiles to pwLC!

I'm also very curious how EBV impacts clotting!

20/ "We did not investigate samples from people with other acute viral infections, and it is possible that microclots may be raised in response to other infections. This has implications for other post-viral conditions such as myalgic encephalomyelitis (ME), often associated with infection by Epstein-Barr virus, and we are currently investigating whether people with ME have similar microclot profiles to people with Long COVID."
Of course, this isn't the only way that the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein has been shown to cause cardiac damage: It may also lead to fusion of uninfected cells!

21/
Overall, the implications are significant. At the very least, I think this is a plausible explanation for why there are often cardiac issues *in the time period shortly after infection,* even if it doesn't explain LC!

Source: (h/t @JPeaceJPeace)

22/22medrxiv.org/content/10.110…

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More from @NickAnderegg

Aug 15
My thoughts on this new finding? AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

"The consumption of BW [bottled water] is associated with heightened risk for certain health conditions," such as:
- hypertension (+5% increased risk)
- diabetes (+9%)
- GI ulcers (+21%)
- kidney stones (+17%)

1/10 Published Aug 15, 2024 in IJERPH: "Consumption of Bottled Water and Chronic Diseases: A Nationwide Cross-Sectional Study"  Abstract: "...On average, a liter of bottled water includes about 240,000 tiny pieces of plastic. ... Utilizing data from the Italian National Institute of Statistics’ “Aspects of Daily Life” survey (N = 45,597), we employed logistic regression to explore the correlation between BW consumption and the prevalence of various chronic diseases,... Adjustments were made for covariates such as education, age, gender, and economic resources. Our analysis indicat...
This was a very large cross-sectional study that looked at a national population, conducted by Italy's census agency. They controlled for covariates including socioeconomic status, age, and gender, then clustered and stratified the population as appropriate.

Solid methods!

2/10
"Data on BW consumption were obtained from the “Aspects of Daily Life” survey on households, conducted by the Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT) [19]. ... The aim of the survey is to identify a variety of behavioral dimensions and aspects of daily life. ... We analyzed data from the 2021 edition of the survey, which included 45,597 individuals and 20,000 families, focusing on those who were 18 years or older at the time of the survey. ... a distinct stratum of municipalities with larger populations, labeled as self-representative (SR), and other municipalities, designated...
"The following variables were included in the analysis: educational level, age, gender, economical resources in the last 12 months, body mass index, smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity, hypertension, diabetes, presence of kidney stones, presence of gastric or duodenal ulcer."
Analysis is *conceptually* straightforward:

- They built models to understand how bottled water + EACH confounding variable interacts to impact health outcomes.
- They combined those models into one big model to analyze all the variables together for each possible outcome.

3/10 "Bivariate analyses were performed to study the association between BW consumption and relevant variables, using chi-square tests. Logistic regression models were developed to control for confounding variables and assess the factors independently linked with BW consumption (1 if BW consumption is present; 0 if not). ... In cases of poor fit, stepwise regression, using AIC and BIC criteria, was utilized to select between models and discriminate between covariates. Regarding health outcomes, we considered the dichotomized presence of the following chronic diseases: hypertension (1 = yes, ...
Read 20 tweets
Aug 9
New interdisciplinary review was published on current Long COVID science, with a roadmap for science and policy!

It is written in plain language, so it's worth a read on its own, but I just want to pull out some highlights about what WE DO KNOW into a single thread...

1/many Published Aug 9, 2024 in Nature Medicine: "Long COVID science, research and policy"  Abstract: "Long COVID represents the constellation of post-acute and long-term health effects caused by SARS-CoV-2 infection; it is a complex, multisystem disorder that can affect nearly every organ system and can be severely disabling. The cumulative global incidence of long COVID is around 400 million individuals, which is estimated to have an annual economic impact of approximately $1 trillion—equivalent to about 1% of the global economy. Several mechanistic pathways are implicated in long...
This is definitely the definition for Long COVID I'll be explicitly using from now on: Long COVID is "the constellation of post-acute and long-term health effects caused by SARS-CoV-2 infection."

2/ "Long COVID is best defined as the constellation of post-acute and long-term health effects caused by SARS-CoV-2 infection. Long COVID was initially reported by patients who coined the term and, through research and advocacy, drove much of the progress in understanding this condition over the past several years (Fig. 1)."
Long COVID "affects nearly every organ system, including the cardiovascular system, the nervous system, the endocrine system, the immune system, the reproductive system, and the gastrointestinal system."

It affects people regardless of age or pre-existing health status.

3/ "Long COVID is a complex, multisystem disorder that affects nearly every organ system, including the cardiovascular system, the nervous, the nervous system, the endocrine system", the immune system, the reproductive system and the gastrointestinal system. It affects people across the age spectrum (from children 6-18 to older adults), people of different race and ethnicities, sex and gender, and baseline health status. Cardinal manifestations include brain fog (or cognitive dysfunction), fatigue, dysautonomia (which commonly manifests as postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome (P...
Read 30 tweets
Aug 7
Can't believe I missed this!

This review/commentary piece makes one thing extremely clear: We do not yet have ANY STRONG EVIDENCE about how SARS-CoV-2 infection affects PREGNANCY.

The limited evidence shows there IS harm, which may be MITIGATED by vaccination.

Thread...
1/ Published July 11, 2024 in eClinicalMedicine: "In need of robust evidence of non-association of pregestational and early pregnancy SARS-CoV-2 infections with congenital anomalies"  Abstract: "SARS-CoV-2 infection during pregestational and early pregnancy periods has an unclear impact on fetal development. ..., potential effects on the developing fetal brain are plausible. ... This is further complicated by limitations, such as restricted testing access and undiagnosed infections, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. Most data focus on hospitalized women near term...
What is the takeaway? There are three:

- Unanswered questions remain about the effect of SARS-CoV-2 on pregnancy.
- Evidence shows congenital anomalies MAY be associated with COVID.
- Evidence shows vaccination provides "protection from such anomalies."

2/
"Conclusion  There is a need for data collection regarding pregestational maternal SARS-CoV-2 infection and its association with future pregnancies. Given the relative rarity of intraplacental transmission of SARS-CoV-2, we will need large epidemiological studies to answer these questions. We should also stay vigilant, monitoring past infections and the effects of emerging strains in assisted reproductive technologies (ART) and early pregnancy outcomes.  Although we need better data on miscarriages, it should be noted that there is no association between COVID-19 vaccination and miscar...
"Of note, studies have demonstrated there were significant differences in eye, ear, face, and neck anomalies between the vaccinated and not vaccinated groups, showing vaccination protection from such anomalies. Similarly, it has been shown that COVID-19 vaccination is not related to nonsyndromic orofacial cleft and might protect against having a child affected with such congenital anomalies.  Thus, the data presented here should by no means be interpreted as associated with the vaccines, but the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2 infection.  Comprehensive systematic reviews and meta-analyses ...
Let's be very clear: The current lack of evidence isn't because there is a lack of harm; it is because there is a lack of DATA available to even begin to understand the harm.

There is almost no available data on the impact of COVID on first- and second-trimester pregnancies.

3/
"Introduction  The impact of pregestational and maternal SARS-CoV-2 infection during early pregnancy on the developing fetus is poorly understood. Although vertical transmission is rare, an effect on the developing fetal brain remains plausible. Robust evidence on any association between maternal SARS-CoV-2 infection and the risk of congenital anomalies in offspring is, however, limited. This is due to inadequate tracking of pregestational maternal SARS-CoV-2 infection history and infection during early pregnancy, along with methodological limitations in relevant published studies."
"The significant proportion of undetected or undiagnosed SARS-CoV-2 infections during early pregnancy, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), due to limited access to testing and information, further complicates this issue. Most available data pertain to hospitalised pregnant women near term, with very little information on the outcomes of first- and second-trimester infections separately. Therefore, there is a clear need to accurately assess the impact of COVID-19 on congenital anomalies."
Read 10 tweets
Aug 6
THIS IS BIG. WOW. New paper in PLOS Pathogens has findings about:
- the effect of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein on cardiac cells (and mitochondrial dysfunction!),
- a treatment to be investigated, and
- how this is NOT caused by mRNA vaccines!

Buckle up, we're diving in...

1/ Published August 5, 2024 in PLOS Pathogens: "SARS-CoV-2 spike-induced syncytia are senescent and contribute to exacerbated heart failure"  "Author Summary  In this paper, we directly linked SARS-2-S-triggered syncytium [fused cells] formation in the absence of infection with the ensuing induction of cellular senescence and its pathophysiological contribution to heart failure. We propose that both SARS-2-S expression and SARS-2-S protein internalization were sufficient to induce senescence in nonsenescent ACE2expressing cells. This is important because of the persistent existe...
[This paper is an uncorrected proof; it's been peer-reviewed, but not copyedited yet.]

A bit of background: syncytia (sin-sih-sha) are giant cells with multiple nuclei that form from the fusion of multiple cells. Viral infections are a common cause of syncytia.

2/
"Abstract  SARS-CoV-2 spike protein (SARS-2-S) induced cell–cell fusion in uninfected cells may occur in long COVID-19 syndrome, as circulating SARS-2-S or extracellular vesicles containing SARS-2-S (S-EVs) were found to be prevalent in post-acute sequelae of COVID-19 (PASC) for up to 12 months after diagnosis. ... Here, we found that the senescent outcome of SARS-2-S induced syncytia exacerbated heart failure progression. We first demonstrated that syncytium formation in cells expressing SARS-2-S delivered by DNA plasmid or LNP-mRNA exhibits a senescence-like phenotype. Extracellular ...
NIH > National Library of Medicine Medical Subject Headings MeSH Descriptor Data 2024  Giant Cells (aka syncytia)  Multinucleated masses produced by the fusion of many cells; often associated with viral infections. In AIDS, they are induced when the envelope glycoprotein of the HIV virus binds to the CD4 antigen of uninfected neighboring T4 cells. The resulting syncytium leads to cell death and thus may account for the cytopathic effect of the virus.  Entry Term(s): Giant Cells, Multinucleated; Multinucleated Giant Cells; Polykaryocytes; Syncytia; Syncytium;
The authors had two motivations for this study:

1. Cardiac complications are a major feature of COVID.
2. Patients with heart failure tend to experience very poor outcomes from COVID.

Really, it hasn't been entirely clear *how* COVID leads to heart failure... until now?

3/ "Introduction  ...Although symptoms resulting from infection typically resolve within weeks, some individuals experience persistent symptoms following the acute phase of COVID-19, the so-called post-acute sequelae of COVID-19 (PASC) or long COVID [2–4]. SARS-CoV-2 infection predominantly offends the respiratory system. Currently, evidence has suggested cardiac complications as one of the important pathogenic features of COVID-19 [5,6]. More importantly, compared with patients without heart failure, those with diagnosed heart failure experienced a longer length of hospital stay, increas...
Read 30 tweets
Aug 4
New preprint on the PATHOGENICITY of H5N1 was published yesterday, and... it's not good news, but it's definitely not *terrible* news either!

The delayed, lackluster response to the current outbreak remains DEEPLY concerning.

Here's a summary for a general audience!

1/many
Preprint published August 3, 2024: "Enhanced replication of contemporary human highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 virus isolate in human lung organoids compared to bovine isolate"  Abstract  "We compared virus replication and host responses in human alveolar epithelium infected with highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 viruses. A/Vietnam/1203/2004 replicated most efficiently, followed by A/Texas/37/2024, then A/bovine/Ohio/B240SU342/2024. Induction of interferon-stimulated genes was lower with A/Texas/37/2024 and A/bovine/Ohio/B24OSU-342/2024, which may indicate ...
They test three H5N1 isolates. I'll refer to them as:

- Texas: Isolated from worker at Texas dairy farm (A/Texas/37/2024)
- Bovine: Isolated from dairy cow (A/bovine/Ohio/B24OSU-342/2024)
- Vietnam: Isolated from fatal 2004 human infection in Vietnam (A/Vietnam/1203/2004)

2/
"As of July 25, 2024, 13 human cases of HPAI H5N1 virus infection have been confirmed in the United States (3). Several of these cases are linked to exposure to infected cattle. However, recent outbreaks in Colorado have resulted in identification of additional human cases linked to infected poultry (3). Virus isolated from a worker at a Texas dairy farm (A/Texas/37/2024) was shown to be closely related to viruses circulating in cattle, and it is presumed that this case is a result of direct cow-to-human transmission (4). Reported symptoms included conjunctivitis, as well as mild respi...
"This is in stark contrast to prior cases of HPAI H5N1 virus infection in humans, which resulted in severe respiratory disease and mortality rates upwards of 50% (6). In order to assess the risk of developing severe disease following infection with contemporary HPAI H5N1 virus, we evaluated virus replication, host cell survival, and induction of innate immune responses in human alveolar epithelium infected with A/Texas/37/2024 or cattle isolate A/bovine/Ohio/B24OSU-342/2024, compared to a historical H5N1 isolate A/Vietnam/1203/2004, which was derived from a fatal human case (7)."
This study looked at pathogenicity, which is, basically, the ability of a virus to fuck up your cells, organs, or body, as determined by some measurable indicator of damage.

It's one of those concepts that's so broad that it's useful to include a formal definition:

3/
NIH > National Library of Medicine  MeSH (Medical Subject Headings)  Virulence (synonym-ish for "pathogenicity")  The degree of pathogenicity within a group or species of microorganisms or viruses as indicated by case fatality rates and/or the ability of the organism to invade the tissues of the host. The pathogenic capacity of an organism is determined by its VIRULENCE FACTORS.
NIH > National Library of Medicine  MeSH (Medical Subject Headings)  Virulence (Preferred):  The degree of pathogenicity within a group or species of microorganisms or viruses as indicated by case fatality rates and/or the ability of the organism to invade the tissues of the host. The pathogenic capacity of an organism is determined by its VIRULENCE FACTORS.  Pathogenicity (Related):  The capacity of a microorganism to cause disease.
Read 17 tweets
Aug 4
This isn't a major paper, but it's an interesting jumping-off point for three different topics:

- Accuracy of RATs—in practice
- Understanding what descriptive (incl. Bayesian) statistics mean
- HOW rapid tests work

Here's a thread written for a general audience!

1/ Published Aug 2, 2024 in PLOS ONE: "Evaluation of COVID-19 rapid antigen test against polymerase chain reaction test in immunocompromised patients"  Abstract: "... Patients with Ct value less than 20, had the highest detection rate which is consistent with other studies in the literature. The sensitivity and specificity of Panbio Rapid Antigen testing were of 69.9% and 100%, respectively. A correlation between age group and false negative results could not be made, but a correlation between Ct value and false negative result was noticed, Ct value was directly related to false...
This study was conducted from January 2020 to June 2021 using admission screening swabs from 556 oncology patients at a single hospital in Jerusalem.

The patients in this study were swabbed for both PCR and RAT, allowing for comparison of the detection ability.

2/ "Materials and methods Study design  This prospective study was conducted on 556 patients evaluated at Augusta Victoria Hospital (AVH) between January 2020 and June 2021. Patients’ age range was from 1 month to 90 years of age with an average age of 41.8 years. Of the 556 patients, 481 (86.5%) were adult patients and 75 (13.5%) were pediatric patients. with an overall male to female ratio of 1:1.04.  Patients arriving at AVH with any signs of respiratory symptoms, were simultaneously evaluated for the presence of SARS-CoV-2 antigens by Panbio TM COVID-19 Ag Rapid Test Device and for th...
The takeaway is simple: The Rapid Antigen Test (RAT) used here had a sensitivity of 69.6%.

Sensitivity is the *true positive* rate. This means that, out of the patients who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 using qRT-PCR testing, only 69.6% were *also* positive on the RAT.

3/ "Results Panbio TM COVID-19 Test Device clinical sensitivity and specificity  Of the 556 patient’s analyzed NPS, 112 (20.1%) samples were positive by the Allplex TM SARSCoV-2 Assay, while 78 (16.3%) were positive by the Panbio TM COVID-19 assay. Thirty-four samples were negative by Panbio TM COVID-19 Ag Rapid Test Device and positive by the Allplex TM SARS-CoV-2 Assay. Thus, the overall sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) were, 69.6%, 100%, 100%, and 92.9%, respectively."  ---  Characteristics of Panbio Rapid Antigen Test ...
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